Producer Inflation in 2014: Energy Prices Drop but Prices for Services Advance

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. The PPI provides measures of final demand (price changes for goods, services, and construction sold to consumers, capital investment buyers, government, and export) and intermediate demand (price changes for goods, services, and construction sold to businesses, excluding capital investment goods, as inputs to production). This issue of Beyond the Numbers describes price changes in PPIs throughout 2014. Falling energy prices and rising services prices were some of the top movers in 2014

Improvements to the Producer Price Index measure: The Final-Demand-Intermediate-Demand System

[Excerpt] The release of January 2014 Producer Price Index (PPI) data marks the transition from the Stage of Processing (SOP) aggregation system to the Final Demand–Intermediate Demand (FD–ID) aggregation system. The transition to the FD– ID system is the culmination of a longstanding PPI objective to improve upon the SOP aggregation system by incorporating price data for services, construction, government purchases, and exports. In comparison to the SOP system, the FD-ID system more than doubles PPI coverage of the U.S. economy to over 75 percent of in-scope domestic production. This issue of Beyond the Numbers presents 2013 PPI data based on the new FD–ID system. The PPI estimates shown with this system represent the beginning of wider coverage by the index, to be continued in subsequent issues

Producer Prices in 2015: Services Inflation Slows, Goods Prices Continue to Decrease

[Excerpt] The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. The main PPI measure of inflation, the Final Demand- Intermediate Demand (FD-ID) System, measures final demand inflation (price changes for goods, services, and construction sold to consumers, capital investment, government, and export buyers) and intermediate demand inflation (price changes for goods, services, and construction sold to businesses as inputs to production, excluding sales of capital investment). This issue of Beyond the Numbers describes PPI price movements in 2015

Nonparametric Copula Models for Mixed Data with Informative Missingness

Modern datasets commonly feature both substantial missingness and variables of mixed data types, which present significant challenges for estimation and inference. Complete case analysis, which proceeds using only the observations with fully-observed variables, is often severely biased, while model-based imputation of missing values is limited by the ability of the model to capture complex dependencies and accommodate mixed data types. To address these challenges, we develop a novel Bayesian mixture copula for joint and nonparametric modelling of count, continuous, ordinal, and unordered categorical variables, and deploy this model for inference, prediction, and imputation of missing data. Most uniquely, we introduce a new and efficient strategy for marginal distribution estimation, which eliminates the need to specify any marginal models yet delivers strong posterior consistency for both the marginal distributions and the copula parameters even in the presence of informative missingness (i.e., missingness-at-random). Extensive simulation studies demonstrate exceptional modeling and imputation capabilities relative to competing methods, especially with mixed data types, complex missingness mechanisms, and nonlinear dependencies. We conclude with a data analysis that highlights how improper treatment of missing data can distort a statistical analysis, and how the proposed approach offers a resolution.Comment: 60 pages, 18 figures, 2 table

Survival of people aged 50 years and older by HIV and HIV treatment status: findings from three waves of the SAGE-Wellbeing of Older People Study (SAGE-WOPS) in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Data on the survival status of older adults on antiretroviral treatment (ART) are scarce in sub-Saharan Africa. The objective of this study was to determine the survival status of people aged 50 years and older who were HIV-negative, HIV-positive not on ART, and HIV-positive on ART. METHODS: We used three waves of data from the World Health Organisation Study on Global Ageing and adult health- Well Being of Older People Study cohort in Uganda, conducted in 2009, 2012-2013 and 2015-2016. The cohort included HIV-negative and HIV-positive persons aged 50 years and older recruited from multiple rural and peri-urban sites in Uganda. Data were collected using interviewer-administered questionnaire. Time-dependent ART data were collected from medical records using a data-abstraction form. This study was conducted before the universal test and treat policy came into effect. We fitted Cox survival models to estimate hazard ratios to compare the risk of death between groups, adjusted for age, sex, marital status and hypertension. RESULTS: Of 623 participants, 517 (82.9%) of respondents had follow-up data and were included in this analysis. We observed 1571 person-years of follow-up from 274 people who were HIV-negative, and 1252 from 243 who were HIV-positive. The estimated mortality adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) was 1.89 (95% CI 1.0-3.4; p = 0.04) among people living with HIV compared to HIV-negative people. The aHR for mortality among people receiving ART compared with HIV-negative people was 1.75 (95% CI 0.9-3.5). People who were HIV-positive and not receiving ART had the greatest risk of death (aHR = 2.09, 95% CI 1.0-4.4 compared with HIV negative participants). The aHR for HIV-positive people not receiving ART, compared to those who were on treatment, was 1.19 (95% CI 0.6-2.5). CONCLUSION: Older adults living with HIV on ART had a risk of mortality that was nearly twice as high as HIV-negative adults. Further analyses of longitudinal data should be done to understand factors that affect the survival of older adults on ART

Chronic disease, risk factors and disability in adults aged 50 and above living with and without HIV: findings from the Wellbeing of Older People Study in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Data on the prevalence of chronic conditions, their risk factors, and their associations with disability in older people living with and without HIV are scarce in sub-Saharan Africa. OBJECTIVES: In older people living with and without HIV in sub-Saharan Africa: 1) to describe the prevalence of chronic conditions and their risk factors and 2) to draw attention to associations between chronic conditions and disability. METHODS: Cross-sectional individual-level survey data from people aged 50 years and over living with and without HIV were analyzed from three study sites in Uganda. Diagnoses of chronic conditions were made through self-report, and disability was determined using the WHO Disability Assessment Schedule (WHODAS). We used ordered logistic regression and calculated predicted probabilities to show differences in the prevalence of multiple chronic conditions across HIV status, age groups, and locality. We used linear regression to determine associations between chronic conditions and the WHODAS. RESULTS: In total, 471 participants were surveyed; about half the respondents were living with HIV. The prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and eye problems (except for those aged 60-69 years) was higher in the HIV-positive participants and increased with age. The prevalence of diabetes and angina was higher in HIV-negative participants. The odds of having one or more compared with no chronic conditions were higher in women (OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.1-2.3) and in those aged 70 years and above (OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.2-3.6). Sleep problems (coefficient 14.2, 95% CI 7.3-21.0) and depression (coefficient 9.4, 95% CI 1.2-17.0) were strongly associated with higher disability scores. CONCLUSION: Chronic conditions are common in older adults and affect their functioning. Many of these conditions are not currently addressed by health services in Uganda. There is a need to revise health care policy and practice in Uganda to consider the health needs of older people, particularly as the numbers of people living into older age with HIV and other chronic conditions are increasing

Social engagement and survival in people aged 50 years and over living with HIV and without HIV in Uganda: a prospective cohort study.

This study examined the association between social engagement and survival in people with or without HIV aged 50 years and over in Uganda. We analysed two waves of a survey from two sites in Uganda to assess predictors of mortality between waves. The first wave was conducted between 2009 and 2010 while the second wave was conducted between 2012 and 2013. A standardised questionnaire adapted from the World Health Organization study on global AGEing and adult health (SAGE) was administered through face-to-face interviews at both survey waves. Cox proportional hazards models and Nelson-Aalen cumulative hazards functions were used to investigate associations between the strength of participants' social ties, using distance and intimacy metrics, and their social engagement with mortality between waves. Of the original 510 participants, 63 (12.3%) died between waves. Being more socially engaged and able to provide in-kind or financial contributions to family or friends were protective. After adjusting for covariates neither social tie measure was predictive of mortality. There were no significant differences in social engagement and survival by HIV status. Further research is needed in African settings on the relationship between social relationships and subsequent mortality in older adults to assess if improved social relationships could moderate mortality

Marjolin's ulcers at a university teaching hospital in Northwestern Tanzania: a retrospective review of 56 cases

Marjolin's ulcer is a rare but highly aggressive squamous cell cancer that is most often associated with chronic burn wounds. Although many individual case reports exist, no comprehensive evaluation of Marjolin's ulcer patients has been conducted in our setting. This study was conducted to describe the clinicopathological presentation and treatment outcome of this condition in our local setting and to identify predictors of outcome. This was a retrospective study of histologically confirmed cases of Marjolin's ulcer seen at Bugando Medical Centre over a period of 10-years between January 2001 and December 2010. Data were retrieved from patients' files and analyzed using SPSS computer software version 15.0 A total of 56 patients were studied. Male to female ratio was 2.1:1. Burn scars (89.3%) were the most common causative lesions of Marjolin's ulcer. The mean latent period between original injury and diagnosis of Marjolin's ulcer was 11.34 ± 6.14 years. Only 12.0% of the reported cases were grafted at the time of injury (P < 0.00). Most patients (48.2%) presented between one and five years of onset of illness. The lower limb (42.9%) was the most frequent site for Marjolin's ulcers. The median tumor size at presentation was 8 cm and the vast majority of patients (85.7%) presented with large tumors of ≥ 5 cm in diameter. Lymph node metastasis at the time of diagnosis was recorded in 32.1% of cases and distant metastasis accounted for 26.9% of cases. Squamous cell carcinoma (91.1%) was the most common histopathological type. Wide local excision was the most common surgical procedure performed in 80.8% of cases. Post-operative complication rate was 32.1% of which surgical site infection was the most common complication in 38.9% of patients. Local recurrence was noted in 33.3% of cases who were treated surgically. The mean length of hospital stay for in-patients was 7.9 ± 2.3 days. Mortality rate was 7.1%. According to multivariate logistic regression analysis, stage and grade of the tumor and presence of local recurrence were the main predictors of death (P < 0.001). Marjolin's ulcers are not rare in our environment and commonly occur in burn scars that were not skin grafted and were left to heal secondarily. A high index of suspicion is required in the management of chronic non-healing ulcers and all suspected lesions should be biopsed. Early recognition and aggressive treatment of Marjolin's ulcers and close follow-up are urgently needed to improve outcomes in our environment

Predictors of Enhancing Human Physical Attractiveness: Data from 93 Countries

People across the world and throughout history have gone to great lengths to enhance their physical appearance. Evolutionary psychologists and ethologists have largely attempted to explain this phenomenon via mating preferences and strategies. Here, we test one of the most popular evolutionary hypotheses for beauty-enhancing behaviors, drawn from mating market and parasite stress perspectives, in a large cross-cultural sample. We also test hypotheses drawn from other influential and non-mutually exclusive theoretical frameworks, from biosocial role theory to a cultural media perspective. Survey data from 93,158 human participants across 93 countries provide evidence that behaviors such as applying makeup or using other cosmetics, hair grooming, clothing style, caring for body hygiene, and exercising or following a specific diet for the specific purpose of improving ones physical attractiveness, are universal. Indeed, 99% of participants reported spending \u3e10 min a day performing beauty-enhancing behaviors. The results largely support evolutionary hypotheses: more time was spent enhancing beauty by women (almost 4 h a day, on average) than by men (3.6 h a day), by the youngest participants (and contrary to predictions, also the oldest), by those with a relatively more severe history of infectious diseases, and by participants currently dating compared to those in established relationships. The strongest predictor of attractiveness-enhancing behaviors was social media usage. Other predictors, in order of effect size, included adhering to traditional gender roles, residing in countries with less gender equality, considering oneself as highly attractive or, conversely, highly unattractive, TV watching time, higher socioeconomic status, right-wing political beliefs, a lower level of education, and personal individualistic attitudes. This study provides novel insight into universal beauty-enhancing behaviors by unifying evolutionary theory with several other complementary perspectives