Characteristics of Vehicular Traffic Flow at a Roundabout

We construct a stochastic cellular automata model for the description of vehicular traffic at a roundabout designed at the intersection of two perpendicular streets. The vehicular traffic is controlled by a self-organized scheme in which traffic lights are absent. This controlling method incorporates a yield-at-entry strategy for the approaching vehicles to the circulating traffic flow in the roundabout. Vehicular dynamics is simulated within the framework of the probabilistic cellular automata and the delay experienced by the traffic at each individual street is evaluated for specified time intervals. We discuss the impact of the geometrical properties of the roundabout on the total delay. We compare our results with traffic-light signalisation schemes, and obtain the critical traffic volume over which the intersection is optimally controlled through traffic light signalisation schemes.Comment: 10 pages, 17 eps figures. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:cond-mat/040107

Characterising University WLANs within Eduroam Context

The eduroam initiative is assuming an ever growing relevance in providing a secure, worldwide roaming access within the university WLAN context. Although several studies have focused on educational WLAN traffic characterisation, the increasing variety of devices, mobility scenarios and user applications, motivate assessing the effective use of eduroam in order to sustain consistent network planning and deployment. Based on recent WLAN traffic traces collected at the University of Minho (Portugal) and University of Vigo (Spain), the present work contributes for identifying and characterising patterns of user behaviour regarding, for instance, the location and activity sector of users. The results of data analysis quantify the impact of network access location on the number of associated users, on the number and duration of sessions and corresponding traffic volumes. The results also illustrate to what extent users take advantage of mobility in the WLAN. Complementing the analysis on a monthly basis, a fine grain study of WLAN traffic is provided through the identification of users' behaviour and patterns in small timescales

Statistical mixing and aggregation in Feller diffusion

We consider Feller mean-reverting square-root diffusion, which has been applied to model a wide variety of processes with linearly state-dependent diffusion, such as stochastic volatility and interest rates in finance, and neuronal and populations dynamics in natural sciences. We focus on the statistical mixing (or superstatistical) process in which the parameter related to the mean value can fluctuate - a plausible mechanism for the emergence of heavy-tailed distributions. We obtain analytical results for the associated probability density function (both stationary and time dependent), its correlation structure and aggregation properties. Our results are applied to explain the statistics of stock traded volume at different aggregation scales.Comment: 16 pages, 3 figures. To be published in Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experimen

Combining intensive practice nurse counselling or brief general practitioner advice with varenicline for smoking cessation in primary care: study protocol of a pragmatic randomized controlled trial

Introduction: Combining behavioural support and pharmacotherapy is most effective for smoking cessation and recommended in clinical guidelines. Despite that smoking cessation assistance from the general practitioner can be effective, dissemination of clinical practice guidelines and efforts on upskilling has not lead to the routine provision of smoking cessation advice among general practitioners. Intensive counselling from the practice nurse could contribute to better smoking cessation rates in primary care. However, the effectiveness of intensive counselling from a practice nurse versus usual care from a general practitioner in combination with varenicline is still unknown. Materials and methods: A pragmatic randomized controlled trial was conducted comparing: (a) intensive individual counselling delivered by a practice nurse and (b) brief advice delivered by a general practitioner; both groups received 12-weeks of open-label varenicline. A minimum of 272 adult daily smoking participants were recruited and treated in their routine primary care setting. The primary outcome was defined as prolonged abstinence from weeks 9 to 26, biochemically validated by exhaled carbon monoxide. Data was analysed blinded according to the intention-to-treat principle and participants with missing data on their smoking status at follow-up were counted as smokers. Secondary outcomes included: one-year prolonged abstinence, short-term incremental cost-effectiveness, medication adherence, and baseline predictors of successful smoking cessation. Discussion: This trial is the first to provide scientific evidence on the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and potential mechanisms of action of intensive practice nurse counselling combined with varenicline under real-life conditions. This paper explains the methodology of the trial and discusses the pragmatic and/or explanatory design aspects

Closed-Form Bayesian Inferences for the Logit Model via Polynomial Expansions

Articles in Marketing and choice literatures have demonstrated the need for incorporating person-level heterogeneity into behavioral models (e.g., logit models for multiple binary outcomes as studied here). However, the logit likelihood extended with a population distribution of heterogeneity doesn't yield closed-form inferences, and therefore numerical integration techniques are relied upon (e.g., MCMC methods). We present here an alternative, closed-form Bayesian inferences for the logit model, which we obtain by approximating the logit likelihood via a polynomial expansion, and then positing a distribution of heterogeneity from a flexible family that is now conjugate and integrable. For problems where the response coefficients are independent, choosing the Gamma distribution leads to rapidly convergent closed-form expansions; if there are correlations among the coefficients one can still obtain rapidly convergent closed-form expansions by positing a distribution of heterogeneity from a Multivariate Gamma distribution. The solution then comes from the moment generating function of the Multivariate Gamma distribution or in general from the multivariate heterogeneity distribution assumed. Closed-form Bayesian inferences, derivatives (useful for elasticity calculations), population distribution parameter estimates (useful for summarization) and starting values (useful for complicated algorithms) are hence directly available. Two simulation studies demonstrate the efficacy of our approach.Comment: 30 pages, 2 figures, corrected some typos. Appears in Quantitative Marketing and Economics vol 4 (2006), no. 2, 173--20

Optimised Traffic Flow at a Single Intersection: Traffic Responsive signalisation

We propose a stochastic model for the intersection of two urban streets. The vehicular traffic at the intersection is controlled by a set of traffic lights which can be operated subject to fix-time as well as traffic adaptive schemes. Vehicular dynamics is simulated within the framework of the probabilistic cellular automata and the delay experienced by the traffic at each individual street is evaluated for specified time intervals. Minimising the total delay of both streets gives rise to the optimum signalisation of traffic lights. We propose some traffic responsive signalisation algorithms which are based on the concept of cut-off queue length and cut-off density.Comment: 10 pages, 11 eps figs, to appear in J. Phys.

Public attitudes towards healthcare policies promoting tobacco cessation in Germany: results from the representative German study on tobacco use (DEBRA study)

Objective The aim of this study was to assess public acceptance of four possible healthcare policies supporting tobacco dependence treatment in line with the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, Article 14 recommendations in Germany. Design Cross-sectional household survey. Setting Data were drawn from the German population and collected through computer-assisted, face-to-face interviews. Participants Representative random sample of 2087 people (>14 years) from the German population. Outcome measures Public acceptance was measured regarding (1) treatment cost reimbursement, (2) standard training for health professionals on offering cessation treatment, and making cessation treatment a standard part of care for smokers with (3) physical or (4) mental disorders. Association characteristics with smoking status and socio-economic status (SES) were assessed. Results Support for all policies was high (50%–68%), even among smokers (48%–66%). Ex-smokers and neversmokers were more likely to support standard training on cessation for health professionals than current smokers (OR 1.43, 95%CI 1.07 to 1.92; OR 1.43; 95%CI 1.14 to 1.79, respectively). Ex-smokers were also more likely than current smokers to support cessation treatment for smokers with mental disorders (OR 1.39, 95%CI 1.11 to 1.73). Men were less likely than women to support cessation treatment for smokers with physical diseases (OR 0.74, 95%CI 0.60 to 0.91) and free provision of treatment (OR 0.80, 95%CI 0.66 to 0.97). Offering cessation treatment to smokers with physical disorders was generally more accepted than to those with mental health issues. Conclusions The majority of the German population supports healthcare policies to improve the availability and affordability of tobacco dependence treatment. Nonsmokers were more supportive than current smokers of two of the four policies, but odds of support were only about 40% higher. SES characteristics were not consistently associated with public acceptance