Pension system solvency – from linguistics to economics

http://kotlikoff.net/articlesFirst author draf

Is Uncle Sam inducing the elderly to retire?

Many, if not most, Baby Boomers appear at risk of suffering a major decline in their living standard in retirement. With federal and state government finances far too encumbered to significantly raise Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid benefits, Boomers must look to their own devices to rescue their retirements, namely working harder and longer. However, the incentive of Boomers to earn more is significantly limited by a plethora of explicit federal and state taxes and implicit taxes arising from the loss of federal and state benefits as one earns more. Of particular concern is Medicaid and Social Security’s complex Earnings Test and clawback of disability benefits. This study measures the work disincentives confronting those age 50 to 79 from the entire array of explicit and implicit fiscal work disincentives. Specifically, the paper runs older respondents in the Federal Reserve’s 2013 Survey of Consumer Finances through The Fiscal Analyzer -- a software tool designed, in part, to calculate remaining lifetime marginal net tax rates. We find that working longer, say an extra five years, can raise older workers’ sustainable living standards. But the impact is far smaller than suggested in the literature in large part because of high net taxation of labor earnings. We also find that many Baby Boomers now face or will face high and, in very many cases, extremely high work disincentives arising from the hodgepodge design of our fiscal system. A third finding is that the marginal net tax rate associated with a significant increase in earnings, say $20,000 per year, arising from taking a full-time or part-time job (which could a second job), can, for many elderly, be dramatically higher than that associated with earning a relatively small, say$1,000 per year, extra amount of money. This is due to the various income thresholds in our fiscal system. We also examine the elimination of all transfer program asset and income testing. This dramatically lowers marginal net tax rates facing the poor. Another key finding is the enormous dispersion in effective marginal remaining lifetime net tax rates facing seeming identical households, i.e., households with the same age and resource level. Finally, we find that traditional, current-year (i.e., static) marginal tax calculations relating this year’s extra taxes to this year’s extra income are woefully off target when it comes to properly measuring the elderly’s disincentives to work. Our findings suggest that Uncle Sam is, indeed, inducing the elderly to retire.http://kotlikoff.net/columnsPublished versio

Like Father, Like Son: Inheriting and Bequeathing

Empirical evidence suggests that parents who have themselves inherited from their own parents are more likely to leave an estate to their children even after controlling for income, wealth and education. This implies an indirect reciprocal behavior between three generations by transmitting the attitude towards bequeathing from one generation to the next. We incorporate such an intergenerational chain into an overlapping generations model and show that the economy might be characterized by multiple steady states involving poverty traps. Individuals will not leave bequests unless per capita income levels exceed a threshold level. In such a situation, an unfunded social security security programme may help to overcome poverty by providing additional old age income out of which to bequeath.Empirische Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass Eltern, die etwas geerbt haben, unabhängig von etwaigen Einkommens- und Vermögenseffekten, eher geneigt sind selbst auch zu vererben. Dies impliziert ein indirekt reziprokes Verhalten zwischen drei Generationen, bei dem die Einstellung gegenüber dem Vererbungsvorgang von einer Generation zur nächsten weitergegeben wird. Wir integrieren eine solche intergenerationale Verknüpfung in ein überlappendes Generationenmodell und zeigen, dass die resultierende Ökonomie durch multiple Gleichgewichte, einschließlich Armutsfallen, charakterisiert werden kann. Individuen vererben nur dann an ihre Nachkommen, wenn das eigene Pro-Kopf-Einkommen hinreichend hoch ist und einen gewissen Schwellenwert überschreitet. In einer solchen Situation kann ein umlagefinanziertes Rentensystem dazu beitragen der Armut zu entkommen, indem es den Individuen zusätzliches Alterseinkommen zur Verfügung stellt, aus dem sie vererben können

Sustainable Social Security: Four Options

This paper presents four policy options to make Social Security sustainable under the coming demographic shift: 1) increase payroll taxes by 6 percentage points, 2) reduce the replacement rates of the benefit formula by one-third, 3) raise the normal retirement age from sixty-six to seventy-three, or 4) means-test the benefits and reduce them one-to-one with income. While all four policies achieve the same goal, their economic outcomes differ significantly. Options 2 and 3 encourage own savings, and capital stock is more than 10 percent higher than in the other two options. The payroll tax increase in option 1 discourages work effort, but means-testing the benefits as outlined in option 4 yields the worst labor disincentives, especially among the elderly

Living Arrangements of the Elderly in China: Evidence from CHARLS

Recent increases in Chinese elderly living alone or only with a spouse has raised concerns about elderly support, especially when public support is inadequate. However, using rich information from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, we find that the increasing trend in living alone is accompanied with a rise in living close to each other. This type of living arrangement solves the conflicts between privacy/independence and family support. This is confirmed in further investigation: children living close by visit their parents more frequently. We also find that children who live far away provide a larger amount of net transfers to their parents, a result consistent with responsibility sharing among siblings. Having more children is associated with living with a child or having a child nearby, while investing more in a child's schooling is associated with greater net transfers to parents