The Influence of Investor Sentiment on the Formation of Golden-cross and Dead-cross

Abstract The so-ealled "golden-cross" and "dead-cross" are said to be useful signals to forecast market trends. In this paper, we focus on the Japanese stock market where gold-crosses and dead-crosses are empirically considered as useful investment signals. First, we examined the usefulness of these signals by using historical Japanese stock price data. The results confirmed that these crosses were useful as confirmatory signals for forecasting market trends. The results also showed that the minimum length of period (days) of useful moving averages is shorter in the case of golden-cross than in that of dead-cross. Second, we tried to identify the underlying reasons for the usefulness of the crosses. Because a model, which assumed all investors were rational financial experts, failed to explain the usefulness of the crosses, we were able to assume that the crosses reflected investors' irrationality or behavioral bias: conservativeness and representativeness about trends (Tversky and Kahneman 1974). We then developed a model that incorporated this bias. Based on simulations using this model, we identified the mechanism with which those crosses closely relate to investors' irrationality or behavioral bias. The analysis also revealed investors' tendency that they were convinced by a bull trend more easily and quickly than by a bear trend. This finding is in line with what is generally observed as investors' bull-bias in the Japanese stock market

Elevated levels of plasma lactate dehydrogenase is an unfavorable prognostic factor in patients with epidermal growth factor receptor mutation-positive non-small cell lung cancer, receiving treatment with gefitinib or erlotinib.

Treatment with epidermal growth factor receptor-tyrosine kinase inhibitors (EGFR-TKIs) has been shown to prolong survival in patients with EGFR mutation-positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The present study performed a retrospective analysis to investigate the association between the plasma lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels and survival in patients with EGFR mutation-positive NSCLC receiving treatment with EGFR-TKIs. The medical charts of patients with EGFR mutation-positive NSCLC who were receiving treatment with EGFR-TKIs at Toyama University Hospital between 2007 and 2014 were assessed. The data from 65 patients were included in the analysis. Patients with higher plasma LDH levels exhibited shorter progression-free survival (6.2 vs. 13.2 months; P<0.01) and overall survival (10.5 vs. 36.1 months; P<0.01) periods compared with patients with lower plasma LDH levels. A Cox proportional hazards model identified that the plasma LDH level was associated with the progression-free survival (P=0.05) and overall survival (P<0.01). An association was demonstrated between the pretreatment plasma LDH level and the survival in patients with EGFR mutation-positive NSCLC receiving treatment with EGFR-TKIs. Close observation is required in EGFR mutation-positive NSCLC patients exhibiting high plasma LDH levels following the initiation of treatment with EGFR-TKIs.出版社サイトへのリンク：https://doi.org/10.3892/mco.2016.77

Plasma neuron-specific enolase level as a prognostic marker in patients with non-small cell lung cancer receiving gefitinib.

Determination of the presence of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) gene mutation is useful for predicting the efficacy of gefitinib. However, the survival rate following the initiation of treatment with gefitinib varies among individuals. A retrospective study was conducted to investigate the associations of the pretreatment serum pro-gastrin-releasing peptide (pro-GRP) and plasma neuron-specific enolase (NSE) levels to the patient survival rate following initiation of treatment with gefitinib in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients receiving gefitinib treatment. Patients with NSCLC harboring EGFR gene mutations who received gefitinib therapy between 2004 and 2012 were included in the study. Data from a total of 41 patients were analyzed. The serum pro-GRP level was measured in 31 patients and the plasma NSE in 22 patients. The progression-free survival (PFS) (P=0.013) and overall survival (OS) (P=0.014, log-rank test) rates decreased as the plasma NSE level increased. Statistical analysis using a Cox proportional hazards regression model adjusted for age, gender, performance status (PS) and disease stage showed that higher NSE levels were associated with shorter PFS (P=0.021) and OS (P=0.0024). By contrast, no association was detected between the serum level of pro-GRP and survival rate. The results suggest that pretreatment NSE measurement could be clinically useful in patients with NSCLC scheduled to receive gefitinib treatment.出版社サイトへのリンク: https://doi.org/10.3892/mco.2015.56

Usefulness of the Palliative Prognostic Index in patients with lung cancer.

The usefulness of the Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI) has been successfully validated in a variety of clinical settings. However, while lung cancer is the leading cause of death worldwide, patients with lung cancer accounted for only 6.9-25.8 % of the study populations in these previous studies. We conducted a retrospective study to evaluate the usefulness of the PPI for survival prediction in patients with lung cancer. Patients with lung cancer who were admitted to our hospital between 2009 and 2013 to receive palliative care were enrolled. The association between the Palliative Prognostic Index, determined based on the data recorded in the clinical charts at the last admission to our hospital, and survival was evaluated. The patient group with a PPI of >6 showed a significantly shorter survival time than the patient group with a PPI of ≤ 6 (P < 0.0001, log-rank test). The sensitivity and specificity of the PPI determined using the cutoff value of 6 for predicting less than 3 weeks of survival were 61.3 and 86.8 %, respectively. However, the sensitivity decreased to 50.0 % when the assessment was carried out in only patients with small cell lung carcinoma. Our findings suggest the existence of a close association between the PPI and survival in patients with lung cancer receiving palliative care. However, the sensitivity of the index for predicting less than 3 weeks of survival was relatively low in patients with small cell lung carcinoma