A quantitative release assessment for the noncommercial movement of companion animals : risk of rabies reintroduction to the United Kingdom

In 2004, the European Union (EU) implemented a pet movement policy (referred to here as the EUPMP) under EU regulation 998/2003. The United Kingdom (UK) was granted a temporary derogation from the policy until December 2011 and instead has in place its own Pet Movement Policy (Pet Travel Scheme (PETS)). A quantitative risk assessment (QRA) was developed to estimate the risk of rabies introduction to the UK under both schemes to quantify any change in the risk of rabies introduction should the UK harmonize with the EU policy. Assuming 100 % compliance with the regulations, moving to the EUPMP was predicted to increase the annual risk of rabies introduction to the UK by approximately 60-fold, from 7.79 × 10(-5) (5.90 × 10(-5) , 1.06 × 10(-4) ) under the current scheme to 4.79 × 10(-3) (4.05 × 10(-3) , 5.65 × 10(-3) ) under the EUPMP. This corresponds to a decrease from 13,272 (9,408, 16,940) to 211 (177, 247) years between rabies introductions. The risks associated with both the schemes were predicted to increase when less than 100 % compliance was assumed, with the current scheme of PETS and quarantine being shown to be particularly sensitive to noncompliance. The results of this risk assessment, along with other evidence, formed a scientific evidence base to inform policy decision with respect to companion animal movement

A risk analysis and modelling approach for the management of E. coli O157 and Salmonella

EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Detecting new and emerging diseases on livestock farms using an early detection system.

SUMMARYThe monitoring and surveillance of animal diseases is becoming increasingly important to policy-makers in Great Britain particularly given recent incursions of avian influenza and the emergence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy. To meet this surveillance objective, data from British livestock is collected and analysed retrospectively on an ongoing basis. However, these data can also be analysed prospectively within an early detection system which raises alerts to significant increases in disease reporting soon after they occur in the field. The feasibility of such an approach has been examined previously for Salmonella. This paper applied the approach to a further subset of surveillance data to alert those monitoring disease to increases in potentially new and emerging diseases. Thus far, the analysis, conducted on a quarterly basis, has proved a useful additional tool in enhanced surveillance by raising alerts to significant increases in several syndromes in both sheep and cattle

Risk assessments to inform policy decisions regarding importation of pets from North America

A quantitative risk assessment was developed to assist in the policy decision to amend the long-standing quarantine laws for dogs and cats from North America