The Economic Reality of the Beauty Myth

We investigate income, marital status, and hourly pay differentials by body mass (kg/m2) in a sample of 23 to 31 year olds drawn from the 1988 NLSY. Obese women have lower family incomes than women whose weight-for-height is in the 'recommended' range. Results for men are weaker and mixed. We find similar results when we compare same-sex siblings in order to control for family background (e.g., social class) differences. Differences in economic status by body mass for women increase markedly when we use an earlier weight measure or restrict the sample to persons who were single and childless when the early weight was reported. There is some evidence of labor market discrimination against obese women. However, differences in marriage probabilities and in spouse's earnings account for 50 to 95 percent of their lower economic status. There is no evidence that obese African American women suffer an economic penalty relative to other African American women.

Cohort Crowding and Youth Labor Markets: A Cross-National Analysis

We assess the evidence on the contribution of changes in the population age structure to the changing fortunes of youths in labor markets in advanced economies over the 1970s, 1980s and early 1990s, and use this evidence to project the likely effects of future cohort sizes on youth labor markets. We estimate a series of regression models to isolate the effects of exogenous changes in potential youth labor supply on youth employment and unemployment rates using a panel data set on 15 countries over more than 20 years. Our preferred estimates show large youth cohorts lead to increases in the unemployment rate of youths, with elasticities as high as .5 or .6. But the estimates generally indicate little effect of relative cohort size on employment rates of youths. We also find some evidence, though statistically weak, that labor market institutions that decrease flexibility lead to sharper responses of youth unemployment and employment rates to fluctuations in youth cohort size. Finally, due to recent declines in fertility, some European countries will see reductions in the size of youth cohorts over the next 16 years (especially Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain). Projections suggest declining youth shares should improve youth labor markets in these countries, although the effects are not large compared with longer-term changes in youth unemployment rates. Other countries cannot expect demographic changes to improve youth labor markets since youth population shares are projected to decline moderately or to increase.

The Socioeconomic Consequences of Teen Childbearing Reconsidered

Teen childbearing is commonly viewed as an irrational behavior that leads to long-term socioeconomic disadvantage for mothers and their children. Cross-sectional studies that estimate relationships between maternal age at first birth and socioeconomic indicators measured later in life form the empirical basis for this view. However1 these studies have failed to account adequately for differences in family background among women who time their births at different ages. We present new estimates of the consequences of teen childbearing that take into account observed and unobserved family background heterogeneity, comparing sisters who have timed their first births at different ages. Sister comparisons suggest that previous estimates are biased by failure to control adequately for family background heterogeneity, and, as a result, have overstated the consequences of early fertility.

Welfare Reform and Non-Marital Fertility in the 1990s: Evidence from Birth Records

The 1996 Personal Responsibility Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act dramatically altered the economic incentive to bear children out-of-wedlock for economically disadvantaged women or couples most likely to avail themselves of welfare programs. We use data from vital statistics and a difference-in-differences research design to investigate whether state and federal welfare reform in the 1990s reduced rates of non-marital childbearing among women aged 19 to 39 at highest risk of welfare use, relative to women at lower risk. We find little consistent evidence for an effect of welfare reform on non-marital childbearing. This finding is similar to the literature that found little or mixed evidence for an effect of AFDC benefits. If anything, federal welfare reform has been associated with a small positive effect of two to three percent for white and black women ages 19 to 39.

Family Cap Provisions and Changes in Births and Abortions

As part of welfare reform efforts in the 1990s, twenty-three states implemented family caps, provisions that deny or reduce cash assistance to welfare recipients who have additional births. We use birth and abortion records from 24 states to estimate effects of family caps on birth and abortion rates. We use age, marital status and completed schooling to identify women at high risk for use of public assistance, and parity (number of previous live births) to identify those most directly affected by the family cap. In family cap states, birth rates fell more and abortion rates rose more among high-risk women with at least one previous live birth compared to similar childless women, consistent with an effect of the family cap. However, this parity-specific pattern of births and abortions also occurred in states that implemented welfare reform with no family cap. Thus, the effects of welfare reform may have differed between mothers and childless women, but there is little evidence of an independent effect of the family cap.

Marriage, Motherhood, and Wages

We explore several problems in drawing causal inferences from cross-sectional relationships between marriage, motherhood, and wages. We find that heterogeneity leads to biased estimates of the "direct" effects of marriage and motherhood on wages (i.e., effects net of experience and tenure); first-difference estimates reveal no direct effect of marriage or motherhood on women's wages. We also find statistical evidence that experience and tenure nay be endogenous variables in wage equations; IV estimates suggest that both OLS cross-sectional and first-difference estimates understate the direct (negative) effect of children on wages.

Sources of Bias in Women's Wage Equations: Results Using Sibling Data

We use data on sisters to jointly address heterogeneity bias and endogeneity bias in estimates of wage equations for women. This analysis yields evidence of biases in OLS estimates of wage equations for white and black women, some of which are detected only when these two sources of bias are addressed simultaneously. For both white and black women there is evidence of upward bias in the estimated returns to schooling. Bias-corrected estimates of the effect of marriage on wages, for white women, suggest a positive marriage premium. We also use the sibling data to identify our models, and test a number of other commonly used identifying assumptions as overidentifying restrictions.

The Child and Adult Care Food Program: Who is Served and What are Their Nutritional Outcomes?

This paper addresses three basic questions about an under-studied food subsidy program, the Child and Adult Care Food Program (CACFP): (1) Does CACFP reach targeted low-income children? (2) How do eligible families and child care providers who participate differ from those who do not participate? (3) What is the association between attending CACFP-participating child care and children's food intake, weight, and food security? We use the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Birth Cohort to examine these questions for a representative sample of young children and their providers. We find that program eligibility rules leave many poor children outside the CACFP program. Yet, among poor preschoolers in center-based care, participation in the program is correlated with positive outcomes such as increased consumption of milk and vegetables, and healthier weight (BMI). We discuss the implications of our findings, especially in relation to other food and child care subsidy programs.

Refining Estimates of Marital Status Differences in Mortality at Older Ages

The main objective of this analysis is to demonstrate that some of the limitations that have characterized recent studies of the relationship between marital status and health outcomes may result in biased estimates of marital status differences in mortality among the elderly. A secondary goal is to evaluate the strength of evidence in support of the excess risks of mortality associated with widowhood, once we are able to eliminate or mitigate many of the limitations experienced by other studies. Our results, based on the 1984-1990 Longitudinal Study of Aging, demonstrate that the estimated marital status effects in logit and hazard models of survival are very sensitive to whether and how marital status information is updated after the baseline interview. Refined measures of marital status that capture prospectively transitions from the married to the widowhood state result in substantially increased estimates of the relative risk of dying in the early durations of widowhood (bereavement).