Estimating the number of colorectal cancer patients treated with anti-tumour therapy in 2015: the analysis of the Czech National Cancer Registry

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Colorectal cancer (CRC) represents a serious health care problem in the Czech Republic, introducing a need for a prospective modelling of the incidence and prevalence rates. The prevalence of patients requiring anti-tumour therapy is also of great importance, as it is directly associated with planning of health care resources.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This work proposes a population-based model for the estimation of stage-specific prevalence of CRC patients who will require active anti-tumour therapy in a given year. Its applicability is documented on records of the Czech National Cancer Registry (CNCR), which is used to estimate the number of patients potentially treated with anti-tumour therapy in the Czech Republic in 2015.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Several scenarios are adopted to cover the plausible development of the incidence and survival rates, and the probability of an anti-tumour therapy initiation. Based on the scenarios, the model predicts an increase in CRC prevalence from 13% to 30% in comparison with the situation in 2008. Moreover, the model predicts that 10,074 to 11,440 CRC patients will be indicated for anti-tumour therapy in the Czech Republic in 2015. Considering all patients with terminal cancer recurrence and all patients primarily diagnosed in stage IV, it is predicted that 3,485 to 4,469 CRC patients will be treated for the metastatic disease in 2015, which accounts for more than one third (34-40%) of all CRC patients treated this year.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A new model for the estimation of the number of CRC patients requiring active anti-tumour therapy is proposed in this paper. The model respects the clinical stage as the primary stratification factor and utilizes solely the population-based cancer registry data. Thus, no specific hospital data records are needed in the proposed approach. Regarding the short-term prediction of the CRC burden in the Czech Republic, the model confirms a continuous increase in the burden that must be accounted for in the future planning of health care in the Czech Republic.</p

Surprisingly small increase of the sedimentation rate in the floodplain of Morava River in the Strážnice area, Czech Republic, in the last 1300 years

Sediment profiles from the floodplain of Morava River in the Czech Republic have been collected from exposed river banks (4–6m long sections) and cores (2–4m deep) and investigated using a set of geochemical proxies validated by granulometry and conventional geochemical analysis, outlined in our previous paper. The work was conducted to evaluate the increase in sedimentation rate during Medieval and modern time periods. Correlation of sediments along the current channel belt allows identification of two most important synchronous changes in the channel structure over the past 1300years: in the 13th century and at the end of the 16th century. These changes could be related to central European climatic extremes rather than to land cover/land use practises. Analysis of the pollen record in peaty deposits at the floodplain edge allows excluded dramatic deforestation in Medieval times. Maps of the area from the last five centuries revealed direct and indirect signs of past avulsions and clearly show how the original multichannel system was transformed into a single meandering channel in the early 20th century. The extrapolated aggradation rate (net vertical accretion of floodplain fines except for levee sediments) increased from 0.2–0.3cm/year in 700AD to 0.3–0.4cm/year in 2000AD depending on the grain size of the sediment. This is the smallest yet reported enhancement of siliclastic deposition, although Morava River watershed has been intensively used for agriculture and its land cover has changed in a manner similar to west and central European rivers