An interpretable wildfire spreading model for real-time predictions

Forest fires pose a natural threat with devastating social, environmental, and economic implications. The rapid and highly uncertain rate of spread of wildfires necessitates a trustworthy digital tool capable of providing real-time estimates of fire evolution and human interventions, while receiving continuous input from remote sensing. The current work aims at developing an interpretable, physics-based model that will serve as the core of such a tool. This model is constructed using easily understandable equations, incorporating a limited set of parameters that capture essential quantities and heat transport mechanisms. The simplicity of the model allows for effective utilization of data from sensory input, enabling optimal estimation of these parameters. In particular, simplified versions of combustion kinetics and mass/energy balances lead to a computationally inexpensive system of differential equations that provide the spatio-temporal evolution of temperature and flammables over a two-dimensional region. The model is validated by comparing its predictions and the effect of parameters such as flammable bulk density, moisture content, and wind speed, with benchmark results. Additionally, the model successfully captures the evolution of the firefront shape and its rate of spread in multiple directions

The Prognostic Value of the Detection of Microbial Translocation in the Blood of Colorectal Cancer Patients

Dysbiosis has been associated with various diseases and is of major health importance. Dysbiosis leads to microbial translocation, which is the passage of microorganisms, their fragments, or their metabolites from the intestinal lumen into the blood circulation and other sites. The aim of the study was to determine whether microbial translocation occurs in stage II/III-IV colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. The aim was also to evaluate the usefulness of blood PCR for diagnosis of such translocation and correlate the presence of toll-like receptor/vitamin D receptor (TLR/VDR) gene polymorphisms with microbial DNA fragments detected in the blood of CRC patients. Three hundred and ninety-seven CRC patients enrolled in the study. Peripheral blood DNA was analyzed using PCR for the amplification of genomic DNA encoding 16S rRNA, the β-galactosidase gene of Escherichia coli, glutamine synthase gene of Bacteroides fragilis, and 5.8S rRNA of Candida albicans. Significantly higher rates of all microbial fragments, but E. coli, detected were observed in the CRC patients (p < 0.001); such detection of all four microbial fragments was also significantly associated with the metastatic disease (p < 0.001), leading to shorter survival rates (p < 0.001). Tumor location in the right colon also significantly correlated with shorter survival (p = 0.016). Individuals with homozygous mutant alleles of TLR/VDR polymorphisms had significantly higher detection rates of microbial DNA fragments. The detection of microbial DNA fragments in CRC patients highlighted the role of these microbes in cancer development, progression, and patients’ survival

Evaluation of the Role of Circulating Tumor Cells and Microsatellite Instability Status in Predicting Outcome of Advanced CRC Patients

Colorectal cancer (CRC) remains one of the leading causes of cancer-related death due to its high metastatic potential. This study aimed to investigate the detection and heterogeneity of circulating tumor cells (CTCs) and the microsatellite instability (MSI) status in advanced CRC patients prior to any systemic front-line treatment. Peripheral whole blood was obtained from 198 patients. CTCs were detected using double immunofluorescence and a real time-polymerase chain reaction assay; whereas MSI status was evaluated using fragment analysis. Median age of the patients was 66 years, 63.1% were males, 65.2% had a colon/sigmoid tumor location and 90.4% had a good performance status (PS). MSI-High status was detected in 4.9% of the patients; 33.3%, 56.1% and 8.6% patients had at least one detectable CEACAM5+/EpCAM+, CEACAM5+/EpCAM− and CEACAM5−/EpCAM+ CTC, respectively, and 9.1% of the patients had CEACAM5mRNA-positive CTCs. Following multivariate analysis, age, PS and MSI were confirmed as independent prognostic factors for decreased time to progression, whereas age, PS and CTC presence were confirmed as independent prognostic factors for decreased overall survival. In conclusion, our data support the use of CEACAM5 as a dynamic adverse prognostic CTC biomarker in patients with metastatic CRC and MSI-High is considered an unfavorable prognostic factor in metastatic CRC patient tumors

The Role of Vitamin D Receptor Gene Polymorphisms in Colorectal Cancer Risk

Vitamin D deficiency has been associated with increased colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence risk and mortality. Vitamin D mediates its action through the binding of the vitamin D receptor (VDR), and polymorphisms of the VDR might explain these inverse associations. The aim of the study was the investigation of the relevance of rs731236; Thermus aquaticus I (TaqI), rs7975232; Acetobacter pasteurianus sub. pasteurianus I (ApaI), rs2228570; Flavobacterium okeanokoites I (FokI) and rs1544410, Bacillus stearothermophilus I (BsmI) polymorphisms of the VDR gene to colorectal carcinogenesis (CRC) and progression. Peripheral blood was obtained from 397 patients with early operable stage II/III (n = 202) and stage IV (n = 195) CRC. Moreover, samples from 100 healthy donors and 40 patients with adenomatous polyps were also included as control groups. Genotyping in the samples from patients and controls was performed using polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphisms (PCR-RFLP). A significant association was revealed between all four polymorphisms and cancer. Individuals with homozygous mutant (tt, aa, ff or bb) genotypes were more susceptible to the disease (p < 0.001). All of the mutant genotypes detected were also significantly associated with stage IV (p < 0.001), leading to significantly decreased survival (p < 0.001). Moreover, all four polymorphisms were significantly associated with KRAS (Kirsten ras oncogene) mutations and Toll-like receptor (TLR2, TLR4 and TLR9) genetic variants. In multivariate analysis, tt, aa and ff genotypes emerged as independent factors associated with decreased overall survival (OS) (p = 0.001, p < 0.001 and p = 0.001, respectively). The detection of higher frequencies of the VDR polymorphisms in CRC patients highlights the role of these polymorphisms in cancer development and progression