Direct and Indirect Crisis Effects on International Trade or: Is There a Chance to Employ an Income Stimulus to Stimulate Exports?

While research concerning the fundamental connection between financial crises and international trade, at first appearance, provides conclusive results, it displays two specific methodological biases by ignoring income effects: first, crisis influence is underestimated; second, crisis dynamics do not take account of income dynamics, thereby giving the analysis a touch of avoidable incompleteness. This paper offers a solution to both problems without leaving the standard framework of the gravity model of trade. The solution is brought by a basic crisis adjustment technique of income. As an empirical test, the developed approach is employed to estimate the crisis response of German trade during the recent global crisis. Results correspond to consequences deducted from an elementary impact model for a quasi-non-crisis country: exports are mainly affected by non-income effects and foreign income effects; imports are influenced by domestic income and global non-income effects, and reveal expected dynamics. The outcome has two implications of interest for policy decisions: (i) stimulus spillovers can come back, and (ii) the indirect effect sensitivity of imports delivers a strong case for an international coordination of fiscal measures.gravity model of trade; German trade; crisis impact; income effects; stimulus effects

Diagnosis of gearboxes and main gears

Technical diagnosis is the process which determines the technical condition of the object to be diagnosed with certain accuracy. The result of the diagnosis is the conclusion about the technical condition of the vehicle including (if necessary) the place, the type and the cause of the fault. Diagnosis is used for routine maintenance, as well as for detecting defects in the maintenance

Kim Ir Sen - wieczny wódz

The above article aims to briefly introduce the character of Kim Il Sung and the development of his character based on the most important events up to the 1970s. The work also approximates the issue of the history of Korea, which had a significant impact on the formation of North Korea and the takeover of power by Kim Il Sung.Powyższy artykuł ma na celu pokrótce przybliżenie postaci Kim Ir Sena i rozwoju jego postaci na podstawie najważniejszych wydarzeń do lat 70. XX w. W pracy przybliżono również kwestie dotyczące historii Korei, które miały znaczący wpływ na utworzenie się Korei Północnej oraz przejęcie władzy przez Kim Ir Sena

Direct and Indirect Crisis Effects on International Trade or: Is There a Chance to Employ an Income Stimulus to Stimulate Exports?

While research concerning the fundamental connection between financial crises and international trade, at first appearance, provides conclusive results, it displays two specific methodological biases by ignoring income effects: first, crisis influence is underestimated; second, crisis dynamics do not take account of income dynamics, thereby giving the analysis a touch of avoidable incompleteness. This paper offers a solution to both problems without leaving the standard framework of the gravity model of trade. The solution is brought by a basic crisis adjustment technique of income. As an empirical test, the developed approach is employed to estimate the crisis response of German trade during the recent global crisis. Results correspond to consequences deducted from an elementary impact model for a quasi-non-crisis country: exports are mainly affected by non-income effects and foreign income effects; imports are influenced by domestic income and global non-income effects, and reveal expected dynamics. The outcome has two implications of interest for policy decisions: (i) stimulus spillovers can come back, and (ii) the indirect effect sensitivity of imports delivers a strong case for an international coordination of fiscal measures