A general framework for statistical inference on discrete event systems.

We present a framework for statistical analysis of discrete event systems which combines tools such as simulation of marked point processes, likelihood methods, kernel density estimation and stochastic approximation to enable statistical analysis of the discrete event system, even if conventional approaches fail due to the mathematical intractability of the model. The approach is illustrated with an application to modelling and estimating corrosion of steel gates in the Dutch Haringvliet storm surge barrier

Association of Circulating Ketone Bodies With Functional Outcomes After ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

Background: Circulating ketone bodies (KBs) are increased in patients with heart failure (HF), corresponding with increased cardiac KB metabolism and HF severity. However, the role of circulating KBs in ischemia/reperfusion remains unknown. Objectives: This study sought to investigate longitudinal changes of KBs and their associations with functional outcomes in patients presenting with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Methods: KBs were measured in 369 participants from a randomized trial on early metformin therapy after STEMI. Nonfasting plasma concentrations of KBs (β-hydroxybutyrate, acetoacetate, and acetone) were measured by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy at presentation, at 24 hours, and after 4 months. Myocardial infarct size and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) were determined by cardiac magnetic resonance imaging at 4 months. Associations of circulating KBs with infarct size and LVEF were determined using multivariable linear regression analyses. Results: Circulating KBs were high at presentation with STEMI (median total KBs: 520 μmol/L; interquartile range [IQR]: 315-997 μmol/L). At 24 hours after reperfusion, KBs were still high compared with levels at 4-month follow-up (206 μmol/L [IQR: 174-246] vs 166 μmol/L [IQR: 143-201], respectively; P < 0.001). Increased KB concentrations at 24 hours were independently associated with larger myocardial infarct size (total KBs, per 100 μmol/L: β = 1.56; 95% confidence interval: 0.29-2.83; P = 0.016) and lower LVEF (β = −1.78; 95% CI: (−3.17 to −0.39; P = 0.012). Conclusions: Circulating KBs are increased in patients presenting with STEMI. Higher KBs at 24 hours are associated with functional outcomes after STEMI, which suggests a potential role for ketone metabolism in response to myocardial ischemia. (Metabolic Modulation With Metformin to Reduce Heart Failure After Acute Myocardial Infarction: Glycometabolic Intervention as Adjunct to Primary Coronary Intervention in ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction (GIPS-III): a Randomized Controlled Trial; NCT01217307

Cost-effectiveness of blended vs. face-to-face cognitive behavioural therapy for severe anxiety disorders: study protocol of a randomized controlled trial

Background: Anxiety disorders are among the most prevalent psychiatric conditions, and are associated with poor quality of life and substantial economic burden. Cognitive behavioural therapy is an effective treatment to reduce anxiety symptoms, but is also costly and labour intensive. Cost-effectiveness could possibly be improved by delivering cognitive behavioural therapy in a blended format, where face-to-face sessions are partially replaced by online sessions. The aim of this trial is to determine the cost-effectiveness of blended cognitive behavioural therapy for adults with anxiety disorders, i.e. panic disorder, social phobia or generalized anxiety disorder, in specialized mental health care settings compared to face-to-face cognitive behavioural therapy. In this paper, we present the study protocol. It is hypothesized that blended cognitive behavioural therapy for anxiety disorders is clinically as effective as face-to-face cognitive behavioural therapy, but that intervention costs may be reduced. We thus hypothesize that blended cognitive behavioural therapy is more cost-effective than face-to-face cognitive behavioural therapy. Methods/design: In a randomised controlled equivalence trial 156 patients will be included (n = 78 in blended cognitive behavioural therapy, n = 78 in face-to-face cognitive behavioural therapy) based on a power of 0.80, calculated by using a formula to estimate the power of a cost-effectiveness analysis: $n = \frac{2(z_\alpha + z_\beta)^2(sd^2 + (W^2sd^2) - (2Wpsd_csd_q))}{(WE-C)^2}$ Measurements will take place at baseline, midway treatment (7 weeks), immediately after treatment (15 weeks) and 12-month follow-up. At baseline a diagnostic interview will be administered. Primary clinical outcomes are changes in anxiety symptom severity as measured with the Beck Anxiety Inventory. An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio will be calculated to obtain the costs per quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) measured by the EQ-5D (5-level version). Health-economic outcomes will be explored from a societal and health care perspective. Discussion: This trial will be one of the first to provide information on the cost-effectiveness of blended cognitive behavioural therapy for anxiety disorders in routine specialized mental health care settings, both from a societal and a health care perspective

PHP48 COST SENSITIVENESS AND PHYSICIAN TREATMENT CHOICES

Objectives To explore the relationship between nodule count and lung cancer probability in baseline low-dose CT lung cancer screening. Materials and Methods Included were participants from the NELSON trial with at least one baseline nodule (3392 participants [45% of screen-group], 7258 nodules). We determined nodule count per participant. Malignancy was confirmed by histology. Nodules not diagnosed as screen-detected or interval cancer until the end of the fourth screening round were regarded as benign. We compared lung cancer probability per nodule count category. Results 1746 (51.5%) participants had one nodule, 800 (23.6%) had two nodules, 354 (10.4%) had three nodules, 191 (5.6%) had four nodules, and 301 (8.9%) had > 4 nodules. Lung cancer in a baseline nodule was diagnosed in 134 participants (139 cancers; 4.0%). Median nodule count in participants with only benign nodules was 1 (Inter-quartile range [IQR]: 1–2), and 2 (IQR 1–3) in participants with lung cancer (p = NS). At baseline, malignancy was detected mostly in the largest nodule (64/66 cancers). Lung cancer probability was 62/1746 (3.6%) in case a participant had one nodule, 33/800 (4.1%) for two nodules, 17/354 (4.8%) for three nodules, 12/191 (6.3%) for four nodules and 10/301 (3.3%) for > 4 nodules (p = NS). Conclusion In baseline lung cancer CT screening, half of participants with lung nodules have more than one nodule. Lung cancer probability does not significantly change with the number of nodules. Baseline nodule count will not help to differentiate between benign and malignant nodules. Each nodule found in lung cancer screening should be assessed separately independent of the presence of other nodules

Serum free thiols predict cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality in the general population:a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Serum free thiols (R-SH, sulfhydryl groups) reliably reflect systemic oxidative stress. Since serum free thiols are rapidly oxidized by reactive species, systemic oxidative stress is generally associated with reduced serum free thiol levels. Free thiols associate with favorable disease outcomes in many patient cohorts, and the current hypothesis is that oxidative stress might also play an important role in cardiovascular disease. In this study, we aimed to establish the role of serum free thiols in the general population by investigating their relationship with the risk of cardiovascular (CV) events and all-cause mortality. METHODS: Participants (n = 5955) of the Prevention of REnal and Vascular ENd-stage Disease (PREVEND) cohort study from the general population were included. At baseline, serum levels of free thiols were quantified and adjusted to total protein levels. Protein-adjusted serum free thiol levels were studied for their associations with clinical and biochemical parameters, as well as with the risk of CV events and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: The mean protein-adjusted serum free thiol level was 5.05 ± 1.02 μmol/g of protein. Protein-adjusted serum free thiols significantly predicted the risk of CV events, even after adjustment for potential confounding factors (hazard ratio [HR] per doubling 0.68 [95% confidence interval [CI] 0.47-1.00], P = 0.048). Similarly, protein-adjusted serum free thiols were significantly predictive of the risk of all-cause mortality (HR per doubling 0.66 [95% CI 0.44-1.00], P = 0.050). Stratified analyses revealed lower HRs for subjects with a lower body mass index (BMI), without hypertension, and without diabetes. Conversely, HRs were lower in subjects with albuminuria. CONCLUSIONS: In this large population-based cohort study, serum free thiols significantly predicted the risk of CV events and all-cause mortality. Our results highlight the potential significance and clinical applicability of serum free thiols since they are amendable to therapeutic intervention

Nonlinear Mixed-Effects Model of Z-Endoxifen Concentrations in Tamoxifen-Treated Patients from the CEPAM Cohort

Tamoxifen is widely used in patients with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer. The polymorphic enzyme CYP2D6 is primarily responsible for metabolic activation of tamoxifen, resulting in substantial interindividual variability of plasma concentrations of its most important metabolite, Z-endoxifen. The Z-endoxifen concentration thresholds below which tamoxifen treatment is less efficacious have been proposed but not validated, and prospective trials of individualized tamoxifen treatment to achieve Z-endoxifen concentration thresholds are considered infeasible. Therefore, we aim to validate the association between Z-endoxifen concentration and tamoxifen treatment outcomes, and identify a Z-endoxifen concentration threshold of tamoxifen efficacy, using pharmacometric modeling and simulation. As a first step, the CYP2D6 Endoxifen Percentage Activity Model (CEPAM) cohort was created by pooling data from 28 clinical studies (&gt; 7,000 patients) with measured endoxifen plasma concentrations. After cleaning, data from 6,083 patients were used to develop a nonlinear mixed-effect (NLME) model for tamoxifen and Z-endoxifen pharmacokinetics that includes a conversion factor to allow inclusion of studies that measured total endoxifen but not Z-endoxifen. The final parent-metabolite NLME model confirmed the primary role of CYP2D6, and contributions from body weight, CYP2C9 phenotype, and co-medication with CYP2D6 inhibitors, on Z-endoxifen pharmacokinetics. Future work will use the model to simulate Z-endoxifen concentrations in patients receiving single agent tamoxifen treatment within large prospective clinical trials with long-term survival to identify the Z-endoxifen concentration threshold below which tamoxifen is less efficacious. Identification of this concentration threshold would allow personalized tamoxifen treatment to improve outcomes in patients with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer.</p

Early detection of obstructive coronary artery disease in the asymptomatic high-risk population:objectives and study design of the EARLY-SYNERGY trial

Background: Coronary artery disease (CAD) burden for society is expected to steeply increase over the next decade. Improved feasibility and efficiency of preventive strategies is necessary to flatten the curve. Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is the main determinant of CAD-related mortality and morbidity, and predominantly occurs in individuals with more advanced stages of CAD causing subclinical myocardial ischemia (obstructive CAD; OCAD). Unfortunately, OCAD can remain subclinical until its destructive presentation with AMI or sudden death. Current primary preventive strategies are not designed to differentiate between non-OCAD and OCAD and the opportunity is missed to treat individuals with OCAD more aggressively. Methods: EARLY-SYNERGY is a multicenter, randomized-controlled clinical trial in individuals with coronary artery calcium (CAC) presence to study (1.) the yield of cardiac magnetic resonance stress myocardial perfusion imaging (CMR-MPI) for early OCAD diagnosis and (2) whether early OCAD diagnosis improves outcomes. Individuals with CAC score ≥300 objectified in 2 population-based trials (ROBINSCA; ImaLife) are recruited for study participation. Eligible candidates are randomized 1:1 to cardiac magnetic resonance stress myocardial perfusion imaging (CMR-MPI) or no additional functional imaging. In the CMR-MPI arm, feedback on imaging results is provided to primary care provider and participant in case of guideline-based actionable findings. Participants are followed-up for clinical events, healthcare utilization and quality of life. Conclusions: EARLY-SYNERGY is the first randomized-controlled clinical trial designed to test the hypothesis that subclinical OCAD is widely present in the general at-risk population and that early differentiation of OCAD from non-OCAD followed by guideline-recommended treatment improves outcomes