Competitive Balance in Dutch Soccer

Most sports are interesting because the outcome of a game cannot be predicted perfectly in advance. Indeed, sometimes sports organizations try to maximize the uncertainty associated with the outcomes of the games by restricting the behaviour of teams and players so as to maximize public interest. The degree of competitiveness in a league is also known as competitive balance. In this paper we propose a simple model analyze the outcome of soccer matches. The parameters of this model are used to assess whether comeptitive balance in Dutch soccer has decreased or increased over time.professional soccer, competitive balance, ordered probit

A probabilistic analysis of the Dutch lotto

The size of the jackpot of the American powerball lottery that fell in August 2001 has generated a lot of interest in the probability of winning a lottery, both in the United States and elsewhere. Many people dream of becoming rich in a single moment. We calculate the probabilities of winning prizes, and the expected pay-off of the Dutch Lotto. We also address an important issue: are the numbers and color drawn truly random? We analyze draws of the Lotto from 1974 onwards. It is impractical to test whether each possible draw occurs according to its expected frequency. It is possible, though, to test different implications of the hypothesis that the numbers and colors are drawn randomly. We find that there is no evidence against the hypothesis that the numbered balls are drawn randomly, but the hypothesis that the colored ball is drawn randomly is rejected decisively.

A simulation model for football championships

In this paper we discuss a simulation/probability model that identifies the team that is most likely to win a tournament. The model can also be used to answer other questions like ‘which team had a lucky draw?’ or ‘what is the probability that two teams meet at some moment in the tournament?’. Input to the simulation/probability model are scoring intensities, that are estimated as a weighted average of goals scored. The model has been used in practice to write articles for the popular press, and seems to perform well.

Market forces in European soccer

Recent decades have witnessed major changes in the market for European soccer. The most profound were the Bosman ruling, which lifted restrictions in the European labor market for soccer talent, and the introduction of the Champions’ League, a high-profile international competition that generates high revenues for participating clubs. This paper studies the effects of these changes on the closeness of national and international competitions, from both a theoretical and an empirical perspective. We show that competitive balance in national competitions has not been affected. International quality differences did increase, mainly as a result of the Bosman ruling.

Market forces in European soccer

Recent decades have witnessed major changes in the market for European soccer. The most profound were the Bosman ruling, which lifted restrictions in the European labor market for soccer talent, and the introduction of the Champions' League, a high-profile international competition that generates high revenues for participating clubs. This paper studies the effects of these changes on the closeness of national and international competitions, from both a theoretical and an empirical perspective. We show that competitive balance in national competitions has not been affected. International quality differences did increase, mainly as a result of the Bosman ruling.