Application of Bayesian Method to Estimating Relative Risks of Suicide in Japan -Making Shrinkage Estimators of Standard Moratality Rate Using Empirical Bayesian Models and Hierarchical Bayesian Models-

効果的な自殺対策を行うために，地域における自殺実態の把握の重要性が認識されてきている.地域の自殺実態を表す統計指標として，相対リスクである標準化死亡比がしばしば用いられる.しかし，標準化死亡比は，人口が少ない地域において変動が大きい欠点がある.そのため，信頼性ある推定量が求められてきた.ここでは，最尤推定量，経験ベイズ推定量，階層ベイズ推定量の3種類の相対リスクの推定量を扱うこととした.兵庫県でのベイズ推定では，事前分布にガンマ分布を仮定した相対リスクの基本となるPoisson-Gammaモデルを用い，事前分布を仮定するベイズ推定の枠組みが縮約推定量を構成することを説明した.また，マルコフ連鎖モンテカルロ法による階層ベイズ推定量の構成の仕方を検討し，それぞれの推定量の特長についての整理を行った.Japanese suicide rate got drastically higher in 1998 and it is keeping high since then. And prevention of suicide is getting a most important political issue in contemporary Japan. In terms of effictive preventions of suicide, assessing suicide risks in small areas have been regarded as an essential task, and standardized mortality rates(SMR) is generally used to showing pictures of conditions of suicide in small areas. However, SMR has disadvantages of showing excess variability in calculating it for smaller population areas such as rural districts.Therfore, getting reliable estimators of SMR is one of the most important tasks for suicide researchers and policy makers until now. In this study, we focused on maximum likelihood estimators, empirical Bayesian estimators, and hierarchical Bayesian estimators of SMR as indicators of relative suicide risks. First, we applied basic Poisson-Gamma model for areas in Hyogo prefecture in Japan and discussed that the Poisson likelihood model with Gamma prior distribution constructed the shrinkage estimators. Second, we showed how to construct hierarchical Bayesian estimator with Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Finally, we provided a comprehensive discussion of these three estimators\u27 features

動的因子分析による個人内変動・個人間変動のモデル化 : 特性・状態の時系列データを対象にして

関西大

I Institutional Research for Internal Quality Assurance on Educational Program from the Standpoint of Educational Research

On the occasion of the third cycle of the institutional certified evaluation and accreditation, this research examines internal quality assurance for improving educational study with properly selected evaluation objectives and focuses on internal quality assurance in the educational program or curriculum for undergraduate students rather than systematic quality assurance of the entire university. The study concludes with five features suitable for institutional research (IR): 1) strengthening the evaluation function of the educational program; 2) consistently assessing the qualities and abilities as a school corporation; 3) advanced evaluation making full use of expertise in statistical analysis; 4) developing systems to support the students own identity; and 5) collaboration between faculty and teachers across departments. As an IR project, the study also demonstrates in reviewing and improving the curriculum through the decision tree analysis, collaboration with faculty and the education development support center

動的因子分析による個人内変動・個人間変動のモデル化―特性・状態の時系列データを対象にして― [論文要旨及び審査の要旨]

関西大

Cohort Size,Age,and Suicide Rates : A Longitudinal Analysis of Suicide Rates by Prefecture in Japan

近年の日本の高い自殺率の解消は喫緊の課題となっているが，その中で，社会関係資本が果たす役割の重要性が認識され始めている．また，社会関係資本の主要素である一般的信頼の高さが，自殺を抑止する効果があることも実証的に示され始めている. その一方，意識項目による測定にもとづく信頼の分析には，指標の不安定性，データの制約などの問題があることが指摘されている.そこで，本稿では，自殺に対する社会的信頼の効果を明らかにするために，以下の分析戦略を採用した. 1)個人の信頼感の平均を指標とするのではなく，信頼の形成，崩壊に対応するマクロ指標を利用する. 2)既存研究で，信頼感が必要条件として機能することが明らかにされてきているため，その必要条件が満たされていない状況，すなわち，信頼が崩壊するような場面を扱う. 3)分析の参照点となる既存研究がすでに存在し，分析戦略の日本における妥当性が比較検討されうる対象を選定する.この方針に従い，ここでは，コホートサイズの自殺率に及ぼす影響を検討した.コホートサイズを扱うのは，コホートサイズの大きさが，世代内，世代間の信頼の弱体化と関連するという既存研究 (Pampel，1996など)の仮説を前提としているためである.分析対象は， 1993～2010年の都道府県別・年齢階級別の男性の自殺率とした.分析の結果，若年層・中高年層では大きなコホートサイズほど自殺率が増加し，また，高齢者層では大きなコホートサイズほど自殺率が減少しており，世代内の信頼の弱体化と世代間の対立の両者がともに，自殺に対して影響をもつことが明らかになった. In the past 10 years, high suicide rates have been　regarded as one of the most critical　problems in Japan. Recent articles have pointed to social capital as an important factor in preventing suicide. In particular, social trust has been identified as having a major role to play. However, while analyses of social trust have taken a central position in suicide studies, the difficulty of measuring trust emerges. In this study, we analyzed age- and prefecture-specific male suicide rates for about 20 years since 1993 in Japan and adopted three approaches in elucidating the relationships between trust and suicide. First, we used macro indicators related to development and loss of trust instead of using micro indicators. Second, we focused on the conditions resulting in a low level of trust. Third, we performed a comparative study with previous literature to determine the validity of our study. Based on these indicators, we examined the effects of cohort size on suicide rates. Earlier studies suggested that cohort size caused conflicts relating to low trust and low trust affected suicide rates. In this study, the result of a longitudinal analysis showed that large cohort sizes raised the suicide rates among the young and middle-aged while reducing those among the elderly. These results mean that the effect of trust on suicide rates differed by age

Decision Tree for Institutional Research in the Educational Field : As an Example of Searching for Student Characteristics at the Time of Admission Affecting the Learning Outcomes of the First Year Experience

本論文では、インスティテューショナル・リサーチ(IR)における主要なデータマイニング手法である決定木分析の活用について論じた。決定木の利点と留意点を整理し、教学IRにおける決定木分析の有用性について検討した。具体的な文脈として、初年次の学修成果に影響する入学時の学生特徴を探索するという場面を想定して、決定木の活用の全体の流れを示した。分析設計を検討し、模擬データを用いてRでの決定木分析の実行例を提示した。そして、決定木分析が示唆する結果を確認的に分析することで、主要な説明変数を見出すことになり、学習支援等への検討や次なる分析対象の絞り込みにつながることを論じた

Latent Growth Modeling by sem in R

The sem package in R was introduced in　latent growth modeling analysis. The sample date in this analysis were selected from the published official batting average records of professional Japanese baseball players over a period of ten years. The result of latent growth modeling demonstrated that the quadratic form trajectory model fit the data well. The R command lists of this analysis were also presented. Rのsemパッケージを，潜在成長モデルの分析のために紹介した.この分析の例データのために，10年にわたる日本のプロ野球選手の打撃記録を刊行されている公認記録から選んだ.潜在成長モデルの結果は,二次形式の軌跡モデルがよくデータに合うことを明らかにした.この分析のRコマンドリストも提示した

Modeling of Psychological Change : Latent Difference Score Model for Three Wave Longitudinal Data

The purposes of this paper were to develop the latent difference score model for three wave longitudinal data and to apply this method to examine the trajectories of two aspects of “the view of learning” in the freshman. Longitudinal data were collected at April, May, and June in the class of introductory psychology. Using simultaneous latent difference score model for two groups of 143 male and 136 female students, the means of factor scores at three waves were estimated. The means of “the acquisitive attitude for credits” were up at June. The trajectory patterns of “the seeking the self-development” were different. These results were discussed with consideration of the methodological issues on longitudinal research

Educational Program and Learning Environment Design for Active Learning from Higher Education in Singapore

研究ノー

Preliminary Result of Parallel double Divide and Conquer

Abstract This paper shows a concept for parallelization of double Divide and Conquer and its preliminary result. For singular value decomposition, double Divide and Conquer was recently proposed. It first computes singular values by a compact version of Divide and Conquer. The corresponding singular vectors are then computed by twisted factorization. The speed and accuracy of double Divide and Conquer are as well or even better than standard algorithms such as QR and Divide and Conquer. In addition, it is expected that double Divide and Conquer has great parallelism because each step is theoretically parallel and heavy communication is no required. However, any parallel model of double Divide and Conquer has not been studied yet. In this paper, policy of the parallelization is discussed. Then, a parallel implementation with MPI is tested on a distributed memory parallel computer. It successfully shows a high parallelism