National Scenarios of Economic Activity (GDP) - A Downscaling Analysis based on SRES

This report presents national scenarios of economic activity (GDP) for the time period 1990 to 2100 based on three scenarios (A2, B1, and B2) from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES; Nakicenovic et al, 2000). Two scenarios (B1 and B2) follow (with minor adjustments due to scenario improvements) the original SRES quantifications at the level of 4 and 11 world regions respectively. The quantification of the original SRES A2 scenario has been revised in order to reflect recent changing perceptions on the demographic outlook of world population growth. In this revised “high population growth” scenario A2 world population reaches some 12 billion by 2100 (as opposed to some 15 billion in the original SRES A2 scenario) and is characterized by a “delayed fertility transition” that is also mirrored in a delayed (economic) development catch-up. Our downscaling approach emphasizes the scenario dependency of the national development path. I.e., national income convergence within a region varies across the scenarios and is guided by the scenario’s specific assumptions for convergence on the macro-regional level. The approach explicitly distinguishes also between countries at different stages of economic development as opposed to earlier downscaling approaches which have employed the (by now widely recognized) problematic method of regionally uniform growth rates as downscaling algorithm. While the results are similar at the regional level to SRES, there are significant differences compared to earlier results from downscaling at the national level

Emissions of air pollutants implied by global long-term energy scenarios

This report presents a methodology to link national medium-term (up to 2030) with global long-term (beyond 2050) emission scenarios. Such a linkage is relevant for estimating impacts of global long-term climate change scenarios on local and regional air pollution in the next few decades. We present a methodology for the linkage that combines results from two models developed at IIASA: the GAINS air pollution model and the MESSAGE model of long-term energy system dynamics. We calculate for energy scenarios developed by the MESSAGE model future emissions of air pollutants (SO2, NOx, PM, BC/OC, NH3, VOC and CO), taking into account air pollution control legislation that is in place in the various countries. Example results are provided for the middle-of-the-road B2 baseline scenario. Under the B2 scenario global emissions of sulfur, nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide decline continuously between 2000 and 2100, largely due to widespread implementation of air pollution control technologies. On the other hand, in Asian developing countries sulfur emissions will increase significantly up to 2030 due to the strong increase in coal use for power generation. In contrast, a climate stabilization scenario highlights synergies from the co-control of air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions. Finally, the role of shipping emissions is discussed within the global context, and resulting emission projections are compared with other analyses

The IIASA Energy Access Tool (Energy-ENACT)

Researchers from the Energy Program at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), building on work carried out within the framework of the Global Energy Assessment (GEA), have developed an interactive web-based scenario analysis tool that permits assessment of different policies for achieving universal access to modern energy by 2030. This software, known as the IIASA Energy-ENACT tool, is designed to assist national and regional policy makers and analysts in their strategic policy planning processes. The tool extends work undertaken for the GEA and, as such, is built on an extensive set of energy access scenarios to visualise costs and benefits of specific policy choices and their impacts. This document serves as an introduction to the Energy-ENACT tool and as a brief manual for the typical user

The IIASA Energy-Multi Criteria Analysis Tool (ENE-MCA)

Researchers at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), building on work carried out within the framework of the Global Energy Assessment (GEA), have developed an interactive web-based scenario analysis tool that permits the concurrent assessment of synergies and trade-offs between multiple energy objectives at the global scale. This software, known as the IIASA Energy-Multi Criteria Analysis Policy Tool (ENE-MCA), is designed to assist national policy makers in their strategic policy planning processes. The tool extends work undertaken for the GEA and, as such, is built on the extensive set of global energy and environmental scenarios that have been generated as part of the GEA process. This document serves as an introduction to the ENE-MCA tool and as a brief manual for the typical user

Climate policies can help resolve energy security and air pollution challenges

This research assesses three key energy sustainability objectives: energy security improvement, climate change mitigation, and the reduction of air pollution and its human health impacts. We illustrate how the common practice of narrowly focusing on singular issues ignores potentially enormous synergies, highlighting the need for a paradigm shift toward more holistic policy approaches. Our analysis of a large ensemble of alternate energy-climate futures, developed using MESSAGE, an integrated assessment model, shows that climate change policy offers a strategic entry point along the path to energy sustainability in several dimensions. Decarbonization will lead to improved air quality, thereby reducing energy-related health impacts worldwide (22-32 million fewer disability-adjusted life years in 2030). At the same time, low-carbon technologies and energy-efficiency improvements can help to further the energy security goals of individual countries and regions by promoting a more dependable, resilient, and diversified energy portfolio. The cost savings of these climate policy synergies are potentially enormous: $100-600 billion annually by 2030 in reduced pollution control and energy security expenditures (0.1-0.7% of GDP). Novel aspects of this work include an explicit quantification of the health-related co-benefits of present and future air pollution control policies; an analysis of how future constraints on regional trade could influence energy security; a detailed assessment of energy expenditures showing where financing needs to flow in order to achieve the multiple energy sustainability objectives; and a quantification of the relationships between different fulfillment levels for energy security and air pollution goals and the probability of reaching the 2°C climate target

Climate policies can help resolve energy security and air pollution challenges

This research assesses three key energy sustainability objectives: energy security improvement, climate change mitigation, and the reduction of air pollution and its human health impacts. We illustrate how the common practice of narrowly focusing on singular issues ignores potentially enormous synergies, highlighting the need for a paradigm shift toward more holistic policy approaches. Our analysis of a large ensemble of alternate energy-climate futures, developed using MESSAGE, an integrated assessment model, shows that climate change policy offers a strategic entry point along the path to energy sustainability in several dimensions. Decarbonization will lead to improved air quality, thereby reducing energy-related health impacts worldwide (22-32 million fewer disability-adjusted life years in 2030). At the same time, low-carbon technologies and energy-efficiency improvements can help to further the energy security goals of individual countries and regions by promoting a more dependable, resilient, and diversified energy portfolio. The cost savings of these climate policy synergies are potentially enormous: $100-600 billion annually by 2030 in reduced pollution control and energy security expenditures (0.1-0.7% of GDP). Novel aspects of this work include an explicit quantification of the health-related co-benefits of present and future air pollution control policies; an analysis of how future constraints on regional trade could influence energy security; a detailed assessment of energy expenditures showing where financing needs to flow in order to achieve the multiple energy sustainability objectives; and a quantification of the relationships between different fulfillment levels for energy security and air pollution goals and the probability of reaching the 2°C climate target

Estimation of the Global Health Impacts of Air Pollution

Air pollution is increasingly recognized as a significant contributor to global health outcomes. A methodological framework for evaluating the global health related outcomes of outdoor and indoor (household) air pollution is presented and validated for the year 2005. Ambient concentrations of PM2.5 re estimated with a combination of energy and atmospheric models, with detailed representation of urban and rural spatial exposures. Populations dependent on solid fuels are established with household survey data. Health impacts for outdoor and household air pollution are independently calculated using the fractions of disease that can be attributed to ambient air pollution exposure and solid fuel use. Estimated ambient pollution concentrations indicate that more than 80% of the population exceeds the WHO Air Quality Guidelines in 2005. In addition, 3.26 billion people were found to use solid fuel for cooking in three regions of Sub Saharan Africa, South Asia and Pacific Asia in 2005. Outdoor air pollution results in 2.7 million deaths or 23 million DALYs while household air pollution from solid fuel use and related indoor smoke results in 2.1 million deaths or 41.6 million DALYs. The higher morbidity from household air pollution can be attributed to children below the age of five in Sub Saharan Africa and South Asia. The burden of disease from air pollution is found to be significant, thus indicating the importance of policy interventions