Comprehensive Seismic Hazard Analysis of India

Planet earth is restless and one cannot control its inside activities and vibrations those leading to natural hazards. Earthquake is one of such natural hazards that have affected the mankind most. Most of the causalities due to earthquakes happened not because of earthquakes as such, but because of poorly designed structures which could not withstand the earthquake forces. The improper building construction techniques adopted and the high population density are the major causes of the heavy damage due to earthquakes. The damage due to earthquakes can be reduced by following proper construction techniques, taking into consideration of appropriate forces on the structure that can be caused due to future earthquakes. The steps towards seismic hazard evaluation are very essential to estimate an optimal and reliable value of possible earthquake ground motion during a specific time period. These predicted values can be an input to assess the seismic vulnerability of an area based on which new construction and the restoration works of existing structures can be carried out. A large number of devastating earthquakes have occurred in India in the past. The northern region of India, which is along the plate boundary of the Indian plate with the Eurasian plate, is seismically very active. The north eastern movement of Indian plate has caused deformation in the Himalayan region, Tibet and the North Eastern India. Along the Himalayan belt, the Indian and Eurasian plates converge at the rate of about 50 mm/year (Bilham 2004; Jade 2004). The North East Indian (NEI) region is known as one of the most seismically active regions in the world. However the peninsular India, which is far away from the plate boundary, is a stable continental region, which is considered to be of moderate seismic activity. Even though, the activity is considered to be moderate in the Peninsular India, world’s deadliest earthquake occurred in this region (Bhuj earthquake 2001). The rapid drifting of Indian plate towards Himalayas in the north east direction with a high velocity along with its low plate thickness might be the cause of high seismicity of the Indian region. Bureau of Indian Standard has published a seismic zonation map in 1962 and revised it in 1966, 1970, 1984 and 2002. The latest version of the seismic zoning map of India assigns four levels of seismicity for the entire Country in terms of different zone factors. The main drawback of the seismic zonation code of India (BIS-1893, 2002) is that, it is based on the past seismic activity and not based on a scientific seismic hazard analysis. Several seismic hazard studies, which were taken up in the recent years, have shown that the hazard values given by BIS-1893 (2002) need to be revised (Raghu Kanth and Iyengar 2006; Vipin et al. 2009; Mahajan et al. 2009 etc.). These facts necessitate a comprehensive study for evaluating the seismic hazard of India and development of a seismic zonation map of India based on the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) values. The objective of this thesis is to estimate the seismic hazard of entire India using updated seismicity data based on the latest and different methodologies. The major outcomes of the thesis can be summarized as follows. An updated earthquake catalog that is uniform in moment magnitude, has been prepared for India and adjoining areas for the period till 2010. Region specific magnitude scaling relations have been established for the study region, which facilitated the generation of a homogenous earthquake catalog. By carefully converting the original magnitudes to unified MW magnitudes, we have removed a major obstacle for consistent assessment of seismic hazards in India. The earthquake catalog was declustered to remove the aftershocks and foreshocks. Out of 203448 events in the raw catalog, 75.3% were found to be dependent events and remaining 50317 events were identified as main shocks of which 27146 events were of MW ≥ 4. The completeness analysis of the catalog was carried out to estimate completeness periods of different magnitude ranges. The earthquake catalog containing the details of the earthquake events until 2010 is uploaded in the website the catalog was carried out to estimate completeness periods of different magnitude ranges. The earthquake catalog containing the details of the earthquake events until 2010 is uploaded in the website the catalog was carried out to estimate completeness periods of different magnitude ranges. The earthquake catalog containing the details of the earthquake events until 2010 is uploaded in the website A quantitative study of the spatial distribution of the seismicity rate across India and its vicinity has been performed. The lower b values obtained in shield regions imply that the energy released in these regions is mostly from large magnitude events. The b value of northeast India and Andaman Nicobar region is around unity which implies that the energy released is compatible for both smaller and larger events. The effect of aftershocks in the seismicity parameters was also studied. Maximum likelihood estimations of the b value from the raw and declustered earthquake catalogs show significant changes leading to a larger proportion of low magnitude events as foreshocks and aftershocks. The inclusions of dependent events in the catalog affect the relative abundance of low and high magnitude earthquakes. Thus, greater inclusion of dependent events leads to higher b values and higher activity rate. Hence, the seismicity parameters obtained from the declustered catalog is valid as they tend to follow a Poisson distribution. Mmax does not significantly change, since it depends on the largest observed magnitude rather than the inclusion of dependent events (foreshocks and aftershocks). The spatial variation of the seismicity parameters can be used as a base to identify regions of similar characteristics and to delineate regional seismic source zones. Further, Regions of similar seismicity characteristics were identified based on fault alignment, earthquake event distribution and spatial variation of seismicity parameters. 104 regional seismic source zones were delineated which are inevitable input to seismic hazard analysis. Separate subsets of the catalog were created for each of these zones and seismicity analysis was done for each zone after estimating the cutoff magnitude. The frequency magnitude distribution plots of all the source zones can be found at http://civil.iisc.ernet.in/~sitharam . There is considerable variation in seismicity parameters and magnitude of completeness across the study area. The b values for various regions vary from a lower value of 0.5 to a higher value of 1.5. The a value for different zones vary from a lower value of 2 to a higher value of 10. The analysis of seismicity parameters shows that there is considerable difference in the earthquake recurrence rate and Mmax in India. The coordinates of these source zones and the seismicity parameters a, b & Mmax estimated can be directly input into the Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The seismic hazard evaluation of the Indian landmass based on a state-of-the art Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) study has been performed using the classical Cornell–McGuire approach with different source models and attenuation relations. The most recent knowledge of seismic activity in the region has been used to evaluate the hazard incorporating uncertainty associated with different modeling parameters as well as spatial and temporal uncertainties. The PSHA has been performed with currently available data and their best possible scientific interpretation using an appropriate instrument such as the logic tree to explicitly account for epistemic uncertainty by considering alternative models (source models, maximum magnitude in hazard computations, and ground-motion attenuation relationships). The hazard maps have been produced for horizontal ground motion at bedrock level (Shear wave velocity ≥ 3.6 km/s) and compared with the earlier studies like Bhatia et al., 1999 (India and adjoining areas); Seeber et al, 1999 (Maharashtra state); Jaiswal and Sinha, 2007 (Peninsular India); Sitharam and Vipin, 2011 (South India); Menon et al., 2010 (Tamilnadu). It was observed that the seismic hazard is moderate in Peninsular shield (except the Kutch region of Gujarat), but the hazard in the North and Northeast India and Andaman-Nicobar region is very high. The ground motion predicted from the present study will not only give hazard values for design of structures, but also will help in deciding the locations of important structures such as nuclear power plants. The evaluation of surface level PGA values is of very high importance in the engineering design. The surface level PGA values were evaluated for the entire study area for four NEHRP site classes using appropriate amplification factors. If the site class at any location in the study area is known, then the ground level PGA values can be obtained from the respective map. In the absence of VS30 values, the site classes can be identified based on local geological conditions. Thus this method provides a simplified methodology for evaluating the surface level PGA values. The evaluation of PGA values for different site classes were evaluated based on the PGA values obtained from the DSHA and PSHA. This thesis also presents VS30 characterization of entire country based on the topographic gradient using existing correlations. Further, surface level PGA contour map was developed based on the same. Liquefaction is the conversion of formally stable cohesionless soils to a fluid mass, due to increase in pore pressure and is prominent in areas that have groundwater near the surface and sandy soil. Soil liquefaction has been observed during the earthquakes because of the sudden dynamic earthquake load, which in turn increases the pore pressure. The evaluation of liquefaction potential involves evaluation of earthquake loading and evaluation of soil resistance to liquefaction. In the present work, the spatial variation of the SPT value required to prevent liquefaction has been estimated using a probabilistic methodology, for entire India. To summarize, the major contribution of this thesis are the development of region specific magnitude correlations suitable for Indian subcontinent and an updated homogeneous earthquake catalog for India that is uniform in moment magnitude scale. The delineation and characterization of regional seismic source zones for a vast country like India is a unique contribution, which requires reasonable observation and engineering judgement. Considering complex seismotectonic set up of the country, the present work employed numerous methodologies (DSHA and PSHA) in analyzing the seismic hazard using appropriate instrument such as the logic tree to explicitly account for epistemic uncertainties considering alternative models (For Source model, Mmax estimation and Ground motion prediction equations) to estimate the PGA value at bedrock level. Further, VS30 characterization of India was done based on the topographic gradient, as a first level approach, which facilitated the development of surface level PGA map for entire country using appropriate amplification factors. Above factors make the present work very unique and comprehensive touching various aspects of seismic hazard. It is hoped that the methodology and outcomes presented in this thesis will be beneficial to practicing engineers and researchers working in the area of seismology and geotechnical engineering in particular and to the society as a whole

Spatial variation of seismicity parameters across India and adjoining areas

An attempt has been made to quantify the variability in the seismic activity rate across the whole of India and adjoining areas (0–45°N and 60–105°E) using earthquake database compiled from various sources. Both historical and instrumental data were compiled and the complete catalog of Indian earthquakes till 2010 has been prepared. Region-specific earthquake magnitude scaling relations correlating different magnitude scales were achieved to develop a homogenous earthquake catalog for the region in unified moment magnitude scale. The dependent events (75.3%) in the raw catalog have been removed and the effect of aftershocks on the variation of b value has been quantified. The study area was divided into 2,025 grid points (1°91°) and the spatial variation of the seismicity across the region have been analyzed considering all the events within 300 km radius from each grid point. A significant decrease in seismic b value was seen when declustered catalog was used which illustrates that a larger proportion of dependent events in the earthquake catalog are related to lower magnitude events. A list of 203,448 earth- quakes (including aftershocks and foreshocks) occurred in the region covering the period from 250 B.C. to 2010 A.D. with all available details is uploaded in the website http://www.civil.iisc.ernet.in/*sreevals/resource.htm

Dynamic Soil Structure Interaction of a High-Rise Building Resting over a Finned Pile Mat

High-rise building safety is generally supported by pile-mat systems. They must be sturdy enough to withstand potential lateral loads brought on by earthquakes, wind, dredging, and machine vibrations, in addition to increased axial loads. An innovative piled-mat foundation system is required to deal with these impacts because standard pile foundation systems only have lateral capacities that are 10% of their axial capacities. This study aims to reduce the damage caused by seismic impacts on high-rise buildings using shear walls supported by piled mats, thereby minimizing vibrations within the structure. Compared with conventional pile systems, the finned-pile foundation is a proven method that can withstand a 65% to 80% higher lateral load; hence, a series of SSI analyses were performed on a 25-story high-rise building, with the shear wall resting on a finned-pile mat (FP-Mat), under a far-field earthquake excitation, using ABAQUS software. The seismic responses were studied by performing a time–history analysis on the FP-Mat, with varying fin-lengths (Lf) of 0.2Lp, 0.4Lp, 0.6Lp, and 0.8Lp, which was compared with an analysis of a conventional piled-mat (RP-Mat). The seismic responses for RP-Mat and FP-Mats were studied with peak-acceleration, maximum horizontal displacement, and inter-story drifts acting as the damage parameters. The provision of FP-Mats significantly reduced the vibrations and seismic effects on the building, and as the fin-length increased, the vibrations and seismic effects reduced further. The drifting bound was also reduced as the fin-length increased. The optimum fin-length for FP-Mats is suggested to be 0.6Lp in terms of seismic performance and construction efficiency. This study helps one understand the seismic behaviors of high-rise buildings resting on finned pile mats

Comprehensive Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of the Andaman-Nicobar Regions

An updated catalog of earthquakes has been prepared for the Andaman-Nicobar and adjoining regions. The catalog was homogenized to a unified magnitude scale, and declustering of the catalog was performed to remove aftershocks and foreshocks. Eleven regional source zones were identified in the study area to account for local variability in seismicity characteristics. The seismicity parameters were estimated for each of these source zones, and the seismic hazard evaluation of the Andaman-Nicobar region has been performed using different source models and attenuation relations. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been performed with currently available data and their best possible scientific interpretation using an appropriate instrument such as the logic tree to explicitly account for epistemic uncertainty by considering alternative models (source models, maximum magnitude, and attenuation relationships). The hazard maps for different periods have been produced for horizontal ground motion on the bedrock level

Seismic hazard analysis of India using areal sources

In view of the major advancement made in understanding the seismicity and seismotectonics of the Indian region in recent times, an updated probabilistic seismic hazard map of India covering 6-38 degrees N and 68-98 degrees E is prepared. This paper presents the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of India done using regional seismic source zones and four well recognized attenuation relations considering varied tectonic provinces in the region. The study area was divided into small grids of size 0.1 degrees x 0.1 degrees. Peak Horizontal Acceleration (PHA) and spectral accelerations for periods 0.1 s and 1 s have been estimated and contour maps showing the spatial variation of the same are presented in the paper. The present study shows that the seismic hazard is moderate in peninsular shield, but the hazard in most parts of North and Northeast India is high. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Probabilistic assessment of surface level seismic hazard in India using topographic gradient as a proxy for site condition

This paper presents spatial variation of seismic hazard at the surface level for India, covering 6–38° N and 68–98° E. The most recent knowledge on seismic activity in the region has been used to evaluate the hazard incorporating uncertainties associated with the seismicity parameters using different modeling methodologies. Three types of seismic source models, viz. linear sources, gridded seismicity model and areal sources, were considered to model the seismic sources and different sets of ground motion prediction equations were used for different tectonic provinces to characterize the attenuation properties. The hazard estimation at bedrock level has been carried out using probabilistic approach and the results obtained from various methodologies were combined in a logic tree framework. The seismic site characterization of India was done using topographic slope map derived from Digital Elevation Model data. This paper presents estimation of the hazard at surface level, using appropriate site amplification factors corresponding to various site classes based on VS30 values derived from the topographic gradient. Spatial variation of surface level peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) for return periods of 475 years and 2475 years are presented as contour maps

Seismic Hazard Assessment and Land Use Analysis of Mangalore City, Karnataka, India

This article presents a combined seismic risk assessment of Mangalore city, considering seismic hazard and Land Use (LU) patterns. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis was carried out considering different source models and attenuation relations to predict Peak Ground Acceleration at every square kilometer. LU of the area was assessed using GIS tools with the built-in supervised Gaussian maximum likelihood algorithm on processed remote sensing data from temporal Landsat images. The risk map showed the concentration of built-up area South-West, toward the sea and the seismic hazard following an increasing trend from the coast to further inland