Predictive Power Estimation Algorithm (PPEA) - A New Algorithm to Reduce Overfitting for Genomic Biomarker Discovery

Toxicogenomics promises to aid in predicting adverse effects, understanding the mechanisms of drug action or toxicity, and uncovering unexpected or secondary pharmacology. However, modeling adverse effects using high dimensional and high noise genomic data is prone to over-fitting. Models constructed from such data sets often consist of a large number of genes with no obvious functional relevance to the biological effect the model intends to predict that can make it challenging to interpret the modeling results. To address these issues, we developed a novel algorithm, Predictive Power Estimation Algorithm (PPEA), which estimates the predictive power of each individual transcript through an iterative two-way bootstrapping procedure. By repeatedly enforcing that the sample number is larger than the transcript number, in each iteration of modeling and testing, PPEA reduces the potential risk of overfitting. We show with three different cases studies that: (1) PPEA can quickly derive a reliable rank order of predictive power of individual transcripts in a relatively small number of iterations, (2) the top ranked transcripts tend to be functionally related to the phenotype they are intended to predict, (3) using only the most predictive top ranked transcripts greatly facilitates development of multiplex assay such as qRT-PCR as a biomarker, and (4) more importantly, we were able to demonstrate that a small number of genes identified from the top-ranked transcripts are highly predictive of phenotype as their expression changes distinguished adverse from nonadverse effects of compounds in completely independent tests. Thus, we believe that the PPEA model effectively addresses the over-fitting problem and can be used to facilitate genomic biomarker discovery for predictive toxicology and drug responses

Recurrent Signature Patterns in HIV-1 B Clade Envelope Glycoproteins Associated with either Early or Chronic Infections

Here we have identified HIV-1 B clade Envelope (Env) amino acid signatures from early in infection that may be favored at transmission, as well as patterns of recurrent mutation in chronic infection that may reflect common pathways of immune evasion. To accomplish this, we compared thousands of sequences derived by single genome amplification from several hundred individuals that were sampled either early in infection or were chronically infected. Samples were divided at the outset into hypothesis-forming and validation sets, and we used phylogenetically corrected statistical strategies to identify signatures, systematically scanning all of Env. Signatures included single amino acids, glycosylation motifs, and multi-site patterns based on functional or structural groupings of amino acids. We identified signatures near the CCR5 co-receptor-binding region, near the CD4 binding site, and in the signal peptide and cytoplasmic domain, which may influence Env expression and processing. Two signatures patterns associated with transmission were particularly interesting. The first was the most statistically robust signature, located in position 12 in the signal peptide. The second was the loss of an N-linked glycosylation site at positions 413–415; the presence of this site has been recently found to be associated with escape from potent and broad neutralizing antibodies, consistent with enabling a common pathway for immune escape during chronic infection. Its recurrent loss in early infection suggests it may impact fitness at the time of transmission or during early viral expansion. The signature patterns we identified implicate Env expression levels in selection at viral transmission or in early expansion, and suggest that immune evasion patterns that recur in many individuals during chronic infection when antibodies are present can be selected against when the infection is being established prior to the adaptive immune response

Prediction of beta-turns at over 80% accuracy based on an ensemble of predicted secondary structures and multiple alignments

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p><it>β</it>-turn is a secondary protein structure type that plays significant role in protein folding, stability, and molecular recognition. To date, several methods for prediction of <it>β</it>-turns from protein sequences were developed, but they are characterized by relatively poor prediction quality. The novelty of the proposed sequence-based <it>β</it>-turn predictor stems from the usage of a window based information extracted from four predicted three-state secondary structures, which together with a selected set of position specific scoring matrix (PSSM) values serve as an input to the support vector machine (SVM) predictor.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We show that (1) all four predicted secondary structures are useful; (2) the most useful information extracted from the predicted secondary structure includes the structure of the predicted residue, secondary structure content in a window around the predicted residue, and features that indicate whether the predicted residue is inside a secondary structure segment; (3) the PSSM values of Asn, Asp, Gly, Ile, Leu, Met, Pro, and Val were among the top ranked features, which corroborates with recent studies. The Asn, Asp, Gly, and Pro indicate potential <it>β</it>-turns, while the remaining four amino acids are useful to predict non-<it>β</it>-turns. Empirical evaluation using three nonredundant datasets shows favorable Q_total, Q_predictedand MCC values when compared with over a dozen of modern competing methods. Our method is the first to break the 80% Q_totalbarrier and achieves Q_total= 80.9%, MCC = 0.47, and Q_predictedhigher by over 6% when compared with the second best method. We use feature selection to reduce the dimensionality of the feature vector used as the input for the proposed prediction method. The applied feature set is smaller by 86, 62 and 37% when compared with the second and two third-best (with respect to MCC) competing methods, respectively.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Experiments show that the proposed method constitutes an improvement over the competing prediction methods. The proposed prediction model can better discriminate between <it>β</it>-turns and non-<it>β</it>-turns due to obtaining lower numbers of false positive predictions. The prediction model and datasets are freely available at <url>http://biomine.ece.ualberta.ca/BTNpred/BTNpred.html</url>.</p