Where the wild things are: Seasonal variation in caribou distribution in relation to climate change

In this study, we develop a method to analyse the relationships between seasonal caribou distribution and climate, to estimate how climatic conditions affect interactions between humans and caribou, and ultimately to predict patterns of distribution relative to climate change. Satellite locations for the Porcupine (Rangifer tarandus granti) and Bathurst (R. t. groenlandicus) caribou herds were analysed for eight ecologically-defined seasons. For each season, two levels of a key environmental factor influencing caribou distribution were identified, as well as the best climate data available to indicate the factor's annual state. Satellite locations were grouped according to the relevant combination of season and environmental factor. Caribou distributions were compared for opposing environmental factors; this comparison was undertaken relative to hunting access for the Porcupine Herd and relative to exposure to mining activity for the Bathurst Herd. Expected climate trends suggest an overall increase in access to Porcupine caribou for Aklavik (NWT) hunters during the winter and rut seasons, for Venetie (Alaska) hunters during midsummer and fall migration and for Arctic Village (Alaska) during midsummer. Arctic Village may experience reduced availability with early snowfalls in the fall, but we expect there to be little directional shift in the spring migration patterns. For the Bathurst Herd, we expect that fewer caribou would be exposed to the mines during the winter, while more caribou would be exposed to the combined Ekati and Diavik mining zone in the early summer and to the Lupin-Jericho mining zone during the fall migration. If changes in climate cause an increased presence of caribou in the mining sites, monitoring and mitigation measures may need to be intensified

Changing Daily Wind Speeds on Alaska’s North Slope: Implications for Rural Hunting Opportunities

Because of their reliance on the harvest of fish and game, Alaskan rural communities have experienced a variety of impacts from climate change, the effects of which are amplified at high latitudes. We collaborated with hunters from the coastal community of Wainwright, Alaska, to document their observations of environmental change (e.g., sea ice, wind, temperature) and the implications of those changes for opportunities to hunt bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) during spring and caribou (Rangifer tarandus) during summer. We integrated hunter observations on wind with statistical analysis of daily wind speed data collected in the nearby community of Barrow, Alaska, between 1971 and 2010 to characterize changes in the number of days with suitable hunting conditions. Hunters in Wainwright currently observe fewer days than in previous decades with wind conditions suitable for safely hunting bowhead whales and caribou. The statistical analysis of wind speed data supported these conclusions and suggested that the annual windows of opportunity for hunting each species have decreased by up to seven days since 1971. This study demonstrates the potential power of collaboration between local communities and researchers to characterize the societal impacts of climate change. Continued collaborative research with residents of rural northern Alaskan communities could produce knowledge and develop tools to help rural Alaskans adapt to novel social-ecological conditions.Les collectivités rurales de l’Alaska dépendent de la récolte du poisson et du gibier et à ce titre, elles sont assujetties à une panoplie d’incidences découlant du changement climatique, dont les effets sont amplifiés en haute altitude. Grâce à l’aide des chasseurs de la collectivité côtière de Wainwright, en Alaska, nous avons consigné les observations de ces chasseurs relativement à l’évolution de l’environnement (en ce qui a trait, par exemple, à la glace de mer, au vent et aux températures) de même que les incidences de cette évolution sur les possibilités de chasse de la baleine boréale (Balaena mysticetus) au printemps, et du caribou (Rangifer tarandus) à l’été. Nous avons intégré les observations des chasseurs au sujet du vent à l’analyse statistique des données de la vitesse quotidienne du vent, données recueillies dans la localité avoisinante de Barrow, en Alaska, entre 1971 et 2010, afin de caractériser les changements quant au nombre de jours où les conditions de chasse sont convenables. Comparativement aux décennies précédentes, les chasseurs de Wainwright observent un moins grand nombre de jours, à l’heure actuelle, qu’au cours des décennies précédentes pendant lesquels le régime des vents se prête à la chasse sécuritaire de la baleine boréale et du caribou. L’analyse statistique des données de la vitesse du vent permet de soutenir ces conclusions et suggère qu’annuellement, la période pendant laquelle chacune de ces espèces peut faire l’objet de la chasse a diminué dans une mesure allant jusqu’à sept jours depuis 1971. Cette étude témoigne du pouvoir de collaboration qui pourrait exister entre les collectivités de la région et les chercheurs dans le but de caractériser les incidences du changement climatique sur la société. Les travaux de recherche en collaboration continue avec les habitants des collectivités rurales du nord de l’Alaska pourraient permettre de produire des connaissances et d’élaborer des outils qui aideraient les Alaskiens à s’adapter aux nouvelles conditions socioécologiques

Ecosystem Stewardship: Sustainability Strategies for a Rapidly Changing Planet

Ecosystem stewardship is an action-oriented framework intended to foster social-ecological sustainability of a rapidly changing planet. Recent developments identify three strategies that make optimal use of current understanding in an environment of inevitable uncertainty and abrupt change: reducing the magnitude of, and exposure and sensitivity to, known stresses; focusing on proactive policies that shape change; and avoiding or escaping unsustainable social-ecological traps. All social-ecological systems are vulnerable to recent and projected changes but have sources of adaptive capacity and resilience that can sustain ecosystem services and human well-being through active ecosystem stewardship

Meeting institutional criteria for social resilience: a nested risk system model

Communities of Alaska's North Slope face increased stresses from cumulative effects of industrial development, resource use, and changing cryospheric and socioeconomic conditions. Given these multiple pressures, what avenues exist for citizens and decision makers to exchange knowledge about impacts of oil resource extraction in Alaska, and how do the successes and failures of knowledge exchange affect the resilience of the local social ecological system? We focused our research on the risk management process of Alaska North Slope oil resources, drawing on literature that has grown out of the risk society thesis and concepts of resilience science. We surveyed state and federal initiatives designed to increase local and indigenous stakeholder engagement in science and policy issues because such guidelines and regulations impact on the abilities of local peoples and communities to adapt sustainability strategies. Perceived risks and desired outcomes of stakeholders on the front lines of climate change and resource development should inform regulations that aim to anticipate future impacts and needed adaptation strategies. Integration of local values and perceptions in an adaptive risk management approach is fundamental in resilience-based ecosystem stewardship. The three case studies we have presented show that current provisions fail to equitably include the local and indigenous knowledge of Alaska's North Slope Borough communities in environmental risk mediation in proportion to the scope of risks inherent in current oil development policies. Our findings underscore the need for new, proactive risk management strategies that build on local stakeholders' rationalities on the trade-offs of risks and opportunities

Influence of Hunter Adaptability on Resilience of Subsistence Hunting Systems

The capacity of hunters to shape the fundamental properties of their lifestyle at times when extrinsic factors change the availability of subsistence foods is critical to subsistence cultures. Recent changes in deer hunting on Prince of Wales Island, Alaska illustrate the social-ecological challenges to the resilience of a rural subsistence hunting system and raise the broader question of whether efficient hunting strategies necessarily enhance resilience. During the latter half of the 20th century, indigenous people of Alaska’s Prince of Wales Island adapted to changing subsistence opportunities by capitalizing on increased availability of deer due to clearcut logging and the construction of roads. Consequently, deer became a more important source of protein. Four decades later, a decline in logging activity is likely to reduce deer availability due to successional changes in habitat. In the face of this social-ecological change, the resilience of the deer hunting component of subsistence traditions will depend on hunters’ capacity to adapt to irreversible landscape changes by adopting different harvest strategies that may require more effort to maintain sufficient levels of subsistence harvest. For example, hunters may return to pre-road hunting methods or reduce their reliance on deer for meat and re-emphasize marine resources. These ecologically driven changes in social harvesting practices suggest that adaptability protecting the fundamental properties of a subsistence system from one disturbance may increase vulnerability to another. We show that increased efficiency of a subsistence system did not necessarily enhance resilience if system flexibility is reduced

Building resilience through interlocal relations: Case studies of polar bear and walrus management in the Bering Strait

Arctic coastal communities in the Bering Strait region of Alaska (USA) and Chukotka (Russia) share a close relationship with their natural environments that can be characterized as a social-ecological system. This system is complex, featuring changing ecosystem conditions, multiple jurisdictions, migratory animal populations, and several cultures. We argue that linkages between communities in both countries enhance the effectiveness of transborder polar bear and walrus conservation. We find that locally embedded bilateral institutions can provide effective management venues that persist despite slow or lacking processes of international law because they provide a better fit between rules for managing and the true system state.Social-ecological systems Transborder conservation Wildlife management Cross-scale interactions Co-management Marine mammals

Seasonal Climate Variation and Caribou Availability: Modeling Sequential Movement Using Satellite-Relocation Data

Livelihood systems that depend on mobile resources must constantly adapt to change. For people living in permanent settlements, environmental changes that affect the distribution of a migratory species may reduce the availability of a primary food source, with the potential to destabilize the regional social-ecological system. Food security for Arctic indigenous peoples harvesting barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) depends on movement patterns of migratory herds. Quantitative assessments of physical, ecological, and social effects on caribou distribution have proven difficult because of the significant interannual variability in seasonal caribou movement patterns. We developed and evaluated a modeling approach for simulating the distribution of a migratory herd throughout its annual cycle over a multiyear period. Beginning with spatial and temporal scales developed in previous studies of the Porcupine Caribou Herd of Canada and Alaska, we used satellite collar locations to compute and analyze season-by-season probabilities of movement of animals between habitat zones under two alternative weather conditions for each season. We then built a set of transition matrices from these movement probabilities, and simulated the sequence of movements across the landscape as a Markov process driven by externally imposed seasonal weather states. Statistical tests showed that the predicted distributions of caribou were consistent with observed distributions, and significantly correlated with subsistence harvest levels for three user communities. Our approach could be applied to other caribou herds and could be adapted for simulating the distribution of other ungulates and species with similarly large interannual variability in the use of their range

Parks, people, and change: the importance of multistakeholder engagement in adaptation planning for conserved areas

Climate change challenges the traditional goals and conservation strategies of protected areas, necessitating adaptation to changing conditions. Denali National Park and Preserve (Denali) in south central Alaska, USA, is a vast landscape that is responding to climate change in ways that will impact both ecological resources and local communities. Local observations help to inform understanding of climate change and adaptation planning, but whose knowledge is most important to consider? For this project we interviewed long-term Denali staff, scientists, subsistence community members, bus drivers, and business owners to assess what types of observations each can contribute, how climate change is impacting each, and what they think the National Park Service should do to adapt. The project shows that each type of long-term observer has different types of observations, but that those who depend more directly on natural resources for their livelihoods have more and different observations than those who do not. These findings suggest that engaging multiple groups of stakeholders who interact with the park in distinct ways adds substantially to the information provided by Denali staff and scientists and offers a broader foundation for adaptation planning. It also suggests that traditional protected area paradigms that fail to learn from and foster appropriate engagement of people may be maladaptive in the context of climate change

Seasonal Climate Variation and Caribou Availability: Modeling Sequential Movement Using Satellite-Relocation Data CircumArtic Rangifer Monitoring and Assessment Network (CARMA), 8 Alaska Ocean Observing System

ABSTRACT Livelihood systems that depend on mobile resources must constantly adapt to change. For people living in permanent settlements, environmental changes that affect the distribution of a migratory species may reduce the availability of a primary food source, with the potential to destabilize the regional social-ecological system. Food security for Arctic indigenous peoples harvesting barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) depends on movement patterns of migratory herds. Quantitative assessments of physical, ecological, and social effects on caribou distribution have proven difficult because of the significant interannual variability in seasonal caribou movement patterns. We developed and evaluated a modeling approach for simulating the distribution of a migratory herd throughout its annual cycle over a multiyear period. Beginning with spatial and temporal scales developed in previous studies of the Porcupine Caribou Herd of Canada and Alaska, we used satellite collar locations to compute and analyze season-by-season probabilities of movement of animals between habitat zones under two alternative weather conditions for each season. We then built a set of transition matrices from these movement probabilities, and simulated the sequence of movements across the landscape as a Markov process driven by externally imposed seasonal weather states. Statistical tests showed that the predicted distributions of caribou were consistent with observed distributions, and significantly correlated with subsistence harvest levels for three user communities. Our approach could be applied to other caribou herds and could be adapted for simulating the distribution of other ungulates and species with similarly large interannual variability in the use of their range