Determining Default Probabilities for FSA Direct Loans

A binomial logit model was used to analyze relationships between financial characteristics and loan performance for FSA direct borrowers receiving direct FO or OL loans in fiscal 2005. Not surprisingly, the results indicate a strong and direct relationship between many key financial variables and probability of default. Production specialization, however, was indicated to have just as important an impact on probability of default as many financial variables. Other strong indicators included farm size, membership in a targeted group, and the ability to obtain credit from commercial lenders.FSA credit programs, loan defaults, credit risk models, risk rating, Agricultural Finance, Financial Economics,

Explaining Regional Demand for Federal Farm Credit Programs: An Ordinal Probit Approach

Demand for federally subsidized farm credit varies regionally, with farm borrowers in some regions very dependent on USDA credit programs. Counties are grouped based on their level of demand for Farm Service Agency (FSA) direct farm ownership (FO) and farm operating loans (OL). Ordinal probit techniques are applied to analyze factors influencing county-level variation in the use of the loan programs. Results suggest that counties with the highest level of demand are more likely to have a Farm Credit System branch office, are more likely to be dependent on farming, have a greater share of farms owing debt, and have fewer guaranteed FSA borrowers and racial and ethnic minorities.Agricultural Finance, Demand and Price Analysis,

The Competitiveness of Farm Credit Markets in a Deregulated Environment

Despite the proliferation of banking offices occurring since banking deregulation, about one-third of all counties in the US were still considered to have little competition with respect to agricultural credit. Counties considered less competitive were located in regions where farming is less prevalent; Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Appalachia, and Southeast. There was no evidence that farm interest rates charged by commercial banks were higher regions with less competition. Higher FCS interest rates in counties with less competitive suggested that full-time commercial-size farms may be disadvantaged by a lack of credit market competition.Agricultural Finance,

Factors Determining the Use of Guaranteed Loans by U.S. Commercial Banks

Financial Economics,

ANALYSIS OF BORROWER AND LENDER USE OF INTEREST ASSISTANCE ON FSA GUARANTEED FARM LOANS

The Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002 made permanent the interest assistance program for the Farm Service Agency's guaranteed loans, authorized a significant increase in funding for the program, and targeted funding for beginning farmers and ranchers. The research presented here provides a basic descriptive analysis of past use. In particular, borrower data for Federal fiscal years 1985 through 2002 are examined in several dimensions. These dimensions include geographic, borrower type, lender type, interest rate differentials, percent guarantee, and the status of the loan as to whether a loss claim was paid or the loan remained active. Even though the program has been in existence for more than 15 years, little is known about its impact and utilization. This research is an initial step in documenting usage of the program.Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance,

Models of Farm Service Agency Guaranteed Loan Loss Claim Rates in the U.S. for 1990-1998

The Farm Service Agency guaranteed loan program is an important source of credit for family-sized farming operations in Arkansas and the other states of the U.S. This program provides loan guarantees to borrowers who are otherwise unable to obtain credit from traditional lenders at reasonable rates and terms. This study identifies those factors related to the program’s loss claim rate performance over the years fiscal 1989 through 1998 using state-level data from forty states. For both the operating loan and farm ownership loan programs, farm operator financial variables, interest rates, and commercial bank characteristics are found to be statistically significant variables in explaining loss claim rate variation

Bovine Model of Doxorubicin-Induced Cardiomyopathy

Left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) constitute a recent advance in heart failure (HF) therapeutics. As the rigorous experimental assessment of LVADs in HF requires large animal models, our objective was to develop a bovine model of cardiomyopathy. Male calves (n = 8) were used. Four animals received 1.2 mg/kg intravenous doxorubicin weekly for seven weeks and four separate animals were studied as controls. Doxorubicin-treated animals were followed with weekly echocardiography. Target LV dysfunction was defined as an ejection fraction ≤35%. Sixty days after initiating doxorubicin, a terminal study was performed to determine hemodynamic, histological, biochemical, and molecular parameters. All four doxorubicin-treated animals exhibited significant (P < 0.05) contractile dysfunction, with target LV dysfunction achieved in three animals. Doxorubicin-treated hearts exhibited significantly reduced coronary blood flow and interstitial fibrosis and significantly increased apoptosis and myocyte size. Gene expression of atrial natriuretic factor increased more than 3-fold. Plasma norepinephrine and epinephrine levels were significantly increased early and late during the development of cardiomyopathy, respectively. We conclude that sequential administration of intravenous doxorubicin in calves induces a cardiomyopathy with many phenotypic hallmarks of the failing human heart. This clinically-relevant model may be useful for testing pathophysiologic responses to LVADs in the context of HF

The Conservation Reserve Program: Economic Implications for Rural America

This report estimates the impact that high levels of enrollment in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) have had on economic trends in rural counties since the program's inception in 1985 until today. The results of a growth model and quasi-experimental control group analysis indicate no discernible impact by the CRP on aggregate county population trends. Aggregate employment growth may have slowed in some high-CRP counties, but only temporarily. High levels of CRP enrollment appear to have affected farm-related businesses over the long run, but growth in the number of other nonfarm businesses moderated CRP's impact on total employment. If CRP contracts had ended in 2001, simulation models suggest that roughly 51 percent of CRP land would have returned to crop production, and that spending on outdoor recreation would decrease by as much as $300 million per year in rural areas. The resulting impacts on employment and income vary widely among regions having similar CRP enrollments, depending upon local economic conditions.Community/Rural/Urban Development, Land Economics/Use,

Ultrathin Oxide Films by Atomic Layer Deposition on Graphene

In this paper, a method is presented to create and characterize mechanically robust, free standing, ultrathin, oxide films with controlled, nanometer-scale thickness using Atomic Layer Deposition (ALD) on graphene. Aluminum oxide films were deposited onto suspended graphene membranes using ALD. Subsequent etching of the graphene left pure aluminum oxide films only a few atoms in thickness. A pressurized blister test was used to determine that these ultrathin films have a Young's modulus of 154 \pm 13 GPa. This Young's modulus is comparable to much thicker alumina ALD films. This behavior indicates that these ultrathin two-dimensional films have excellent mechanical integrity. The films are also impermeable to standard gases suggesting they are pinhole-free. These continuous ultrathin films are expected to enable new applications in fields such as thin film coatings, membranes and flexible electronics.Comment: Nano Letters (just accepted

Ultra-strong Adhesion of Graphene Membranes

As mechanical structures enter the nanoscale regime, the influence of van der Waals forces increases. Graphene is attractive for nanomechanical systems because its Young's modulus and strength are both intrinsically high, but the mechanical behavior of graphene is also strongly influenced by the van der Waals force. For example, this force clamps graphene samples to substrates, and also holds together the individual graphene sheets in multilayer samples. Here we use a pressurized blister test to directly measure the adhesion energy of graphene sheets with a silicon oxide substrate. We find an adhesion energy of 0.45 \pm 0.02 J/m2 for monolayer graphene and 0.31 \pm 0.03 J/m2 for samples containing 2-5 graphene sheets. These values are larger than the adhesion energies measured in typical micromechanical structures and are comparable to solid/liquid adhesion energies. We attribute this to the extreme flexibility of graphene, which allows it to conform to the topography of even the smoothest substrates, thus making its interaction with the substrate more liquid-like than solid-like.Comment: to appear in Nature Nanotechnolog