The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) is not appropriate for withholding surgery in high-risk patients with aortic stenosis: a retrospective cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) is a widely used risk assessment tool in patients with severe aortic stenosis to determine operability and to select patients for alternative therapies such as transcatheter aortic valve implantation. The objective of this study was to determine the accuracy of the EuroSCORE in predicting mortality following aortic valve replacement (AVR).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The logistic EuroSCORE was determined for all consecutive patients that underwent conventional AVR between 1995 and 2005 at our institution. Provincial Vital Statistics were used to determine all-cause mortality. The accuracy of the prognostic risk prediction provided by logistic EuroSCORE was assessed by comparing observed and expected operative mortality.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>During the study period, a total of 1,421 patients underwent AVR including 237 patients (16.7%) that had a logistic EuroSCORE > 20. Among these patients, the mean predicted operative mortality was 38.7% (SD = 18.1). The actual mortality of these patients was significantly lower than that predicted by EuroSCORE (11.4% vs. 38.7%, observed/expected ratio 0.29, 95% CI 0.15–0.52, P < 0.05). The EuroSCORE overestimated mortality within all strata of predicted risk. Although medium-term mortality is significantly higher among patients with EuroSCORE > 20 (log rank P = 0.0001), approximately 60% are alive at five years.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Actual operative mortality in patients undergoing AVR is significantly lower than that predicted by the logistic EuroSCORE. Additionally, medium-term survival following AVR is acceptable in high-risk patients with EuroSCORE > 20. More accurate risk prediction models are needed for risk-stratifying patients with severe aortic stenosis.</p

Quantitative assessment of paravalvular regurgitation following transcatheter aortic valve replacement

Paravalvular aortic regurgitation (PAR) following transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is well acknowledged. Despite improvements, echocardiographic measurement of PAR largely remains qualitative. Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) directly quantifies AR with accuracy and reproducibility. We compared CMR and transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) analysis of pre-operative and post-operative aortic regurgitation in patients undergoing both TAVI and surgical aortic valve replacement (AVR).Gareth Crouch, Phillip J Tully, Jayme Bennetts, Ajay Sinhal, Craig Bradbrook, Amy L Penhall, Carmine G De Pasquale, Robert A Baker, and Joseph B Selvanayaga

Prediction of paravalvular leakage after transcatheter aortic valve implantation

Significant paravalvular leakage (PVL) after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is related to patient mortality. Predicting the development of PVL has focused on computed tomography (CT) derived variables but literature targeting CoreValve devices is limited, controversial, and did not make use of standardized echocardiographic methods. The study included 164 consecutive patients with severe aortic stenosis that underwent TAVI with a Medtronic CoreValve system©, with available pre-TAVI CT and pre-discharge transthoracic echocardiography. The predictive value for significant PVL of the CT-derived Agatston score, aortic annulus size and eccentricity, and “cover index” was assessed, according to both echocardiographic Valve Academic Research Consortium (VARC) criteria and angiographic Sellers criteria. Univariate predictors for more than mild PVL were the maximal diameter of the aortic annulus size (for both angiographic and echocardiographic assessment of PVL), cover index (for echocardiographic assessment of PVL only), and Agatston score (for both angiographic and echocardiographic assessment of PVL). The aortic annulus eccentricity index was not predicting PVL. At multivariate analysis, Agatston score was the only independent predictor for both angiographic and echocardiographic assessment of PVL. Agatston score is the only independent predictor of PVL regardless of the used imaging technique for the definition of PVL