Climate change adaptation in dynamic economies

Headline issue: Adaptation presents developing countries with the ultimate dual challenge – building a rapidly evolving, sustainable economy within an environment increasingly altered by the impacts of climate change. To meet this challenge, adaptation policy must find balance and create synergy between the two, as climate resilience and economic resilience go hand in hand. Economic development is associated with structural change, including an evolving sector composition, the emergence of new comparative advantages and skills, and shifts in consumer demand as a result of rising incomes – all of which has implications for adaptation. Existing attempts to adapt developing economies to climate change have nonetheless ignored these economic dynamics. Current approaches to adaptation often seek to preserve current structures, for example by protecting agricultural output, which neither acknowledges nor takes advantage of the fact that the status quo is evolving. This policy brief explores the implications of dynamic economic development for adaptation to climate change. Policy lessons are derived from two case studies, the country of Colombia and the Indian state of West Bengal. The case studies are illustrative and used to identify broader policy lessons. Key findings: Economic development plans must not underestimate climate risks. Particularly when it comes to agriculture, current development plans often promote development models or set development objectives that are impractical or risky in the light of climate change. Development plans have to become more climate-aware. Conversely, adaptation plans must not underestimate the dynamism of modern economies. Badly designed adaptation plans may hinder development by focusing too much on the status quo (e.g. in situ measures to maintain agricultural output) instead of embracing more transformative forms of adaptation (e.g. rural diversification). Development planners and adaptation planners need to work more closely together. This will force economic planners to consider sectoral growth dynamics in light of climate risks and adaptation planners to factor into their planning the evolving economic system. It will make it easier to identify potential synergies and manage climate-risk – development trade-offs. One area for such trade-offs is productivity, where some improvements may come at the expense of higher climate risk. Economic growth offers an opportunity to alter for the long term the risk profile of countries with respect to climate change. There is the possibility to build climate resilience into decisions from the outset. To do this, adaptation plans need to systematically identify the opportunities, or ‘entry points’, where proactive adaptation can be factored into development strategies and long-term investment plans

Flooded cities

Does economic activity move away from areas that are at high risk of recurring shocks? We examine this question in the context of floods, which displaced more than 650 million people worldwide in the last 35 years. We study large urban floods using spatially detailed inundation maps and night lights data spanning the globe's cities. We find that low-elevation urban areas are flooded more frequently, and yet they concentrate more economic activity per square kilometer. When cities are flooded, low-elevation areas recover as rapidly as those higher up. With the exception of recently populated urban areas, we find little permanent movement of economic activity in response to floods

Flooded cities

Does economic activity relocate away from areas that are at high risk of recurring shocks? We examine this question in the context of floods, which are among the costliest and most common natural disasters. Over the past thirty years, floods worldwide killed more than 500,000 people and displaced over 650,000,000 people. This paper analyzes the effect of large scale floods, which displaced at least 100,000 people each, in over 1,800 cities in 40 countries, from 2003-2008. We conduct our analysis using spatially detailed inundation maps and night lights data spanning the globe's urban areas. We find that low elevation areas are about 3-4 times more likely to be hit by large floods than other areas, and yet they concentrate more economic activity per square kilometre. When cities are hit by large floods, the low elevation areas also sustain more damage, but like the rest of the flooded cities they recover rapidly, and economic activity does not move to safer areas. Only in more recently populated urban areas, flooded areas show a larger and more persistent decline in economic activity. Our findings have important policy implications for aid, development and urban planning in a world with rising urbanization and sea levels

Spatial econometrics of multiregional growth: The case of India

The focus of this paper is the simultaneous growth of a system of spatial units with India the case for empirical testing. The framework used to model the multiregional dynamics is consistent with spatial theory and spatial econometrics. It builds on the work by Arbia and Paelinck, which proposes a model based on the classical Lotka-Volterra predator-prey system to consider potential convergence dynamics of regions. The paper proposes a different method to estimate dynamic interdependencies and in its empirical exercise distinguishes between dynamics that may arise from geographic proximity and those that may arise from equivalent structures. Copyright (c) 2009 the author(s). Journal compilation (c) 2009 RSAI.

Flooded cities

Does economic activity move away from areas that are at high risk of recurring shocks? We examine this question in the context of floods, which displaced more than 650 million people worldwide in the last 35 years. We study large urban floods using spatially detailed inundation maps and night lights data spanning the globe's cities. We find that low-elevation urban areas are flooded more frequently, and yet they concentrate more economic activity per square kilometer. When cities are flooded, low-elevation areas recover as rapidly as those higher up. With the exception of recently populated urban areas, we find little permanent movement of economic activity in response to floods.peer-reviewe

Social Impact of Value-Based Banking: Best Practises and a Continuity Framework

How do financial institutions enable social impact? We examined this question in the context of values-based financial institutions, which are amongst the most experienced institutions around the world in addressing the very real banking needs of enterprises and individuals within their communities. There is, indeed, an urgency today to have the banking industry consider its social impact in a holistic way. This paper expands our understanding of how these financial institutions, all members of the Global Alliance for Banking on Values, define, design, implement, monitor and scale-up social impact. We used a multiple-case studies design to investigate their approach and inductive analysis to derive a model. From a theoretical perspective, we found that a social impact virtuous circular model best reflects how values-based financial institutions approach and practise social impact. Each step of the circular model clearly shows the way in which these institutions address and achieve social impact. Our findings have important implications for academic research focussed on understanding how finance can generate social impact. The findings of this article can, especially, also have practical implications for all types of financial institutions willing to improve the way in which they address social challenges and, ultimately, increase their social impact. At a time when more resources are needed to meet the Sustainable Development Goals, this is urgent

Towards a regional science academy: A manifesto

This Manifesto provides a joint proposal to create a Regional Science Academy as a think-tank support platform for a strategic development of the spatial sciences. The Regional Science Academy is a strategic spatial knowledge catalyst: it acts as a global intellectual powerhouse for new knowledge network initiatives and scholarly views on regions and cities as vital centrepieces of interconnected spatial systems. This contribution highlights its role and presents various activity plans