Long-term impacts of tropical storms and earthquakes on human population growth in Haiti and the Dominican Republic

Since the 18th century, Haiti and the Dominican Republic have experienced similar natural forces, including earthquakes and tropical storms. These countries are two of the most prone of all Latin American and Caribbean countries to natural hazards events, while Haiti seems to be more vulnerable to natural forces. This article discusses to what extent geohazards have shaped both nation's demographic developments. The data show that neither atmospheric nor seismic forces that directly hit the territory of Haiti have significantly affected the country's population growth rates and spatial population densities. Conversely, since the 1950s more people were exposed to atmospheric hazards, in particular, in regions which historically experienced higher storm frequencies

Can Self-Organizing Maps accurately predict photometric redshifts?

We present an unsupervised machine learning approach that can be employed for estimating photometric redshifts. The proposed method is based on a vector quantization approach called Self--Organizing Mapping (SOM). A variety of photometrically derived input values were utilized from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey's Main Galaxy Sample, Luminous Red Galaxy, and Quasar samples along with the PHAT0 data set from the PHoto-z Accuracy Testing project. Regression results obtained with this new approach were evaluated in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) to estimate the accuracy of the photometric redshift estimates. The results demonstrate competitive RMSE and outlier percentages when compared with several other popular approaches such as Artificial Neural Networks and Gaussian Process Regression. SOM RMSE--results (using $\Delta$z=z$_{phot}$--z$_{spec}$) for the Main Galaxy Sample are 0.023, for the Luminous Red Galaxy sample 0.027, Quasars are 0.418, and PHAT0 synthetic data are 0.022. The results demonstrate that there are non--unique solutions for estimating SOM RMSEs. Further research is needed in order to find more robust estimation techniques using SOMs, but the results herein are a positive indication of their capabilities when compared with other well-known methods.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, submitted to PAS

The prompt optical/near-infrared flare of GRB 050904: the most luminous transient ever detected

With a redshift of z=6.295, GRB 050904 is the most distant gamma-ray burst ever discovered. It was an energetic event at all wavelengths and the afterglow was observed in detail in the near-infrared bands. We gathered all available optical and NIR afterglow photometry of this GRB to construct a composite NIR light curve spanning several decades in time and flux density. Transforming the NIR light curve into the optical, we find that the afterglow of GRB 050904 was more luminous at early times than any other GRB afterglow in the pre-\emph{Swift} era, making it at these wavelengths the most luminous transient ever detected. Given the intrinsic properties of GRB 050904 and its afterglow, we discuss if this burst is markedly different from other GRBs at lower redshifts.Comment: The Astronomical Journal, in press; revised version, including the comments of the referee (one figure added, text restructured, all conclusions unchanged), 7 pages, 3 figure

A Systematic Analysis of Supernova Light in Gamma-Ray Burst Afterglows

We systematically reanalyzed all Gamma-Ray Burst (GRB) afterglow data published through the end of 2002, in an attempt to detect the predicted supernova light component and to gain statistical insight on its phenomenological properties. We fit the observed photometric light curves as the sum of an afterglow, an underlying host galaxy, and a supernova component. The latter is modeled using published multi-color light curves of SN 1998bw as a template. The total sample of afterglows with established redshifts contains 21 bursts (GRB 970228 - GRB 021211). For nine of these GRBs a weak supernova excess (scaled to SN 1998bw) was found, what makes this to one of the first samples of high-z core collapse supernovae. Among this sample are all bursts with redshifts less than ~0.7. These results strongly support the notion that in fact all afterglows of long-duration GRBs contain light from an associated supernova. A statistics of the physical parameters of these GRB-supernovae shows that SN 1998bw was at the bright end of its class, while it was not special with respect to its light curve shape. Finally, we have searched for a potential correlation of the supernova luminosities with the properties of the corresponding bursts and optical afterglows, but we have not found such a relation.Comment: 25 pages, 7 figures, accepted by ApJ; revised, shortened and updated compared to version 1; Title slightly changed; all figures showing individual afterglow light curves removed, as advised by the referee; conclusions unchange

On Dust Extinction of Gamma-ray Burst Host Galaxies

Although it is well recognized that gamma-ray burst (GRB) afterglows are obscured and reddened by dust in their host galaxies, the wavelength-dependence and quantity of dust extinction are still poorly known. Current studies on this mostly rely on fitting the afterglow spectral energy distributions (SEDs) with template extinction models. The inferred extinction (both quantity and wavelength-dependence) and dust-to-gas ratios are often in disagreement with that obtained from dust depletion and X-ray spectroscopy studies. We argue that this discrepancy could result from the prior assumption of a template extinction law. We propose an analytical formula to approximate the GRB host extinction law. With the template extinction laws self-contained, and the capability of revealing extinction laws differing from the conventional ones, it is shown that this is a powerful approach in modeling the afterglow SEDs to derive GRB host extinction.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures; The Astrophysical Journal, in press (2008 Oct 1 issue

GRB afterglow light curves in the pre-Swift era - a statistical study

We present the results of a systematic analysis of the world sample of optical/near-infrared afterglow light curves observed in the pre-Swift era by the end of 2004. After selecting the best observed 16 afterglows with well-sampled light curves that can be described by a Beuermann equation, we explore the parameter space of the light curve parameters and physical quantities related to them. In addition, we search for correlations between these parameters and the corresponding gamma-ray data, and we use our data set to look for a fine structure in the light curves.Comment: accepted for publication in ApJ; Version 2: minor changes, one figure adde

Contrasting effects of an invasive crayfish (Procambarus clarkii) on two temperate stream communities

The effects of omnivorous exotic species on native communities are often difficult to predict because of the broad diets and behavioural flexibility of the omnivore, and the diverse abiotic and biotic characteristics of invaded systems. We investigated experimentally the effects of a gradient of density of the introduced, omnivorous red swamp crayfish Procambarus clarkii (Decapoda: Cambaridae) on two stream communities in southern California, U.S.A. The Ventura River is a clear, flowing stream with a cobble substratum, with abundant algae but low densities of large invertebrates, small herbivores and snails. The Santa Ynez River at the time of the study consisted of a series of drying pools underlain by sand, with abundant charophytes, large predatory invertebrates and herbivores, including snails. In the Ventura River, periphyton biomass and inorganic sediment decreased with increasing crayfish abundance, but in the Santa Ynez River, periphyton and sediment were unrelated to crayfish densities. In the Ventura River, the biomass and density of all benthic invertebrates combined, chironomids, micropredators, the meiofauna (chydorid cladocerans, copepods and ostracods), and specific predatory and herbivorous taxa, as well as taxon richness, were negatively related to crayfish density. In the Santa Ynez River, the biomass and average body size of benthic invertebrates, predatory invertebrates, herbivores and chironomids, but not total invertebrate density or taxon richness, were negatively related to crayfish density. Fewer large predatory invertebrates and snails (Physella gyrina) in both streams, and baetid mayflies in the Ventura River, were visible at night in channels where crayfish were abundant. Snails responded to crayfish by moving above the water line in the Santa Ynez River, but not in the Ventura River. We suggest that the same omnivore had different effects on these neighbouring streams because of crayfish predation on large invertebrates in the Santa Ynez River and the scarcity of such prey in the Ventura River, leading to increased crayfish grazing on periphyton, and reductions in periphyton-associated invertebrates, in the Ventura River. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Complex impacts of an invasive omnivore and native consumers on stream communities in California and Hawaii

The effects of invasive species on native communities often depend on the characteristics of the recipient community and on the food habits of the invasive species, becoming complicated when the invader is omnivorous. In field enclosure experiments, we assessed the direct and interactive effects of an invasive omnivorous crayfish (Procambarus clarkii) and either native herbivorous snails (Physella gyrina) or shrimp (Atyoida bisulcata) on stream communities in California and Hawaii, respectively. Based on literature data and the characteristics of each study site, we predicted that crayfish would affect primarily algal-based trophic linkages in an open California stream but detritus-based trophic linkages in a shaded Hawaiian stream, with trophic cascades mediated through crayfish effects on primary consumers being observed in both systems. As predicted, crayfish in California directly reduced periphyton, filamentous algae, sediment, and snail levels, but generated a cascade by decreasing snail densities and increasing periphyton biomass. Contrary to prediction, crayfish did not reduce total invertebrate biomass. As predicted, crayfish in Hawaii reduced leaf litter, filamentous algae, and benthic invertebrate biomass. Contrary to our predictions, however, a trophic cascade was not observed because shrimp did not affect periphyton levels, crayfish did not reduce shrimp abundance, and crayfish had greater negative impacts on filamentous algae than did shrimp. Our findings highlight that the same invasive species can generate different effects on disparate systems, probably as mediated through the availability of different food types, flexibility in the invasive species' food habits, and complex pathways of trophic interaction