Battle at bond bluff: forecasters vs. financial markets

Bonds ; Financial markets

Is the Fed’s definition of price stability evolving?

The FOMC’s “mandate-consistent inflation rate” is generally judged to be “about 2 percent or a bit below.”Inflation (Finance) ; Monetary policy

Gauging the size of today's price shocks

Prices ; Inflation (Finance)

Rising natural gas prices and real economic activity

In the aftermath of the disruptions caused by hurricanes Katrina and Rita, natural gas prices rose to record-high levels. Because natural gas is an important energy source for the U.S. economy, there was widespread concern that these high prices might cause a significant slowing in the economy - especially among those manufacturing industries that heavily consume natural gas. The analysis presented in this article suggests that output is responsive to natural gas prices in some manufacturing sectors. Although perhaps significant, this result must be balanced against the finding that, when the analysis is extended to the macroeconomy (real gross domestic product growth), increases in crude oil prices significantly predict real gross domestic product growth, but natural gas prices do not.Gasoline - Prices ; Economic conditions

Triple whammy fuels economic doubts

Economic conditions - United States ; Gas industry

The 2001 recession: how was it different and what developments may have caused it?

The 2001 recession was unique in several respects. For instance, the peak-to-trough decline in real gross domestic product was one of the smallest on record and its duration was slightly shorter than average. This article examines some of the other unique features of the 2001 recession compared with the “average” post-World War II recession. The author also shows that forecasters were surprised by the onset of the recession, perhaps because of incomplete data available to them in real time. Finally, the article examines the errors from a well-known macroeconomic forecast and finds that forecasters were surprised by the declines in real business and household fixed investment, as well as real net exports, before the March 2001 business cycle peak.Recessions ; Economic indicators ; Business cycles

Recession or depression? part II

The economic performance during the current recession is sharply different from the 1929-33 episode in most key respects, but not in all...Recessions ; Depressions

Dating the end of the recession: evaluating the economic indicators

Economists focus on certain indicators that might signal when one business expansion ends and the next one begins.Economic indicators ; Recessions

The storm clouds begin to depart

Economic indicators

Recession or depression?

"Although the current recession may.. be the longest in the postwar period, it is by no means certain that it will be the deepest, but it's increasingly looking that way."Recessions