Nonresponse and Focal Point Answers to Subjective Probability Questions

We develop and estimate a panel data model explaining the answers to questions about subjective probabilities, using data from the US Health and Retirement Study. We explicitly account for nonresponse, rounding, and focal point “50 percent” answers. Our results indicate that for three of the four questions considered, almost all 50 percent answers can be explained by rounding. We also find observed and unobserved heterogeneity in the tendencies to report rounded values or a focal answer, explaining persistency in 50 percent-answers over time. Incorporating rounding and focal answers changes some of the conclusions about the socio-economic factors that determine expectations.item nonresponse, rounding, expectations

The Effect of an Acute Health Shock on Work Behavior: Evidence from Different Health Care Regimes

We study how severe acute health shocks affect the probability of not working in the U. S. versus in Denmark. The results not only provide insight into how relative disease risk affects labor force participation at older ages, but also into how different types of health care and health insurance systems affect individual decisions of labor force participation. We find that the effect of an acute health shock on labor force participation is stronger in the U.S. than in Denmark, and provide compelling evidence that this is the result of health care system-related differential mortality and baseline health differences.health shock, health care regimes, work

DO GENDER DIFFERENCES IN PREFERENCES FOR COMPETITION MATTER FOR OCCUPATIONAL EXPECTATIONS? 1

Occupational segregation by gender is prevalent and explains some of the gender gap in wages. I empirically investigate a possible explanation for segregation: the gender difference in preferences for competition. I find that women’s greater distaste for competition decreases educational achievement. It can also explain part of the choice of occupational field. Specifically, accounting for distaste for competition reduces gender segregation in less segregated fields but not in fields where the vast majority of workers is either female or male. This might be related to the relative importance of choosing an occupation with the correct sex type

Family background and gender differences in educational expectations

Socioeconomic outcomes of parents and their children are more correlated for sons than for daughters. This paper presents empirical evidence from Denmark that these gender differences result from different transmission mechanisms by separating the effects of parental education and income.Educational expectations Intergenerational correlation Gender differences Socioeconomic background

The link between individual expectations and savings: Do nursing home expectations matter? Iniversity of Aarhus. Denmark. Working Paper No

Abstract Long-term care is an important issue facing older Americans. Those who reach age 65 have a 40% chance of entering a nursing home, and about 10% of those who enter will stay there for at least five years. The costs of a stay are high with on average US$70,000 annually for a private room. Long-term stays in nursing homes are, therefore, not likely, but very expensive. In this paper, we examine individual expectations about future nursing home entry and study the relationship between these expectations and savings behavior, using data from the Health and Retirement Study. We find a clear relation between subjective expectations and probability of future nursing home entry, but no effect of these expectations on savings behavior for the majority of individuals. Only those with small positive non-housing wealth, which lies under the threshold for Medicaid eligibility, increase their savings rate in response to an increase in expectations. A plausible explanation for this might be that there is only little dissaving in order to qualify for Medicaid and that the fact that most respondents are old and live off a fixed income which makes it difficult for them to increase their savings enough to make a difference

The link between individual expectations and savings: Do nursing home expectations matter? Iniversity of Aarhus. Denmark. Working Paper No

Abstract Long-term care is an important issue facing older Americans. Those who reach age 65 have a 40% chance of entering a nursing home, and about 10% of those who enter will stay there for at least five years. The costs of a stay are high with on average US$70,000 annually for a private room. Long-term stays in nursing homes are, therefore, not likely, but very expensive. In this paper, we examine individual expectations about future nursing home entry and study the relationship between these expectations and savings behavior, using data from the Health and Retirement Study. We find a clear relation between subjective expectations and probability of future nursing home entry, but no effect of these expectations on savings behavior for the majority of individuals. Only those with small positive non-housing wealth, which lies under the threshold for Medicaid eligibility, increase their savings rate in response to an increase in expectations. A plausible explanation for this might be that there is only little dissaving in order to qualify for Medicaid and that the fact that most respondents are old and live off a fixed income which makes it difficult for them to increase their savings enough to make a difference