On preparing for the great gift of community that climate disasters can give us

There is a widespread (if rarely voiced) assumption, among those who dare to understand the future which climate chaos is likely to yield, that civility will give way and a Hobbesian war of all against all will be unleashed. Thankfully, this assumption is highly questionable. The field of ‘Disaster Studies’, as shown in Rebecca Solnit’s A Paradise Built in Hell, makes clear that it is at least as likely that, tested in the crucible of back-to-back disasters, humanity will rise to the challenge, and we will find ourselves manifesting a truer humanity than we currently think ourselves to have. Thus the post-sustainability world will offer us a tremendous gift amidst the carnage. But how well we realise this gift depends on our preparing the way for it. In order to prepare, the fantasy of sustainable development needs to be jettisoned, along with the bargain-making mentality underpinning it. Instead, the inter-personal virtues of generosity, fraternity and care-taking need fostering. One role a philosophically informed deep reframing can play in this process of virtuous preparation for disaster is in helping people to understand that, in order to care for their children, they need to care for their children in turn, and so on, ad infinitum

Development of a risk adjustment mortality model using the American College of Cardiology–National Cardiovascular Data Registry (ACC–NCDR) experience: 1998–2000

AbstractObjectivesWe sought to develop and evaluate a risk adjustment model for in-hospital mortality following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) procedures using data from a large, multi-center registry.BackgroundThe 1998–2000 American College of Cardiology–National Cardiovascular Data Registry (ACC–NCDR) dataset was used to overcome limitations of prior risk-adjustment analyses.MethodsData on 100,253 PCI procedures collected at the ACC–NCDR between January 1, 1998, and September 30, 2000, were analyzed. A training set/test set approach was used. Separate models were developed for presentation with and without acute myocardial infarction (MI) within 24 h.ResultsFactors associated with increased risk of PCI mortality (with odds ratios in parentheses) included cardiogenic shock (8.49), increasing age (2.61 to 11.25), salvage (13.38) urgent (1.78) or emergent PCI (5.75), pre-procedure intra-aortic balloon pump insertion (1.68), decreasing left ventricular ejection fraction (0.87 to 3.93), presentation with acute MI (1.31), diabetes (1.41), renal failure (3.04), chronic lung disease (1.33); treatment approaches including thrombolytic therapy (1.39) and non-stent devices (1.64); and lesion characteristics including left main (2.04), proximal left anterior descending disease (1.97) and Society for Cardiac Angiography and Interventions lesion classification (1.64 to 2.11). Overall, excellent discrimination was achieved (C-index = 0.89) and application of the model to high-risk patient groups demonstrated C-indexes exceeding 0.80. Patient factors were more predictive in the MI model, while lesion and procedural factors were more predictive in the analysis of non-MI patients.ConclusionsA risk adjustment model for in-hospital mortality after PCI was successfully developed using a contemporary multi-center registry. This model is an important tool for valid comparison of in-hospital mortality after PCI

Multiplicativity of completely bounded p-norms implies a new additivity result

We prove additivity of the minimal conditional entropy associated with a quantum channel Phi, represented by a completely positive (CP), trace-preserving map, when the infimum of S(gamma_{12}) - S(gamma_1) is restricted to states of the form gamma_{12} = (I \ot Phi)(| psi >< psi |). We show that this follows from multiplicativity of the completely bounded norm of Phi considered as a map from L_1 -> L_p for L_p spaces defined by the Schatten p-norm on matrices; we also give an independent proof based on entropy inequalities. Several related multiplicativity results are discussed and proved. In particular, we show that both the usual L_1 -> L_p norm of a CP map and the corresponding completely bounded norm are achieved for positive semi-definite matrices. Physical interpretations are considered, and a new proof of strong subadditivity is presented.Comment: Final version for Commun. Math. Physics. Section 5.2 of previous version deleted in view of the results in quant-ph/0601071 Other changes mino

Neo-Aristotelian Naturalism and the Evolutionary Objection: Rethinking the Relevance of Empirical Science

Neo-Aristotelian metaethical naturalism is a modern attempt at naturalizing ethics using ideas from Aristotle’s teleological metaphysics. Proponents of this view argue that moral virtue in human beings is an instance of natural goodness, a kind of goodness supposedly also found in the realm of non-human living things. Many critics question whether neo-Aristotelian naturalism is tenable in light of modern evolutionary biology. Two influential lines of objection have appealed to an evolutionary understanding of human nature and natural teleology to argue against this view. In this paper, I offer a reconstruction of these two seemingly different lines of objection as raising instances of the same dilemma, giving neo-Aristotelians a choice between contradicting our considered moral judgment and abandoning metaethical naturalism. I argue that resolving the dilemma requires showing a particular kind of continuity between the norms of moral virtue and norms that are necessary for understanding non-human living things. I also argue that in order to show such a continuity, neo-Aristotelians need to revise the relationship they adopt with empirical science and acknowledge that the latter is relevant to assessing their central commitments regarding living things. Finally, I argue that to move this debate forward, both neo-Aristotelians and their critics should pay attention to recent work on the concept of organism in evolutionary and developmental biology

Seismicity and Pn Velocity Structure of Central West Antarctica

We have located 117 previously undetected seismic events mainly occurring between 2015 and 2017 that originated from glacial, tectonic, and volcanic processes in central West Antarctica using data recorded on Polar Earth Observing Network (POLENET/ANET) and UK Antarctic Network (UKANET) seismic stations. The seismic events, with local magnitudes (ML) ranging from 1.1 to 3.5, are predominantly clustered in four geographic regions; the Ellsworth Mountains, Thwaites Glacier, Pine Island Glacier, and Mount Takahe. Eighteen of the events are in the Ellsworth Mountains and can be attributed to a mixture of glacial and tectonic processes. The largest event noted in this study was a mid‐crustal (∼19 km focal depth; ML 3.5) normal mechanism earthquake beneath Thwaites Glacier. We also located 91 glacial events near the grounding zones of Thwaites Glacier and Pine Island Glacier that are predominantly associated with time periods of significant calving activity. Eight events, likely arising from volcano‐tectonic processes, occurred beneath Mount Takahe. Using Pn travel times from the seismic events, we find laterally variable uppermost mantle structure in central West Antarctica. On average, the Ellsworth Mountains are underlain by a faster mantle lid (VPn = ∼8.4 km/s) compared to the Amundsen Sea Embayment region (VPn = ∼8.1 km/s). Within the Amundsen Sea Embayment itself, we find mantle lid velocities ranging from ∼8.05 to 8.18 km/s. Laterally heterogeneous uppermost mantle structure, indicative of variable thermal and rheological structure, likely influences both geothermal heat flux and glacial isostatic adjustment spatial patterns and rates within central West Antarctica

Quantum chaos, random matrix theory, and statistical mechanics in two dimensions - a unified approach

We present a theory where the statistical mechanics for dilute ideal gases can be derived from random matrix approach. We show the connection of this approach with Srednicki approach which connects Berry conjecture with statistical mechanics. We further establish a link between Berry conjecture and random matrix theory, thus providing a unified edifice for quantum chaos, random matrix theory, and statistical mechanics. In the course of arguing for these connections, we observe sum rules associated with the outstanding counting problem in the theory of braid groups. We are able to show that the presented approach leads to the second law of thermodynamics.Comment: 23 pages, TeX typ

WARNING: Physics Envy May Be Hazardous To Your Wealth!

The quantitative aspirations of economists and financial analysts have for many years been based on the belief that it should be possible to build models of economic systems - and financial markets in particular - that are as predictive as those in physics. While this perspective has led to a number of important breakthroughs in economics, "physics envy" has also created a false sense of mathematical precision in some cases. We speculate on the origins of physics envy, and then describe an alternate perspective of economic behavior based on a new taxonomy of uncertainty. We illustrate the relevance of this taxonomy with two concrete examples: the classical harmonic oscillator with some new twists that make physics look more like economics, and a quantitative equity market-neutral strategy. We conclude by offering a new interpretation of tail events, proposing an "uncertainty checklist" with which our taxonomy can be implemented, and considering the role that quants played in the current financial crisis.Comment: v3 adds 2 reference

Risk Prediction of Coronary Heart Disease Based on Retinal Vascular Caliber (from the Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities [ARIC] Study)

Recent studies show that retinal vascular signs such as quantitative retinal vascular caliber are associated with an increased risk of incident coronary heart disease (CHD), but whether these retinal vascular signs add to the prediction of CHD over and above traditional CHD risk factors has not been addressed. We investigated whether these signs add to the prediction of CHD over and above the Framingham risk score amongst people (n=9,155) without diabetes selected from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. Incident CHD was ascertained using standardized methods and retinal vascular caliber and other retinal signs were measured from retinal photographs. After a mean of 8.8 years of follow up, there were 700 incident CHD events. Women with wider retinal venular caliber (hazard ratio 1.27 per 1 standard deviation increase [95% confidence interval, 1.08, 1.50]) and narrower retinal arteriolar caliber (1.31 per 1 standard deviation decrease [1.10, 1.56]) had a higher risk of incident CHD after adjusting for the Framingham risk score variables. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve increased from 0.695 to 0.706 (1.7% increase) with the addition of retinal vascular caliber to the Framingham risk model. The risk prediction models with and without the retinal vascular caliber both fitted the data and were well calibrated for women. In men, retinal vascular caliber was not associated with CHD risk after adjustment. Other retinal vascular signs were not associated with 10-year incident CHD in men or women. In conclusion, although retinal vascular caliber independently predicts CHD risk in women, the incremental predictive ability over that of the Framingham model is modest, and unlikely to translate meaningfully into clinical practice