A Typology of Transition Patterns Involving Long-Term NEET Episodes: Accumulation of Risk and Adversity

This paper uses Danish population-based administrative registers to study contemporary school-to-work transitions among young adults who experience long-term NEET episodes between age 16 and 20. By applying sequence analysis and clustering, this paper identifies five distinct transition patterns. Using this typology as the outcome variable in multinomial regression the paper offers insight into how experiences and circumstances, developing until age 16, can affect the subsequently unfolding transition process. Finally, the paper looks ahead and describes whether transitional difficulty accumulates into early adulthood. While one transition pattern stands out as more stable and less worrying, three of the remaining four demonstrate how transitional difficulty between age 16 and 20 develops as precarious patterns of attachment to well-established systems within the Danish welfare state. It is further established that various childhood risk factors significantly increase the odds of experiencing precarious transition patterns. Finally, the analyses demonstrate how instability and risk during childhood and school-to-work transition extend into early adulthood for a large part of the study population

Incentive effects of cash benefit among low-skilled young adults: Applying a regression discontinuity design.

In 2014, the Danish Government implemented an active labour market reform directed at unemployed young adults under 30 years of age with low educational qualifications. The reform replaced the (unemployment) cash benefits with a lower education benefit for many of the unemployed aged under 30 and obliged the low-skilled in this group to enrol in a regular general or vocational (VET) education program. This paper exploits the sharp discontinuity that occurs at age 30 to estimate the joint effect of higher benefits and the cessation of educational obligations on the share receiving cash benefits and the share enrolled in education. We estimate the effects by applying a regression discontinuity design. We report results for the group of low educated young adults and for subgroups facing different economic incentives. The results establish that reaching age 30 creates an incentive to apply for cash benefits, and we find strong evidence that a significant increase in the share of cash benefit recipients relates to a corresponding reduction in the share of young adults enrolled in education. When including subgroups the size of the effect increases, and the results demonstrate that the effects are strongest among previous education benefit recipients. This indicates that the results are mainly driven mainly by individuals reverting to cash benefits