Updated Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of the Performance of Risk Prediction Rules in Children and Young People with Febrile Neutropenia

Introduction: Febrile neutropenia is a common and potentially life-threatening complication of treatment for childhood cancer, which has increasingly been subject to targeted treatment based on clinical risk stratification. Our previous meta-analysis demonstrated 16 rules had been described and 2 of them subject to validation in more than one study. We aimed to advance our knowledge of evidence on the discriminatory ability and predictive accuracy of such risk stratification clinical decision rules (CDR) for children and young people with cancer by updating our systematic review. Methods: The review was conducted in accordance with Centre for Reviews and Dissemination methods, searching multiple electronic databases, using two independent reviewers, formal critical appraisal with QUADAS and meta-analysis with random effects models where appropriate. It was registered with PROSPERO: CRD42011001685. Results: We found 9 new publications describing a further 7 new CDR, and validations of 7 rules. Six CDR have now been subject to testing across more than two data sets. Most validations demonstrated the rule to be less efficient than when initially proposed; geographical differences appeared to be one explanation for this. Conclusion: The use of clinical decision rules will require local validation before widespread use. Considerable uncertainty remains over the most effective rule to use in each population, and an ongoing individual-patient-data meta-analysis should develop and test a more reliable CDR to improve stratification and optimise therapy. Despite current challenges, we believe it will be possible to define an internationally effective CDR to harmonise the treatment of children with febrile neutropenia

Insights into the migration of the European Roller from ring recoveries

AbstractDespite recent advances in avian tracking technology, archival devices still present several limitations. Traditional ring recoveries provide a complementary method for studying migratory movements, particularly for cohorts of birds with a low return rate to the breeding site. Here we provide the first international analysis of ring recovery data in the European Roller Coracias garrulus, a long-distance migrant of conservation concern. Our data comprise 58 records of Rollers ringed during the breeding season and recovered during the non-breeding season. Most records come from Eastern Europe, half are of juveniles and over three quarters are of dead birds. Thus, ring recoveries provide migration data for cohorts of Rollers—juveniles and unsuccessful migrants—for which no information currently exists, complementing recent tracking studies. Qualitatively, our results are consistent with direct tracking studies, illustrating a broad-front migration across the Mediterranean Basin in autumn and the use of the Arabian Peninsula by Rollers from eastern populations in spring. Autumn movements were, on average, in a more southerly direction for juveniles than adults, which were more easterly. Juvenile autumn recovery direction also appeared to be more variable than in adults, though this difference was not statistically significant. This is consistent with juveniles following a naïve vector-based orientation program, and perhaps explains the ‘moderate’ migratory connectivity previously described for the Roller. In the first (qualitative) analysis of Roller non-breeding season mortality, we highlight the high prevalence of shooting. The recovery age ratio was juvenile-biased in autumn but adult-biased in spring. Although not statistically significant, this difference points towards a higher non-breeding season mortality of juveniles than adults. Our study demonstrates the complementarity of ring recoveries to direct tracking, providing an insight into the migration of juvenile Rollers and non-breeding season mortality

Predicting Infectious ComplicatioNs in Children with Cancer : an external validation study

Background:The aim of this study was to validate the 'Predicting Infectious ComplicatioNs in Children with Cancer' (PICNICC) clinical decision rule (CDR) that predicts microbiologically documented infection (MDI) in children with cancer and fever and neutropenia (FN). We also investigated costs associated with current FN management strategies in Australia.Methods:Demographic, episode, outcome and cost data were retrospectively collected on 650 episodes of FN. We assessed the discrimination, calibration, sensitivity and specificity of the PICNICC CDR in our cohort compared with the derivation data set.Results:Using the original variable coefficients, the CDR performed poorly. After recalibration the PICNICC CDR had an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC-ROC) curve of 0.638 (95% CI 0.590-0.685) and calibration slope of 0.24. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the PICNICC CDR at presentation was 78.4%, 39.8%, 28.6% and 85.7%, respectively. For bacteraemia, the sensitivity improved to 85.2% and AUC-ROC to 0.71. Application at day 2, taking into consideration the proportion of MDI known (43%), further improved the sensitivity to 87.7%. Length of stay is the main contributor to cost of FN treatment, with an average cost per day of AUD 2183 in the low-risk group.Conclusions:For prediction of any MDI, the PICNICC rule did not perform as well at presentation in our cohort as compared with the derivation study. However, for bacteraemia, the predictive ability was similar to that of the derivation study, highlighting the importance of recalibration using local data. Performance also improved after an overnight period of observation. Implementation of a low-risk pathway, using the PICNICC CDR after a short period of inpatient observation, is likely to be safe and has the potential to reduce health-care expenditure

Predicting infectious complications in neutropenic children and young people with cancer (IPD protocol)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A common and potentially life-threatening complication of the treatment of childhood cancer is infection, which frequently presents as fever with neutropenia. The standard management of such episodes is the extensive use of intravenous antibiotics, and though it produces excellent survival rates of over 95%, it greatly inconveniences the three-fourths of patients who do not require such aggressive treatment. There have been a number of studies which have aimed to develop risk prediction models to stratify treatment. Individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis in therapeutic studies has been developed to improve the precision and reliability of answers to questions of treatment effect and recently have been suggested to be used to answer questions regarding prognosis and diagnosis to gain greater power from the frequently small individual studies.</p> <p>Design</p> <p>In the IPD protocol, we will collect and synthesise IPD from multiple studies and examine the outcomes of episodes of febrile neutropenia as a consequence of their treatment for malignant disease. We will develop and evaluate a risk stratification model using hierarchical regression models to stratify patients by their risk of experiencing adverse outcomes during an episode. We will also explore specific practical and methodological issues regarding adaptation of established techniques of IPD meta-analysis of interventions for use in synthesising evidence derived from IPD from multiple studies for use in predictive modelling contexts.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Our aim in using this model is to define a group of individuals at low risk for febrile neutropenia who might be treated with reduced intensity or duration of antibiotic therapy and so reduce the inconvenience and cost of these episodes, as well as to define a group of patients at very high risk of complications who could be subject to more intensive therapies. The project will also help develop methods of IPD predictive modelling for use in future studies of risk prediction.</p

CD34 marks angiogenic tip cells in human vascular endothelial cell cultures

The functional shift of quiescent endothelial cells into tip cells that migrate and stalk cells that proliferate is a key event during sprouting angiogenesis. We previously showed that the sialomucin CD34 is expressed in a small subset of cultured endothelial cells and that these cells extend filopodia: a hallmark of tip cells in vivo. In the present study, we characterized endothelial cells expressing CD34 in endothelial monolayers in vitro. We found that CD34-positive human umbilical vein endothelial cells show low proliferation activity and increased mRNA expression of all known tip cell markers, as compared to CD34-negative cells. Genome-wide mRNA profiling analysis of CD34-positive endothelial cells demonstrated enrichment for biological functions related to angiogenesis and migration, whereas CD34-negative cells were enriched for functions related to proliferation. In addition, we found an increase or decrease of CD34-positive cells in vitro upon exposure to stimuli that enhance or limit the number of tip cells in vivo, respectively. Our findings suggest cells with virtually all known properties of tip cells are present in vascular endothelial cell cultures and that they can be isolated based on expression of CD34. This novel strategy may open alternative avenues for future studies of molecular processes and functions in tip cells in angiogenesis

The diagnostic value of CRP, IL-8, PCT, and sTREM-1 in the detection of bacterial infections in pediatric oncology patients with febrile neutropenia

In this study, we evaluated C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin (IL)-8, procalcitonin (PCT), and soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells-1 (sTREM-1) as predictors for bacterial infection in febrile neutropenia, plus their usefulness in febrile neutropenia during chemotherapy-induced gastrointestinal mucositis. Plasma was obtained from pediatric oncology patients at presentation with febrile neutropenia (n = 43) and 24-48 h later (n = 17). The patients were classified as having or not having a bacterial infection. Plasma was also obtained of patients in the absence and in the presence of mucositis (n = 26). At presentation with febrile neutropenia, median IL-8 and PCT levels were significantly increased in patients with a bacterial infection, in contrast to CRP and sTREM-1. IL-8 was the most sensitive marker for the early detection of bacterial infection, in combination with clinical parameters or PCT the sensitivity reached 100%. After 24-48 h, only PCT was significantly elevated during bacterial infection. IL-8 levels were significantly increased during mucositis. Mucositis did not cause considerable changes in PCT levels. IL-8 is the most useful marker for the early detection of bacterial infections, compared with CRP, PCT, and sTREM-1. IL-8 in combination with clinical parameters or PCT might be even more useful. Gastrointestinal mucositis alone does not affect PCT levels, in contrast to IL-8 levels, and therefore, PCT might be more useful for the detection of bacterial infections during mucositis than IL-8

A bi-articular model for scapular-humeral rhythm reconstruction through data from wearable sensors

Patient-specific performance assessment of arm movements in daily life activities is fundamental for neurological rehabilitation therapy. In most applications, the shoulder movement is simplified through a socket-ball joint, neglecting the movement of the scapular-thoracic complex. This may lead to significant errors. We propose an innovative bi-articular model of the human shoulder for estimating the position of the hand in relation to the sternum. The model takes into account both the scapular-toracic and gleno-humeral movements and their ratio governed by the scapular-humeral rhythm, fusing the information of inertial and textile-based strain sensors

Comparison of CT and PET-CT based planning of radiation therapy in locally advanced pancreatic carcinoma

Abstract Background To compare computed tomography (CT) with co-registered positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET-CT) as the basis for delineating gross tumor volume (GTV) in unresectable, locally advanced pancreatic carcinoma (LAPC). Methods Fourteen patients with unresectable LAPC had both CT and PET images acquired. For each patient, two three-dimensional conformal plans were made using the CT and PET-CT fusion data sets. We analyzed differences in treatment plans and doses of radiation to primary tumors and critical organs. Results Changes in GTV delineation were necessary in 5 patients based on PET-CT information. In these patients, the average increase in GTV was 29.7%, due to the incorporation of additional lymph node metastases and extension of the primary tumor beyond that defined by CT. For all patients, the GTVCT versus GTVPET-CT was 92.5 ± 32.3 cm3 versus 104.5 ± 32.6 cm3 (p = 0.009). Toxicity analysis revealed no clinically significant differences between two plans with regard to doses to critical organs. Conclusion Co-registration of PET and CT information in unresectable LAPC may improve the delineation of GTV and theoretically reduce the likelihood of geographic misses.</p