Economic Effects of a Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement

This study presents an analysis of the bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) that is being negotiated between Korea and the United States. The bilateral FTA negotiations were notified to the U.S. Congress by the United States Trade Representative in February 2006, and formal negotiations began in May 2006.1 It is anticipated that the negotiations may be completed and the agreement signed before mid-2007, which is when the current U.S. presidential negotiating authority expires. Once signed, the implementing legislation can be introduced in the U.S. Congress at any time. In Chapter 1, we set out what appear to be the primary objectives of the United States and Korea in their pursuit of an FTA. In Chapter 2, we review the existing studies of a Korea-U.S. FTA that have been done to date. Chapter 3 is devoted to comparative static and dynamic analyses of the FTA. We first provide an overview of the features and benchmark data of the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade, which is the computational general equilibrium (CGE) modeling framework that we use to analyze the economic effects of a Korea-U.S. FTA. Thereafter, we present the comparative static modeling results for the bilateral removal of tariffs and other trade barriers for agricultural products, manufactures, services, and all of these combined. This is followed by presentation of results of some dynamic computational scenarios that are specially constructed to take into account possible changes in capital formation that may be generated by the Korea-U.S. FTA. We then draw together the main conclusions from the review of previous studies and our own computational work. In Chapter 4, we provide a broader perspective on a Korea-U.S. FTA that takes into account alternative negotiating options for the two nations. These options include computational analyses of the other FTAs that each nation has concluded in recent years and that are currently in process. We also calculate the potential effects of the unilateral removal of trade barriers by the United States and Korea and the effects of global free trade in which all countries or regions covered in the model are assumed to remove their existing trade barriers on a multilateral basis. In Chapter 5, we present conclusions and implications for further research and policy.Free trade, Korea (South), Commercial treaties

Issues in U.S.-ROK Economic Relations Issues in U.S.-ROK Economic Relations

This paper builds on the analysis of Kiyota and Stern (2007) of the economic effects of a KoreaU.S. free trade agreement (KORUSFTA). We review the objectives and main features of the KORUSFTA as perceived prior to the negotiation of the agreement and then outline the main features of the actual KORUSFTA that was concluded at the end of June 2007 and is now awaiting legislative approval by the authorities in both nations. We summarize the results of a modeling study by the USITC (2007) that is based on the changes in bilateral tariffs and tariff rate quotas (TRQs) that were actually negotiated in the KORUSFTA. We also present for comparative purposes our earlier results from Kiyota and Stern (2007) that used the pre-negotiations data and some specially constructed estimates of services barriers. Finally, we presents some calculations of the effects of alternative negotiating options that may be considered especially if it turns out that the KORUSFTA is not approved by either or both Korea and the United States.

The Case for Financial Sector Liberalization in Ethiopia

This paper focuses on issues of financial sector liberalization in Ethiopia, with reference in particular to the Ethiopian banking sector. We identify two factors that may constrain Ethiopia’s financial development. One is the closed nature of the Ethiopian financial sector in which there are no foreign banks, a non-competitive market structure, and strong capital controls in place. The other is the dominant role of state-owned banks. Our observations suggest that the Ethiopian economy would benefit from financial sector liberalization, especially from the entry of foreign banks and the associated privatization of state-owned banks.foreign banks, state-owned banks, financial sector liberalization, Africa, Ethiopia

Computational Analysis of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA)

We use the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to assess the economic effects of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) that is currently being negotiated among the 34 countries in the region. The model covers 18 economic sectors in each of 22 countries/regions and is based on Version 5.4 of the GTAP database for 1997 together with specially constructed estimates of services barriers and other data on sectoral employment and numbers of firms. The distinguishing feature of the model is that it incorporates some aspects of trade with imperfect competition in the manufacturing and services sectors, including monopolistic competition, increasing returns, and product variety. The modeling focus is on the effects of the bilateral removal of tariffs on agriculture and manufactures and services barriers. Rules of origin and other restrictive measures and the non-trade aspects of the FTAA are not taken into account due to data constraints. The computational results indicate that the FTAA would increase the economic welfare of the FTAA member countries by $118.8 billion, with the largest increases accruing to the United States,$67.6 billion, and to South America, $31.0 billion. The FTAA is trade diverting for most of the rest-of-world, with a welfare reduction of$9.3 billion. In comparison, if the FTAA countries were to adopt unilateral free trade, total FTAA member welfare would increase by $476.8 billion and global welfare by$812.7 billion. If multilateral free trade were adopted by all countries/regions in the global trading system, the welfare effects would be considerably larger, $751.2 billion for the FTAA members and$2.7 trillion globally.Trade liberalization, Globalization

Computational Analysis of the U.S FTAs with Central America, Australia, And Morocco

We use the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to assess the economic effects of the U.S. bilateral FTAs negotiated with Central America, Australia, and Morocco. The model covers 18 economic sectors in each of 22 countries/regions and is based on Version 5.4 of the GTAP database for 1997 together with specially constructed estimates of services barriers and other data on sectoral employment and numbers of firms. The distinguishing feature of the model is that it incorporates monopolistic competition in the manufacturing and services sectors, including increasing returns and product variety. The modeling focus is on the effects of the bilateral removal of tariffs on agriculture and manufactures and services barriers. Rules of origin and other restrictive measures and the non-trade aspects of the FTAs are not taken into account due to data constraints. The computational results indicate that the benefits of bilateral FTAs for the United States and partner countries are rather small in both absolute and relative terms, and that far greater benefits could be realized if the United States and its FTA partners adopted unilateral free trade and especially if multilateral free trade was adopted by all countries/regions in the global trading system.Free Trade Agreements, Unilateral Liberalization, Multilateral Liberalization

Computational Analysis of the U.S FTA with the Southern African Customs Union (SACU)

We use the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to assess the economic effects of the U.S. FTA being negotiated with the Southern African Customs Union (SACU). The model covers 18 economic sectors in each of 22 countries/regions and is based on Version 5.4 of the GTAP database for 1997 together with specially constructed estimates of services barriers and other data on sectoral employment and numbers of firms. The distinguishing feature of the model is that it incorporates monopolistic competition in the manufacturing and services sectors, including increasing returns and product variety. The modeling focus is on the effects of the bilateral removal of tariffs on agriculture and manufactures and services barriers. Rules of origin and other restrictive measures and the non-trade aspects of the U.S.-SACU FTA are not taken into account due to data constraints. The computational results indicate that the benefits of the bilateral FTA for the United States and the SACU are rather small in both absolute and relative terms. Far greater benefits could be realized if the United States and the SACU adopted unilateral free trade and especially if multilateral free trade was adopted by all countries/regions in the global trading system.

Computational Analysis of the Menu of U.S.-Japan Trade Policies

We have used the Michigan Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model of World Production and Trade to calculate the aggregate welfare and sectoral employment effects of the menu of U.S.-Japan trade policies. The menu of policies encompasses the various preferential U.S. and Japan bilateral and regional free trade agreements (FTAs) negotiated and in process, unilateral removal of existing trade barriers by the two countries, and global (multilateral) free trade. The U.S. preferential agreements include the FTAs approved by the U.S. Congress with Chile and Singapore in 2003, those signed with Central America, Australia, and Morocco and awaiting Congressional approval in 2004, and prospective FTAs with the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), Thailand, and the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). The Japanese preferential agreements include the bilateral FTA with Singapore signed in 2002 and prospective FTAs with Chile, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, and Thailand. The welfare impacts of the FTAs on the United States and Japan are shown to be rather small in absolute and relative terms. The sectoral employment effects are also generally small in the United States and Japan, but vary across the individual sectors depending on the patterns of the bilateral liberalization. The welfare effects on the FTA partner countries are mostly positive though generally small, but there are some indications of potentially disruptive employment shifts in some partner countries. There are indications of trade diversion and detrimental welfare effects on nonmember countries for some of the FTAs analyzed. Data limitations precluded analysis of the welfare effects of the different FTA rules of origin and other discriminatory arrangements. In comparison to the welfare gains from the U.S. and Japan bilateral FTAs, the gains from both unilateral trade liberalization by the United States, Japan, and the FTA partners, and from global (multilateral) free trade are shown to be rather substantial and more uniformly positive for all countries in the global trading system. The U.S. and Japan FTAs are based on "hub" and "spoke" arrangements. We show that the spokes emanate out in different and often overlapping directions, suggesting that the complex of bilateral FTAs may create distortions of the global trading system.

Economic effects of a Korea-U.S. free trade agreement

노트 : RESEARCH SEMINAR IN INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS Gerald R. Ford School of Public PolicyThe University of MichiganAnn Arbor, Michigan 48109-1220Discussion Paper No. 55

The mysterious eruption of V838 Mon

V838 Mon is marking one of the most mysterious stellar outbursts on record. The spectral energy distribution of the progenitor resembles an under-luminous F main sequence star (at V=15.6 mag), that erupted into a cool supergiant following a complex and multi-maxima lightcurve (peaking at V=6.7 mag). The outburst spectrum show BaII, LiI and lines of several s-elements, with wide P-Cyg profiles and a moderate and retracing emission in the Balmer lines. A light-echo discovered expanding around the object helped to constrain the distance (d=790+/-30 pc), providing M_V=+4.45 in quiescence and M_V=-4.35 at optical maximum (somewhat dependent on the still uncertain E(B-V)=0.5 reddening). The general outburst trend is toward lower temperatures and larger luminosities, and continuing so at the time of writing. The object properties conflict with a classification within already existing categories: the progenitor was not on a post-AGB track and thus the similarities with the born-again AGB stars FG Sge, V605 Aql and Sakurai's object are limited to the cool giant spectrum at maximum; the cool spectrum, the moderate wind velocity (500 km/sec and progressively reducing) and the monotonic decreasing of the low ionization condition argues against a classical nova scenario. The closest similarity is with a star that erupted into an M-type supergiant discovered in M31 by Rich et al. (1989), that became however much brighter by peaking at M_V=-9.95, and with V4332 Sgr that too erupted into an M-type giant (Martini et al. 1999) and that attained a lower luminosity, closer to that of V838 Mon. M31-RedVar, V4332 Sgr and V838 Mon could be manifestations of the same and new class of astronomical objects.Comment: A&A, in pres