Evaluation of coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations of northern hemisphere extratropical climates in the mid-Holocene

We have used the BIOME4 biogeography–biochemistry model and comparison with palaeovegetation data to evaluate the response of six ocean–atmosphere general circulation models to mid-Holocene changes in orbital forcing in the mid- to high-latitudes of the northern hemisphere. All the models produce: (a) a northward shift of the northern limit of boreal forest, in response to simulated summer warming in high-latitudes. The northward shift is markedly asymmetric, with larger shifts in Eurasia than in North America; (b) an expansion of xerophytic vegetation in mid-continental North America and Eurasia, in response to increased temperatures during the growing season; (c) a northward expansion of temperate forests in eastern North America, in response to simulated winter warming. The northward shift of the northern limit of boreal forest and the northward expansion of temperate forests in North America are supported by palaeovegetation data. The expansion of xerophytic vegetation in mid-continental North America is consistent with palaeodata, although the extent may be over-estimated. The simulated expansion of xerophytic vegetation in Eurasia is not supported by the data. Analysis of an asynchronous coupling of one model to an equilibrium-vegetation model suggests vegetation feedback exacerbates this mid-continental drying and produces conditions more unlike the observations. Not all features of the simulations are robust: some models produce winter warming over Europe while others produce winter cooling. As a result, some models show a northward shift of temperate forests (consistent with, though less marked than, the expansion shown by data) and others produce a reduction in temperate forests. Elucidation of the cause of such differences is a focus of the current phase of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project

Future changes in tropical cyclone activity in the North Indian Ocean projected by high-resolution MRI-AGCMs

Open Access at publisher's web site: http://www.springerlink.com/content/b682734237171631

(R)-2-Phen­oxy-1-(4-phenyl-2-sulfan­ylidene-1,3-oxazolidin-3-yl)ethanone

The central 1,3-oxazolidine-2-thione ring in the title compound, C17H15NO3S, is approximately planar with maximum deviations of 0.036 (4) and −0.041 (5) Å for the O and methyl­ene-C atoms, respectively. The dihedral angles formed between this plane and the two benzene rings, which lie to the same side of the central plane, are 86.5 (2) [ring-bound benzene] and 50.6 (3)°. The ethan-1-one residue is also twisted out of the central plane, forming a O—C—N—C torsion angle of 151.5 (5)°. The dihedral angle formed by the benzene rings is 62.8 (2)° so that overall, the mol­ecule has a twisted U-shape. In the crystal, mol­ecules are linked into supra­molecular arrays two mol­ecules thick in the bc plane through C—H⋯O, C—H⋯S and C—H⋯π inter­actions

Impacts of organic and conventional crop management on diversity and activity of free-living nitrogen fixing bacteria and total bacteria are subsidiary to temporal effects

A three year field study (2007-2009) of the diversity and numbers of the total and metabolically active free-living diazotophic bacteria and total bacterial communities in organic and conventionally managed agricultural soil was conducted at the Nafferton Factorial Systems Comparison (NFSC) study, in northeast England. The result demonstrated that there was no consistent effect of either organic or conventional soil management across the three years on the diversity or quantity of either diazotrophic or total bacterial communities. However, ordination analyses carried out on data from each individual year showed that factors associated with the different fertility management measures including availability of nitrogen species, organic carbon and pH, did exert significant effects on the structure of both diazotrophic and total bacterial communities. It appeared that the dominant drivers of qualitative and quantitative changes in both communities were annual and seasonal effects. Moreover, regression analyses showed activity of both communities was significantly affected by soil temperature and climatic conditions. The diazotrophic community showed no significant change in diversity across the three years, however, the total bacterial community significantly increased in diversity year on year. Diversity was always greatest during March for both diazotrophic and total bacterial communities. Quantitative analyses using qPCR of each community indicated that metabolically active diazotrophs were highest in year 1 but the population significantly declined in year 2 before recovering somewhat in the final year. The total bacterial population in contrast increased significantly each year. Seasonal effects were less consistent in this quantitative study

Fewer rainy days and more extreme rainfall by the end of the century in Southern Africa

Future changes in the structure of daily rainfall, especially the number of rainy days and the intensity of extreme events, are likely to induce major impacts on rain-fed agriculture in the tropics. In Africa this issue is of primary importance, but the agreement between climate models to simulate such descriptors of rainfall is generally poor. Here, we show that the climate models used for the fifth assessment report of IPCC simulate a marked decrease in the number of rainy days, together with a strong increase in the rainfall amounts during the 1% wettest days, by the end of the 21st century over Southern Africa. These combined changes lead to an apparent stability of seasonal totals, but are likely to alter the quality of the rainy season. These evolutions are due to the superposition of slowly-changing moisture fluxes, mainly supported by increased hygrometric capacity associated with global warming, and unchanged short-term atmospheric configurations in which extreme events are embedded. This could cause enhanced floods or droughts, stronger soil erosion and nutriment loss, questioning the sustainability of food security for the 300 million people currently living in Africa south of the Equator

Monsoons climate change assessment

Monsoon rainfall has profound economic and societal impacts for more than two-thirds of the global population. Here we provide a review on past monsoon changes and their primary drivers, the projected future changes, and key physical processes, and discuss challenges of the present and future modeling and outlooks. Continued global warming and urbanization over the past century has already caused a significant rise in the intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events in all monsoon regions (high confidence). Observed changes in the mean monsoon rainfall vary by region with significant decadal variations. Northern Hemisphere land monsoon rainfall as a whole declined from 1950 to 1980 and rebounded after the 1980s, due to the competing influences of internal climate variability and radiative forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosol forcing (high confidence); however, it remains a challenge to quantify their relative contributions. The CMIP6 models simulate better global monsoon intensity and precipitation over CMIP5 models, but common biases and large intermodal spreads persist. Nevertheless, there is high confidence that the frequency and intensity of monsoon extreme rainfall events will increase, alongside an increasing risk of drought over some regions. Also, land monsoon rainfall will increase in South Asia and East Asia (high confidence) and northern Africa (medium confidence), decrease in North America, and be unchanged in the Southern Hemisphere. Over the Asian–Australian monsoon region, the rainfall variability is projected to increase on daily to decadal scales. The rainy season will likely be lengthened in the Northern Hemisphere due to late retreat (especially over East Asia), but shortened in the Southern Hemisphere due to delayed onset

Stem cell factor and its soluble receptor (c-kit) in serum of asthmatic patients- correlation with disease severity

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>SCF (stem cell factor) is a pleiotropic cytokine exerting its role at different stages of bone marrow development and affecting eosinophil activation, mast cells and basophil chemotaxis and survival. The aim of the study was to assess concentration of SCF and its soluble receptor c-kit (sc-kit) in peripheral blood of patients with asthma referring it to asthma severity and phenotype.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study involved 107 patients with bronchial asthma, well characterized with respect to severity and 21 healthy controls. Concentration of SCF and sc-kit in the patients serum were measured by ELISA method.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Mean serum SCF level in the group of asthmatics (n = 88) was significantly higher as compared to healthy controls (1010 pg/ml ± 37 vs 799 ± 33; p < 0,001). The level of SCF was higher in patients with severe asthma as compared to patients with non-severe asthma (1054 +/- 41 pg/ml vs 819 +/- 50; p < 0,01) and correlated with dose of inhaled glucocorticosteroids taken by the patients to achieve asthma control (R = 0,28; p < 0,01). The mean sc-kit serum level did not differ between asthmatic patients and healthy controls, however the level of sc-kit in non-severe asthmatics was significantly higher as compared to patients with severe asthma and healthy controls. In asthmatic patients (n = 63) the level of sc-kit correlated positively with FEV1% predicted value (R = 0,45; p < 0,001) and MEF25% predicted value (R = 0,33; p < 0,01). The level of sc-kit inversely correlated with the dose of inhaled glucocorticosteroids taken by the patients (R = -0,26; p < 0,01).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Serum levels of SCF and its soluble receptor c-kit seem to be reflect asthma severity suggesting a role for these molecules in asthmatic inflammation.</p