What Butterfly Effect? The Contextual Differences in Public Perceptions of the Health Risk Posed by Climate Change

The definitive version is available at www.mdpi.com/journal/climate.Abstract: One of the most difficult aspects of persuading the public to support climate change policy is the lack of recognition that climate change will likely have a direct impact on an individual’s life. Anecdotal evidence and arguments within the media suggest that those who are skeptical of climate change are more likely to believe that the negative externalities associated with climate change will be experienced by others, and, therefore, are not a concern to that individual. This project examines public perceptions of the health risk posed by climate change. Using a large national public opinion survey of adults in the United States, respondents were asked to evaluate the health risk for themselves, their community, the United States, and the world. The results suggest that individuals evaluate the risk for each of these contexts differently. Statistical analyses are estimated to identify the determinants of each risk perception to identify their respective differences. The implications of these findings on support for climate change policy are discussed

“Drug Dealers, Criminals, Rapists”: The Influence of Fear and Risk on Support for Immigration Policy

Even before being elected in 2016, President Donald Trump became known for his negative rhetoric towards immigration. In 2017, Trump ended the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) policy, leaving approximately 690,000 DACA recipients in jeopardy. Despite Trump’s actions, public opinion polls show that both Democrats and Republicans seem to support DACA. In fact, a June 2018 Gallup poll reported that approximately 83 percent of respondents support a pathway to citizenship for DACA recipients. Scholars of the public policy process have recognized that public opinion often influences public policy adoption, especially when the issue is salient. Given the high salience of immigration, this project seeks to understand what factors influence support for immigration policy. Utilizing a survey, we analyze the influence of factors such as political knowledge, media, and social contact on support for immigration policy. Preliminary results suggest that fear and risk perceptions are the primary influence on support. These results suggest that the heightened negative rhetoric portraying immigrants as dangerous criminals may be driving public opinion