SYSBIONS: nested sampling for systems biology.

MOTIVATION: Model selection is a fundamental part of the scientific process in systems biology. Given a set of competing hypotheses, we routinely wish to choose the one that best explains the observed data. In the Bayesian framework, models are compared via Bayes factors (the ratio of evidences), where a model's evidence is the support given to the model by the data. A parallel interest is inferring the distribution of the parameters that define a model. Nested sampling is a method for the computation of a model's evidence and the generation of samples from the posterior parameter distribution. RESULTS: We present a C-based, GPU-accelerated implementation of nested sampling that is designed for biological applications. The algorithm follows a standard routine with optional extensions and additional features. We provide a number of methods for sampling from the prior subject to a likelihood constraint. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The software SYSBIONS is available from http://www.theosysbio.bio.ic.ac.uk/resources/sysbions/ CONTACT: [email protected], [email protected]

A graph theoretical approach to data fusion.

The rapid development of high throughput experimental techniques has resulted in a growing diversity of genomic datasets being produced and requiring analysis. Therefore, it is increasingly being recognized that we can gain deeper understanding about underlying biology by combining the insights obtained from multiple, diverse datasets. Thus we propose a novel scalable computational approach to unsupervised data fusion. Our technique exploits network representations of the data to identify similarities among the datasets. We may work within the Bayesian formalism, using Bayesian nonparametric approaches to model each dataset; or (for fast, approximate, and massive scale data fusion) can naturally switch to more heuristic modeling techniques. An advantage of the proposed approach is that each dataset can initially be modeled independently (in parallel), before applying a fast post-processing step to perform data integration. This allows us to incorporate new experimental data in an online fashion, without having to rerun all of the analysis. We first demonstrate the applicability of our tool on artificial data, and then on examples from the literature, which include yeast cell cycle, breast cancer and sporadic inclusion body myositis datasets

Topological sensitivity analysis for systems biology.

Mathematical models of natural systems are abstractions of much more complicated processes. Developing informative and realistic models of such systems typically involves suitable statistical inference methods, domain expertise, and a modicum of luck. Except for cases where physical principles provide sufficient guidance, it will also be generally possible to come up with a large number of potential models that are compatible with a given natural system and any finite amount of data generated from experiments on that system. Here we develop a computational framework to systematically evaluate potentially vast sets of candidate differential equation models in light of experimental and prior knowledge about biological systems. This topological sensitivity analysis enables us to evaluate quantitatively the dependence of model inferences and predictions on the assumed model structures. Failure to consider the impact of structural uncertainty introduces biases into the analysis and potentially gives rise to misleading conclusions

Cellular population dynamics control the robustness of the stem cell niche.

Within populations of cells, fate decisions are controlled by an indeterminate combination of cell-intrinsic and cell-extrinsic factors. In the case of stem cells, the stem cell niche is believed to maintain 'stemness' through communication and interactions between the stem cells and one or more other cell-types that contribute to the niche conditions. To investigate the robustness of cell fate decisions in the stem cell hierarchy and the role that the niche plays, we introduce simple mathematical models of stem and progenitor cells, their progeny and their interplay in the niche. These models capture the fundamental processes of proliferation and differentiation and allow us to consider alternative possibilities regarding how niche-mediated signalling feedback regulates the niche dynamics. Generalised stability analysis of these stem cell niche systems enables us to describe the stability properties of each model. We find that although the number of feasible states depends on the model, their probabilities of stability in general do not: stem cell-niche models are stable across a wide range of parameters. We demonstrate that niche-mediated feedback increases the number of stable steady states, and show how distinct cell states have distinct branching characteristics. The ecological feedback and interactions mediated by the stem cell niche thus lend (surprisingly) high levels of robustness to the stem and progenitor cell population dynamics. Furthermore, cell-cell interactions are sufficient for populations of stem cells and their progeny to achieve stability and maintain homeostasis. We show that the robustness of the niche - and hence of the stem cell pool in the niche - depends only weakly, if at all, on the complexity of the niche make-up: simple as well as complicated niche systems are capable of supporting robust and stable stem cell dynamics

Model selection in systems biology depends on experimental design.

Experimental design attempts to maximise the information available for modelling tasks. An optimal experiment allows the inferred models or parameters to be chosen with the highest expected degree of confidence. If the true system is faithfully reproduced by one of the models, the merit of this approach is clear - we simply wish to identify it and the true parameters with the most certainty. However, in the more realistic situation where all models are incorrect or incomplete, the interpretation of model selection outcomes and the role of experimental design needs to be examined more carefully. Using a novel experimental design and model selection framework for stochastic state-space models, we perform high-throughput in-silico analyses on families of gene regulatory cascade models, to show that the selected model can depend on the experiment performed. We observe that experimental design thus makes confidence a criterion for model choice, but that this does not necessarily correlate with a model's predictive power or correctness. Finally, in the special case of linear ordinary differential equation (ODE) models, we explore how wrong a model has to be before it influences the conclusions of a model selection analysis

Balancing the robustness and predictive performance of biomarkers.

Recent studies have highlighted the importance of assessing the robustness of putative biomarkers identified from experimental data. This has given rise to the concept of stable biomarkers, which are ones that are consistently identified regardless of small perturbations to the data. Since stability is not by itself a useful objective, we present a number of strategies that combine assessments of stability and predictive performance in order to identify biomarkers that are both robust and diagnostically useful. Moreover, by wrapping these strategies around logistic regression classifiers regularized by the elastic net penalty, we are able to assess the effects of correlations between biomarkers upon their perceived stability. We use a synthetic example to illustrate the properties of our proposed strategies. In this example, we find that: (i) assessments of stability can help to reduce the number of false-positive biomarkers, although potentially at the cost of missing some true positives; (ii) combining assessments of stability with assessments of predictive performance can improve the true positive rate; and (iii) correlations between biomarkers can have adverse effects on their stability and hence must be carefully taken into account when undertaking biomarker discovery. We then apply our strategies in a proteomics context to identify a number of robust candidate biomarkers for the human disease HTLV1-associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis (HAM/TSP)

MEANS: python package for Moment Expansion Approximation, iNference and Simulation.

MOTIVATION: Many biochemical systems require stochastic descriptions. Unfortunately these can only be solved for the simplest cases and their direct simulation can become prohibitively expensive, precluding thorough analysis. As an alternative, moment closure approximation methods generate equations for the time-evolution of the system's moments and apply a closure ansatz to obtain a closed set of differential equations; that can become the basis for the deterministic analysis of the moments of the outputs of stochastic systems. RESULTS: We present a free, user-friendly tool implementing an efficient moment expansion approximation with parametric closures that integrates well with the IPython interactive environment. Our package enables the analysis of complex stochastic systems without any constraints on the number of species and moments studied and the type of rate laws in the system. In addition to the approximation method our package provides numerous tools to help non-expert users in stochastic analysis. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: https://github.com/theosysbio/means CONTACTS: [email protected] or [email protected] SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online

A Herschel study of the properties of starless cores in the Polaris Flare dark cloud region using PACS and SPIRE

The Polaris Flare cloud region contains a great deal of extended emission. It is at high declination and high Galactic latitude. It was previously seen strongly in IRAS Cirrus emission at 100 microns. We have detected it with both PACS and SPIRE on Herschel. We see filamentary and low-level structure. We identify the five densest cores within this structure. We present the results of a temperature, mass and density analysis of these cores. We compare their observed masses to their virial masses, and see that in all cases the observed masses lie close to the lower end of the range of estimated virial masses. Therefore, we cannot say whether they are gravitationally bound prestellar cores. Nevertheless, these are the best candidates to be potentialprestellar cores in the Polaris cloud region.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures, accepted by A&

Robustness of MEK-ERK Dynamics and Origins of Cell-to-Cell Variability in MAPK Signaling.

Cellular signaling processes can exhibit pronounced cell-to-cell variability in genetically identical cells. This affects how individual cells respond differentially to the same environmental stimulus. However, the origins of cell-to-cell variability in cellular signaling systems remain poorly understood. Here, we measure the dynamics of phosphorylated MEK and ERK across cell populations and quantify the levels of population heterogeneity over time using high-throughput image cytometry. We use a statistical modeling framework to show that extrinsic noise, particularly that from upstream MEK, is the dominant factor causing cell-to-cell variability in ERK phosphorylation, rather than stochasticity in the phosphorylation/dephosphorylation of ERK. We furthermore show that without extrinsic noise in the core module, variable (including noisy) signals would be faithfully reproduced downstream, but the within-module extrinsic variability distorts these signals and leads to a drastic reduction in the mutual information between incoming signal and ERK activity

The Aquila prestellar core population revealed by Herschel

The origin and possible universality of the stellar initial mass function (IMF) is a major issue in astrophysics. One of the main objectives of the Herschel Gould Belt Survey is to clarify the link between the prestellar core mass function (CMF) and the IMF. We present and discuss the core mass function derived from Herschel data for the large population of prestellar cores discovered with SPIRE and PACS in the Aquila Rift cloud complex at d ~ 260 pc. We detect a total of 541 starless cores in the entire ~11 deg^2 area of the field imaged at 70-500 micron with SPIRE/PACS. Most of these cores appear to be gravitationally bound, and thus prestellar in nature. Our Herschel results confirm that the shape of the prestellar CMF resembles the stellar IMF, with much higher quality statistics than earlier submillimeter continuum ground-based surveys