Explaining Ethnic Disparities in School Enrollment in Turkey

There exist remarkable differences in educational outcomes across ethnic groups in Turkey. Moreover, almost a quarter of the population of 8- to 15-year-old children belong to ethnic minority groups. Yet, there exists no study that examines the ethnic disparities in educational outcomes in Turkey. This study presents these disparities and uncovers the factors that bring about these disparities using a rich micro-level dataset (Turkish Demographic and Health Survey). In doing so, this paper examines the differences not only in the levels of enrollment but also in the timing of drop-out across ethnic groups. The multivariate analysis accounts for a rich set of regional and socioeconomic factors, which also display striking differences across ethnic groups. The results show that regional and family level characteristics can fully account for the differences in the levels of enrollment across ethnic groups for male children, but not fully for female children. In other words, ethnicity has a direct impact on girls' school enrollment but not on boys'. There exists a gender gap among ethnic Turkish children as well as ethnic Arabic and Kurdish children. However, the gender gap among ethnic Kurdish children is wider than that among ethnic Turkish children.Education; Ethnicity; Gender; Human Capital

Labor market outcomes, capital accumulation, and return migration: Evidence from immigrants in Germany

In this paper I test the capital accumulation conjecture that is used to rationalize return migration decisions in the context of immigrants in Germany and examine how labor market outcomes influence return migration decisions, with particular attention to selection in these outcomes in return migration. I characterize the level and timing of return migration as well as the selection in it and derive a number of implications of these on the impact of immigrants on the host as well as source countries. Using a rich longitudinal dataset that has an over-sampled group of immigrants (German Socioeconomic Panel), I conduct a Cox proportional hazard analysis with alternative waiting-time concepts. That the sample contains immigrants from four different source countries allows me to utilize the variation in the source country characteristics as well as the time variation in them to identify the parameters of interest. I find evidence for the savings accumulation conjecture, in which return is motivated by higher purchasing power of accumulated savings in the home country. On the other hand, human capital accumulation conjecture is rejected. In the framework of savings accumulation, I examine the impact of an increase in German earnings whose theoretical impact on the return migration decision is ambiguous. In terms of labor market outcomes, both retirement and unemployment emerge as important determinants of return migration choices. Unemployment spell length determines the direction of selection with respect to unemployment in return migration. The data also reveal that the level of return migration is high and varies considerably across the source countries. The hazard function of Turkish immigrants displays a hump-shaped profile that peaks between the ages of 45 and 54 whereas EU immigrants are more likely to return at earlier ages and after retirement.International Migration; Capital Accumulation; Unemployment; Duration Analysis

Source Country Characteristics and Immigrants’ Migration Duration and Saving Decisions

This paper examines how immigrants’ migration duration and saving decisions in the host country respond to the purchasing power parity (ppp) and the wage ratio between the host and source countries. It is shown that in theory immigrants may stay longer in the host country as a result of an increase in ppp, in particular those with a high willingness to substitute consumption intertemporally. However, the empirical results from immigrants in Germany reveal that optimal migration duration decreases in ppp. Holding individual immigrant characteristics constant, immigrants from poorer source countries have shorter migration duration than immigrants from wealthier source countries. The empirical results also reveal that saving rate increases in ppp.International Migration, Immigrant Workers

Return Migration and Saving Behavior of Foreign Workers in Germany

In this paper, I develop a dynamic stochastic model of joint return migration and saving decisions that accounts for uncertainty in future employment and income and estimate this model using a longitudinal dataset on legal immigrants in Germany. The model gives a number of implications about the level, timing and selection of return migration as well as asset accumulation of immigrants according to their country of origin We also calculate the net lifetime contributions of immigrants to the pension and unemployment insurance systems of the host country. The estimated model is used to determine the impact of a number of counterfactual policy experiments on the return and savings behavior of immigrants as well as on their net contribution to the social security system. These counterfactuals include changes in the unemployment insurance program, payment of bonuses to selected groups to encourage return home, and exchange rate premiums by the source countries. In addition, I assess the impact of counterfactuals in the macroeconomic environment, like changes in wages in Germany and in purchasing power parity between Germany and the source countries.International Migration, Unemployment Insurance, Life Cycle Models and Saving, Public Policy

Estimating the Impact of Immigrants on the Host Country Social Security System When Return Migration is an Endogenous Choice

In this paper, I estimate the fiscal impact of immigrants on the German pension insurance (PI) and unemployment insurance (UI) systems when return migration is an endogenous choice. For this purpose, I develop a dynamic stochastic model of joint return migration and saving decisions that accounts for uncertainty in future employment and income and estimate this model using a longitudinal data set on immigrants from five different source countries. I find that allowing for the endogeneity of the return decision makes a substantial difference in the net gain of the PI and UI systems from immigrants. Exogenous return migration – which has been the practice of the literature so far – underestimates the net gain for almost all demographic groups and the amount of underestimation is remarkable for several demographic groups. In addition, age-at-arrival profiles of net contributions of immigrants – which form the basis of suggestions on selective immigration policies in the literature – are rotated significantly. Finally, a counterfactual policy experiment in which cash bonuses are provided conditional on return to unemployed immigrants turns out be ineffective in terms of reducing the burden on the state coffers for most demographic groups.immigrant workers, life cycle models, saving, social security, public pensions, unemployment insurance, public policy

Regional convergence and the causal impact of migration on regional growth rates

The standard growth theory predicts that allowing for labor mobility across regions would increase the speed of convergence in per capita income levels and that migration has a negative causal impact on regional growth rates. Although the empirical literature has uncovered some evidence for the former implication, the latter has not been verified empirically. This paper provides empirical evidence for the negative causal impact of migration on provincial growth rates in a developing country with a high level of internal migration that is characterized by unskilled labor exiting rural areas for urban centers. We utilize instrumental variables estimation method with an instrument unique to the country examined and also control for provincial fixed effects.Regional convergence; Regional growth; Internal migration; Fixed effects; IV estimation

Does Internal Migration Lead to Faster Regional Convergence in Turkey? an Empirical Investigation

In this study, using econometric methods, we examine whether internal migration in the last 30 years in Turkey has had any effect on the speed of convergence across Turkish provinces. According to standard neoclassical theory, migration across regions is conducive to faster convergence in income per capita: migration occurs from regions with low per capita income towards regions with higher per capita income, thus per capita income in in-migration regions would fall while that in out-migration regions would tend to rise, holding all else constant. In this study, we first test for absolute convergence across 67 Turkish provinces for 1975-2000 using non-linear least squares method. We find that there occurs no absolute convergence, meaning that provinces with initial-low-income per capita had no tendency to grow at a faster rate than provinces with initial-higher-income per capita. This result may be due to the fact that there are significant structural differences among provinces. To test this likelihood, regional dummies and sectoral shares in gross provincial product variables (agriculture, industry and services) are added to the convergence regressions. As expected, when we control for regional and sectoral differences across provinces, convergence across provinces occurs. Lastly, in order to assess the contribution of migration to convergence, we include net migration rates as explanatory variables to convergence regressions. We use the Instrumental Variables method in order to control for endogeneity between growth in per capita income and migration. According to our preliminary results, contrary to the predictions of the standard neoclassical theory, for 1975-2000, internal migration is not conducive to faster per capita income convergence across provinces in Turkey. One probable reason is that the marginal returns to capital in most net out-migration provinces and regions are relatively lower than those in the net in-migration provinces and regions in Turkey. Accordingly, the incentives to invest in capital in net-out migration regions may well be less than those in the net in-migration regions. Faced with lower investment in gross capital formation, and thus lower economic growth, net out-migration provinces and regions may not benefit from out-migration in terms of convergence in per capita income.

Quasi-Experimental Impact Estimates of Immigrant Labor Supply Shocks: The Role of Treatment and Comparison Group Matching and Relative Skill Composition

This paper examines the employment effects of an increase in labor supply using the politically-driven exodus of ethnic Turks from Bulgaria into Turkey in 1989. The strong involvement of the Turkish state in the settlement of earlier waves of repatriates provides us a strong source of exogenous variation in the 1989 immigrant shock across locations. Using a potential sample of 613 cities and towns in Turkey with variable treatment intensity - in some locations the change in the labor force is almost 10 percent - this analysis places much attention on constructing a matched sample that is well balanced in terms of covariate distributions of the treatment and comparison groups, including matching based on an estimated propensity score. We find a positive effect of repatriates on the unemployment of non-repatriates. In fact, in certain regions, a 10-percentage-point increase in the share of repatriates in the labor force increases the unemployment rate of natives by 4 percentage points. When the analysis is done according to skill groups, we find that the impact is the strongest on the young and on non-repatriates with similar educational attainment.Labor Force and Employment, Immigrant Workers, Quasi experiments

Source Country Characteristics and Immigrants’ Migration Duration and Saving Decisions

This paper examines how immigrants' migration duration and saving decisions in the host country respond to changes in purchasing power parity (ppp) as well as in the wage ratio between the host and source countries. For this purpose, I develop a model of immigrants' joint migration duration and saving decisions and derive comparative static results regarding the impact of ppp and wage ratio on these decisions. An interesting implication of the theoretical model is that immigrants may in fact stay longer in the host country as a result of an increase in ppp, in particular those with a low degree of relative risk aversion. I test the implications of this model using a longitudinal data set that includes immigrants from four different source countries in Germany and employing panel data estimation methods. The empirical results reveal that an increase in ppp decreases the optimal migration duration. Moreover, optimal migration duration is elastic with respect to ppp. An interesting empirical finding is that, holding individual immigrant characteristics constant, immigrants from poorer source countries have a shorter migration duration than immigrants from wealthier source countries. The empirical results also reveal that ppp has a positive effect on saving rate, which is consistent with the implications of the model, and that saving rate is also elastic with respect to ppp.International Migration, Immigrant Workers

Labor Market Outcomes, Savings Accumulation, and Return Migration

In this paper, I test the savings accumulation conjecture that is used to rationalize return migration decisions in the context of immigrants in Germany. Using cross-country and time variation in purchasing power parity, I distinguish between the two competing capital accumulation conjectures (human capital vs. savings accumulation) and uncover evidence for the savings accumulation conjecture. In addition, I examine how labor market outcomes influence return decisions. A key finding here is that unlike previous studies which find a positive impact of unemployment on return migration, I find that the direction of the impact of unemployment changes by the spell length.International Migration; Capital Accumulation; Unemployment; Duration Analysis