Modelling Credit Defaults Using Support Vector Machine And Binary Logistic Models

Defaulting on a loan essentially occurs when an individual has stopped making payments on a loan or credit card according to the account's terms. A default model is constructed by financial institutions to determine default probabilities on credit obligations by a corporation or sovereign entity. A probability of default model uses multivariate analysis and examines multiple characteristics or variables of the borrower, and it will usually account for credit or business cycles by either incorporating current financial data into the generation of the model or by including economic adjustments. Modelling loan default allows financial institutions to determine typical features and patterns of behavior that lead to a future inability to make debt repayments. This modelling helps to assess the probability of future default for each client. The focus of this study was to apply the support vector machine and binary logistic models to model credit defaults. The process involved identification of the predictors that could be associated with credit defaults as well as comparison of the performance of the prediction models on their statistical power to model credit defaults. The analysis was done using R statistical software. The results showed that variables; credit amount, marital status, credit history and location of property used as security were significant predictors of credit defaults. The results also showed that the binary logistic model had a better performance that the support vector machine model in terms of F1 score and accuracy of predicting credit defaults. The logistic model had the accuracy of 0.826087 and an F1 score of 0.8809524. The support vector machine had the accuracy of 0.7826087 and an F1 score of 0.8554913. From the study findings, it was concluded that, the accuracy of the prediction models in modelling of credit defaults was dependent on the variables considered. Different set of variables would yield different accuracies for the prediction models

Popular culture, family relations and issues of everyday democracy: a study of youth in Pumwani

This paper deals with young women and men's appropriation of local and global popular culture in Pumwani, a poor Nairobi neighbourhood. Local media articulate Christian ideals of marriage and gender relations, ideals, which in the West would be considered conservative. In a Kenyan context the ideals support the transformation of extended family systems, based on a clear separation of functions between generations and sexes, into 'modem' nuclear families, which are ..more fluid, and where power may be distributed more equally between sexes and generations. Influential global popular culture narratives, such as the television soap opera, The Bold and the Beautiful, and several situation comedies, featuring African American stars, also support ideals of equality between the sexes and generations, implicit in the modern love marriage and nuclear family ideal. At the same time they may seem to encourage non-binding love affairs. The role of popular culture in central areas of life is increasing in tandem with a general social transformation, which renders the authority of older generations and also of church and state debatable. The arguments of the paper are based on group and life history interviews and surveys of work and leisure activities of a group of fairly well educated but mostly out-of-work or self-employed young men and women. Accounts of selected popular culture texts and reception analyses of visual material supplement the sociological approaches. The conclusion of the article is that young women in particular make use of a public sphere, understood as a process of articulation. The discursive spaces opened up by media do not have the barriers, which elsewhere keep women and poor people from taking part in debates on key social and moral questions. In that sense they contribute significantly to the creation of a democratic public spher

Physical and Cooking Properties of Two Varieties of Bio-Fortified Common Beans (Phaseolus Vulgaris. L) Grown in DR Congo

Common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) is the most widely grown edible legume species in DR Congo but nevertheless, different varieties vary with respect to their physical, chemical aspects and cooking properties which affect the consumer acceptability. This study evaluated the physical properties and cooking time of two varieties of bio-fortified common beans (HM21_7 and Namulenga), destined for both direct consumption and processing. The parameters assessed included the dimensions, the soaking characteristics, the density characteristics, Colour and the Hardness after cooking. The beans were soaked in distilled water and in 0.025N Na2CO3 solution for 16h then subjected to different test as mention above. The data collected were subjected to Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) using Statistix version 8.1 software. Treatment means were separated using LSD at 0.05 probability level.  HM21_7 was larger in size and 100 seeds weight with (36.27±1.33 g) compared to Namulenga (32.77±0.55 g). The sphericity was (54.4% and 58.9%), surface area was (127 mm2 and 118 mm2), aspect ratio was (0.49 and 0.55) and volume was (147 mm2 and 142 mm2) for both HM21_7 and Namulenga respectively. The soaking solutions had a significant effect on the hydration coefficient, swelling coefficient. Soaking the beans in Na2CO3 increased significantly the conductivity and the leached solutes for both the varieties. Namulenga variety had the higher bulk density (0.81 g/ml) compared to HM21_7 (0.77 g/ml). The porosity varied significantly among the two varieties. A significant different (P<0.01) was observed in the colour of the beans after soaking. Beans soaked in distilled water were lighter due to greater pigment leaching. On the other hand, beans soaked in Na2CO3 solution for 16 h showed darker colour. Soaking in sodium carbonate solution prior to cooking significantly reduced the hardness of the beans compared to the unsoaked beans and beans soaked in distilled water. According to the characteristics studied, the Namulenga variety is a good option for both processing and domestic use. Keywords: Physical properties, Hardness, Bio-fortified beans

Application Of The Randomized Completely Block Design To Investigate The Effect Of Soil Ph And The Amount Of Calcium In The Soil On The Rate Of Growth Of Tree Seedlings

Trees play a crucial role in maintaining the beautiful nature of the environment and keeping it in its natural state. They also play diverse roles to both humans and animals. For instance, a few trees are a source of income to farmers, fuel, food and protecting the soil. The rate at which forests are destroyed is alarming since day in day out trees are being cut without reforestation, reducing the forest cover, which leaves the soil bare and exposed to every agent of erosion. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of soil pH and the amount of calcium in the soil on the rate of growth tree seedlings. Specifically, the study focused on the effect of calcium on the tree seedlings growth rate, effect of pH on seedlings growth rate and effect of the interaction between pH and calcium on the growth of seedlings. A randomized complete block design was used for data collection. Secondary data used for this study was collected from the Kenya Forest Research Institute. The data analysis was done using Excel and R statistical software. The results were in form of descriptive statistics and Analysis of variance as an inferential statistics. The results showed that calcium amount, pH and their interaction had a statistical effect on the rate of growth of the tree seedlings. The results also showed that the highest growth rates obtained at pH levels of 6 and calcium amount of 20 grams per 1 plot. The study thus recommended consideration of optimal levels of calcium and pH for fast rate of growth of tree seedlings

Impact of Storage Conditions on the Physical Properties and Cooking Characteristics of Two Bean Varieties Grown in Kenya

Common beans are highly nutritious and widely consumed in Kenya. Storage of common beans under adverse conditions of high temperature and high humidity renders them susceptible to the hard-to-cook (HTC) defect. This results in increased cooking time, fuel and water use which has a negative effect on acceptability and utilization of beans. The objective of this study was to determine effects of storage temperature and relative humidity on development of the HTC defect in Rose coco and Red Kidney bean varieties. Bean samples were obtained from Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization (K ALRO) - Thika. The beans were stored at varying temperature (25ºC, 35˚ C and 45˚ C) and relative humidity (RH=75% and 83%) combinations. Apart from beans stored at 25ºC/75%, samples from each treatment condition were sampled after every two months and analyzed for physical properties. Soaking pretreatments in deionized water, sodium carbonate and calcium chloride solutions were carried out to determine their effect on the cooking time. There was a significant increase in conductivity and leached solutes paralleled by decreasing hydration and swelling coefficients with increasing storage time under all the storage conditions. Characteristic dimensions and one hundred seed weight were not significantly different among the bean varieties under various storage conditions. Moisture uptake reduced by 19% for Rose coco and 23% for Red kidney under 35˚C/83%  storage whereas 45˚C/75% had a 29% reduction for Rose coco and 39% reduction for Red kidney over the 6 months storage period. Cooking time increased for all the bean varieties with increasing storage time, the most pronounced increase (100%) being observed at 45˚C and 75% RH. Across the 6 months storage period, Na2CO3 soaking pretreatment reduced the cooking time by 75% for Rose coco and 70% for Red kidney in comparison to beans cooked without prior soaking. Based on the results of this study, it was concluded that storage under high temperature and relative humidity conditions accelerated the development of the HTC defect in beans resulting in changes in physical and cooking properties. Keywords: hard-to-cook, storage, physical properties, cooking qualit