Analysis of volcanic threat from Nisyros Island, Greece, with implications for aviation and population exposure

Nisyros island in the South Aegean volcanic arc, Greece, is a Quaternary composite volcano with a 3.8 km wide caldera that in 1996 entered a volcano-seismic crisis, which heralded the islands' return to a state of unrest. The caldera has been the locus of at least thirteen phreatic eruptions in historical times, the most recent in 1888, and the system is still presently affected by considerable hydrothermal activity. Although the recent unrest waned off without eruption, there are still open questions relating to the current threat of volcanic activity from the island. Here, we perform a detailed and systematic assessment of the volcanic threat of Nisyros using a threat analysis protocol established as part of the USGS National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS). The evaluation involves a methodical assessment of fifteen hazard and exposure factors, and is based on a score system, whereby the higher the score, the higher the threat is. Uncertainty in assessment criteria are expressed by allowing for a conservative and an extreme score for each factor. We draw our analysis from published data as well as from results of our research on Nisyros over the past years. Our analysis yields a conservative threat score of 163 and an extreme score of 262. The most adverse exposure factors include significant scores relating to aviation and population exposure to volcanic hazards from Nisyros. When looked at in comparison to US volcanoes both scores place Nisyros in the "Very High Threat (VHT)" category, grouping it with volcanoes such as Redoubt, Mount Ranier and Crater Lake. We identify a short-fall in recommended surveillance efforts for VHT volcanoes given existing monitoring capabilities on the island. We discuss potential pitfalls of applying the NVEWS scheme to Nisyros and suggest potential adaptation of analysis scheme to match industrial and societal conditions in Europe. At the same time, our findings indicate that that volcanic threat posed by Nisyros volcano may currently be underestimated

SEMDSA/ACE-SA Guideline for the Management of Hypothyroidism in Adults

Background: Hypothyroidism is a common clinical condition confronting all healthcare practitioners yet there remains uncertainty about the optimal medication and optimum treatment targets. In addition, many patients remain symptomatic despite using recommended medications and attaining recommended treatment targets.Methods: All endocrinologists in South Africa who consented to be part of the guideline process were assigned various aspects of the management of patients with thyroid disease. In each section the current literature was reviewed and the level of evidence was graded. This information was then presented at a guideline meeting. Where evidence was lacking a consensus among participants was adopted.Results: This guideline provides 11 recommendations for the management of primary hypothyroidism, secondary hypothyroidism and subclinical hypothyroidism in adults.Conclusions: This is the first South African guideline for the management of hypothyroidism in adults and represents a comprehensive review of the current literature in an attempt to provide evidence-based guidance for all healthcare practitioners regarding the many clinical aspects encountered when managing patients with hypothyroidism

Search for charginos in e+e- interactions at sqrt(s) = 189 GeV

An update of the searches for charginos and gravitinos is presented, based on a data sample corresponding to the 158 pb^{-1} recorded by the DELPHI detector in 1998, at a centre-of-mass energy of 189 GeV. No evidence for a signal was found. The lower mass limits are 4-5 GeV/c^2 higher than those obtained at a centre-of-mass energy of 183 GeV. The (\mu,M_2) MSSM domain excluded by combining the chargino searches with neutralino searches at the Z resonance implies a limit on the mass of the lightest neutralino which, for a heavy sneutrino, is constrained to be above 31.0 GeV/c^2 for tan(beta) \geq 1.Comment: 22 pages, 8 figure

Hadronization properties of b quarks compared to light quarks in e+e- -> q qbar from 183 to 200 GeV

The DELPHI detector at LEP has collected 54 pb^{-1} of data at a centre-of-mass energy around 183 GeV during 1997, 158 pb^{-1} around 189 GeV during 1998, and 187 pb^{-1} between 192 and 200 GeV during 1999. These data were used to measure the average charged particle multiplicity in e+e- -> b bbar events, _{bb}, and the difference delta_{bl} between _{bb} and the multiplicity, _{ll}, in generic light quark (u,d,s) events: delta_{bl}(183 GeV) = 4.55 +/- 1.31 (stat) +/- 0.73 (syst) delta_{bl}(189 GeV) = 4.43 +/- 0.85 (stat) +/- 0.61 (syst) delta_{bl}(200 GeV) = 3.39 +/- 0.89 (stat) +/- 1.01 (syst). This result is consistent with QCD predictions, while it is inconsistent with calculations assuming that the multiplicity accompanying the decay of a heavy quark is independent of the mass of the quark itself.Comment: 13 pages, 2 figure

Search for supersymmetric particles in scenarios with a gravitino LSP and stau NLSP

Sleptons, neutralinos and charginos were searched for in the context of scenarios where the lightest supersymmetric particle is the gravitino. It was assumed that the stau is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle. Data collected with the DELPHI detector at a centre-of-mass energy near 189 GeV were analysed combining the methods developed in previous searches at lower energies. No evidence for the production of these supersymmetric particles was found. Hence, limits were derived at 95% confidence level.Comment: 31 pages, 14 figure

Quantifying Microstructural Evolution in Moving Magma

Many of the grand challenges in volcanic and magmatic research are focused on understanding the dynamics of highly heterogeneous systems and the critical conditions that enable magmas to move or eruptions to initiate. From the formation and development of magma reservoirs, through propagation and arrest of magma, to the conditions in the conduit, gas escape, eruption dynamics, and beyond into the environmental impacts of that eruption, we are trying to define how processes occur, their rates and timings, and their causes and consequences. However, we are usually unable to observe the processes directly. Here we give a short synopsis of the new capabilities and highlight the potential insights that in situ observation can provide. We present the XRheo and Pele furnace experimental apparatus and analytical toolkit for the in situ X-ray tomography-based quantification of magmatic microstructural evolution during rheological testing. We present the first 3D data showing the evolving textural heterogeneity within a shearing magma, highlighting the dynamic changes to microstructure that occur from the initiation of shear, and the variability of the microstructural response to that shear as deformation progresses. The particular shear experiments highlighted here focus on the effect of shear on bubble coalescence with a view to shedding light on both magma transport and fragmentation processes. The XRheo system is intended to help us understand the microstructural controls on the complex and non-Newtonian evolution of magma rheology, and is therefore used to elucidate the many mobilization, transport, and eruption phenomena controlled by the rheological evolution of a multi-phase magmatic flows. The detailed, in situ characterization of sample textures presented here therefore represents the opening of a new field for the accurate parameterization of dynamic microstructural control on rheological behavior

Measurements of the leptonic branching fractions of the τ\tau

Data collected with the DELPHI detector from 1993 to 1995 combined with previous DELPHI results for data from 1991 and 1992 yield the branching fractions B({\tau \rightarrow \mbox{\rm e} \nu \bar{\nu}}) = (17.877 \pm 0.109_{stat} \pm 0.110_{sys} )\% and $B({\tau \rightarrow \mu \nu \bar{\nu}}) = (17.325 \pm 0.095_{stat} \pm 0.077_{sys} )\%$

Measurement of the gluon fragmentation function and a comparison of the scaling violation in gluon and quarks jets

The fragmentation functions of quarks and gluons are measured in various three-jet topologies in Z decays from the full data set collected with the Delphi detector at the Z resonance between 1992 and 1995. The results at different values of transverse momentum-like scales are compared. A parameterization of the quark and gluon fragmentation functions at a fixed reference scale is given. The quark and gluon fragmentation functions show the predicted pattern of scaling violations. The scaling violation for quark jets as a function of a transverse momentum-like scale is in a good agreement with that observed in lower energy e+e− annihilation experiments. For gluon jets it appears to be significantly stronger. The scale dependences of the gluon and quark fragmentation functions agree with the prediction of the DGLAP evolution equations from which the colour factor ratio CA/CF is measured to be: CACF=2.26±0.09stat.±0.06sys.±0.12clus.,scale

The RESET project: constructing a European tephra lattice for refined synchronisation of environmental and archaeological events during the last c. 100 ka

This paper introduces the aims and scope of the RESET project (. RESponse of humans to abrupt Environmental Transitions), a programme of research funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (UK) between 2008 and 2013; it also provides the context and rationale for papers included in a special volume of Quaternary Science Reviews that report some of the project's findings. RESET examined the chronological and correlation methods employed to establish causal links between the timing of abrupt environmental transitions (AETs) on the one hand, and of human dispersal and development on the other, with a focus on the Middle and Upper Palaeolithic periods. The period of interest is the Last Glacial cycle and the early Holocene (c. 100-8 ka), during which time a number of pronounced AETs occurred. A long-running topic of debate is the degree to which human history in Europe and the Mediterranean region during the Palaeolithic was shaped by these AETs, but this has proved difficult to assess because of poor dating control. In an attempt to move the science forward, RESET examined the potential that tephra isochrons, and in particular non-visible ash layers (cryptotephras), might offer for synchronising palaeo-records with a greater degree of finesse. New tephrostratigraphical data generated by the project augment previously-established tephra frameworks for the region, and underpin a more evolved tephra 'lattice' that links palaeo-records between Greenland, the European mainland, sub-marine sequences in the Mediterranean and North Africa. The paper also outlines the significance of other contributions to this special volume: collectively, these illustrate how the lattice was constructed, how it links with cognate tephra research in Europe and elsewhere, and how the evidence of tephra isochrons is beginning to challenge long-held views about the impacts of environmental change on humans during the Palaeolithic. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.RESET was funded through Consortium Grants awarded by the Natural Environment Research Council, UK, to a collaborating team drawn from four institutions: Royal Holloway University of London (grant reference NE/E015905/1), the Natural History Museum, London (NE/E015913/1), Oxford University (NE/E015670/1) and the University of Southampton, including the National Oceanography Centre (NE/01531X/1). The authors also wish to record their deep gratitude to four members of the scientific community who formed a consultative advisory panel during the lifetime of the RESET project: Professor Barbara Wohlfarth (Stockholm University), Professor Jørgen Peder Steffensen (Niels Bohr Institute, Copenhagen), Dr. Martin Street (Romisch-Germanisches Zentralmuseum, Neuwied) and Professor Clive Oppenheimer (Cambridge University). They provided excellent advice at key stages of the work, which we greatly valued. We also thank Jenny Kynaston (Geography Department, Royal Holloway) for construction of several of the figures in this paper, and Debbie Barrett (Elsevier) and Colin Murray Wallace (Editor-in-Chief, QSR) for their considerable assistance in the production of this special volume.Peer Reviewe