Local Polynomial Kernel Forecasts and Management of Price Risks using Futures Markets

This study contributes to understanding price risk management through hedging strategies in a forecasting context. A relatively new forecasting method, nonparametric local polynomial kernel (LPK), is used and applied to the hog sector. The selective multiproduct hedge based on the LPK price and hedge ratio forecasts is, in general, found to be better than continuous hedge and alternative forecasting procedures in terms of reduction of variance of unhedged return. The findings indicate that combining hedging with forecasts, especially when using the LPK technique, can potentially improve price risk management.Marketing,

Topological susceptibility and Instanton size distribution from over-improved cooling

We measure the topological susceptibility by cooling with an over-improved action. In contrast with usual cooling, large instantons survive over-improved cooling {\em indefinitely}. By varying the parameter of the over-improved cooling action, we measure the instanton size distribution.Comment: 4 uuencoded PostScript pages, contribution to LAT95 (fig.2 simplified to conserve space; available upon request

Fast Fight Detection

Action recognition has become a hot topic within computer vision. However, the action recognition community has focused mainly on relatively simple actions like clapping, walking, jogging, etc. The detection of specific events with direct practical use such as fights or in general aggressive behavior has been comparatively less studied. Such capability may be extremely useful in some video surveillance scenarios like prisons, psychiatric centers or even embedded in camera phones. As a consequence, there is growing interest in developing violence detection algorithms. Recent work considered the well-known Bag-of-Words framework for the specific problem of fight detection. Under this framework, spatio-temporal features are extracted from the video sequences and used for classification. Despite encouraging results in which high accuracy rates were achieved, the computational cost of extracting such features is prohibitive for practical applications. This work proposes a novel method to detect violence sequences. Features extracted from motion blobs are used to discriminate fight and non-fight sequences. Although the method is outperformed in accuracy by state of the art, it has a significantly faster computation time thus making it amenable for real-time applications

A skyrmion-based spin-torque nano-oscillator

A model for a spin-torque nano-oscillator based on the self-sustained oscillation of a magnetic skyrmion is presented. The system involves a circular nanopillar geometry comprising an ultrathin film free magnetic layer with a strong Dzyaloshinkii-Moriya interaction and a polariser layer with a vortex-like spin configuration. It is shown that spin-transfer torques due to current flow perpendicular to the film plane leads to skyrmion gyration that arises from a competition between geometric confinement due to boundary edges and the vortex-like polarisation of the spin torques. A phenomenology for such oscillations is developed and quantitative analysis using micromagnetics simulations is presented. It is also shown that weak disorder due to random anisotropy variations does not influence the main characteristics of the steady-state gyration.Comment: 15 pages, 6 figure

Teaching Vocational Gardening Skills To An Adolescent With Severe Autism

This research project examines the efficacy of teaching specific vocational gardening skills that are tied directly to real world job skills for an adolescent with severe autism. This study sought to determine if visual activity schedules paired with prompting increases independent achievement of gardening skills identified as essential to successful performance at a garden center job site for an adolescent with severe autism. Current research shows that the majority of adults with autism spectrum disorder are either unemployed or underemployed (Gerhardt & Lainer, 2011); however, when individuals with ASD participated in supported employment their quality of life improved, reduced their autistic symptoms, and increased cognitive functioning (Taylor et al. 2012). This quantitative research design looked closely at one student working on three specific vocational gardening activities that were directly related to employable skills at a garden center. The activities were broken down into multiple steps through a visual activity schedule paired with prompting hierarchies. The results exhibited an increase in independence of gardening activities of a simulated garden center on school grounds, for an adolescent with severe ASD, thus suggesting the use of visual supports paired with prompting was highly effective in independent performance for all three gardening skills