Labor Force Participation: Timing and Persistence

This paper examines the relative importance of timing and persistence elements in explaining cyclical fluctuations in labor supply. Data from the natural experiment provided by World War I1 and cross-sectional data on American local labor markets, as well as aggregate time-series data are used in the empirical work. We find little evidence that timing effects play an important role in labor market dynamics. The evidence suggests that views emphasizing persistence are more accurate, and that previous employment tends to raise the probability of subsequent employment.

Labor Market Dynamics and Unemployemnt: A Reconsideration

macroeconomics, unemployment

The Dynamics of Youth Unemployment

This paper analyzes the dynamics of youth unemployment. Three broad conclusions emerge. First, the problem of youth joblessness extends beyond the unemployed. We find that over one-half of youth unemployment spells end in labor force withdrawal. Much of youth non-employment is not picked up in the official unemployment statistics, because many young people give up the search for work and leave the labor force. Second, a large part of youth unemployment is accounted for by a relatively small, hard core group of young people who experience long spells of unemployment. While most unemployment spells are short, this is due to the high rates of labor force withdrawal, rather than to job finding. Among male teenagers out of school, for example, we find that over half of unemployment was due to those with more than six months of unemployment in the year. Third, a shortage of attractive jobs is the principle source of long term non-employment. While instability and frequent turnover are major factors in determining the overall pattern of teenage unemployment, we find that the lack of desirable employment opportunities is the crux of the problem for those most seriously affected by youth unemployment.

Demographic Differences in Cyclical Employment Variation

Demographic differences in patterns of employment variation over the business cycle are examined in this paper. Three primary conclusions emerge. First, both participation and unemployment must be considered in any analysis of cyclical changes in the labor market. Second, young people bear a disproportionate share of cyclical employment variation. Third, failure to consider participation has led to undue pessimism about the effect of aggregate demand policy on high unemployment groups. If participation did not surge, reduction in overall unemployment to its 1969 level would reduce the unemployment of almost all demographic groups to very low levels.

Adolescent religiosity and conformity to parents: Is sex a moderator?

This study examines relations between adolescent reports of conformity to their parents and religiosity and if these are moderated by the sex of the adolescent and parent. Self-report data was collected from 121 ninth and tenth graders enrolled in three non-metropolitan high schools. Religiosity was measured by Schumm et al.\u27s (1991) modified version of Gorsuch and Venable\u27s (1983) scales. Conformity to Parents was assessed using Peterson\u27s (Peterson, Rollins, & Thomas, 1985) Conformity to Parents scales. Four regressions were used. Results indicate that females: (a) report higher levels of conformity to parents and religiosity than males and (b) that when adolescent they report higher levels of conformity to mothers, they also report higher levels of intrinsic religiosity. One unexpected finding was that females who reported higher levels of conformity to fathers also reported higher levels of intrinsic religiosity. Findings and implication are discussed