Excess mortality and the COVID-19 pandemic: causes of death and social inequalities

Background During the coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, population’s mortality has been affected not only by the risk of infection itself, but also through deferred care for other causes and changes in lifestyle. This study aims to investigate excess mortality by cause of death and socio-demographic context during the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea.  Methods Mortality data within the period 2015–2020 were obtained from Statistics Korea, and deaths from COVID-19 were excluded. We estimated 2020 daily excess deaths for all causes, the eight leading causes of death, and according to individual characteristics, using a two-stage interrupted time series design accounting for temporal trends and variations in other risk factors. Results During the pandemic period (February 18 to December 31, 2020), an estimated 663 (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: -2356–3584) excess deaths occurred in South Korea. Mortality related to respiratory diseases decreased by 4371 (3452–5480), whereas deaths due to metabolic diseases and ill-defined causes increased by 808 (456–1080) and 2756 (2021–3378), respectively. The increase in all-cause deaths was prominent in those aged 65–79 years (941, 88–1795), with an elementary school education or below (1757, 371–3030), or who were single (785, 384–1174), while a decrease in deaths was pronounced in those with a college-level or higher educational attainment (1471, 589–2328). Conclusion No evidence of a substantial increase in all-cause mortality was found during the 2020 pandemic period in South Korea, as a result of a large decrease in deaths related to respiratory diseases that offset increased mortality from metabolic disease and diseases of ill-defined cause. The COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionately affected those of lower socioeconomic status and has exacerbated inequalities in mortality.This work was supported by Korea Environment Industry & Technology Institute (KEITI) through "Climate Change R&D Project for New Climate Regime.", funded by Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) (2022003570006)

Effects of residential greenness on clinical outcomes of patients with chronic kidney disease: a large-scale observation study

Background: As industrialization and urbanization are accelerating, the distribution of green areas is decreasing, particularly in developing countries. Since the 2000s, the effects of surrounding greenness on self-perceived health, including physical and mental health, longevity, and obesity have been reported. However, the effects of surrounding green space on chronic kidney disease are not well understood. Therefore, we investigated the impact of residential greenness on the mortality of chronic kidney disease patients and progression from chronic kidney disease to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Methods: Using a large-scale observational study, we recruited chronic kidney disease patients (n = 64,565; mean age, 54.0 years; 49.0% of male) who visited three Korean medical centers between January 2001 and December 2016. We investigated the hazard ratios of clinical outcomes per 0.1-point increment of exposure to greenness using various models. Results: During the mean follow-up of 6.8 +/- 4.6 years, 5,512 chronic kidney disease patients developed ESRD (8.5%) and 8,543 died (13.2%). In addition, a 0.1-point increase in greenness reduced all-cause mortality risk in chronic kidney disease and ESRD patients and progression of chronic kidney disease to ESRD in a fully adjusted model. The association between mortality in ESRD patients and the normalized difference vegetation index was negatively correlated in people aged >65 years, who had normal weight, were nonsmokers, and lived in a nonmetropolitan area. Conclusion: Chronic kidney disease patients who live in areas with higher levels of greenness are at reduced risk of all-cause mortality and progression to ESRD.Y

Clinical outcomes associated with long-term exposure to airborne particulate pollution in kidney transplant recipients

Background Researchers have yet to investigate the specific association between 10-μm particulate matter (PM10) levels and the risk of graft failure, kidney disease, or the functional decline of transplanted kidneys, in kidney transplant recipients (KTRs). Furthermore, we know very little about the association between PM10 levels and the development of allograft rejection in transplanted kidneys. Identification of air pollution as a potential contributor to kidney disease could help reduce future disease burden, stimulate policy discussions on the importance of reducing air pollution with respect to health and disease, and increase public awareness of the hazards of air pollution. We aimed to evaluate the relationship of PM10 with the risk of graft failure, mortality, and decline of graft function in KTRs. Methods Air pollutant data were obtained from the Korean National Institute of Environmental Research. We then investigated potential associations between these data and the clinical outcomes of 1532 KTRs who underwent kidney transplantation in a tertiary hospital between 2001 and 2015. Survival models were used to evaluate the association between PM10 concentrations and the risk of death-censored graft failure (DCGF), all-cause mortality, and biopsy-proven rejection (BPR), over a median follow-up period of 6.31 years. Results The annual mean PM10 exposure after kidney transplantation was 27.1 ± 8.0 μg/m3. Based on 1-year baseline exposure, 1 μg/m3 increase in PM10 concentration was associated with an increased risk of DCGF (hazard ratio (HR): 1.049; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.014–1.084) and BPR (HR: 1.053; 95% CI: 1.042–1.063). Fully adjusted models showed that all-cause mortality was significantly associated with 1-year average PM10 concentrations (HR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.043 to 1.140). Conclusions Long-term PM10 exposure is significantly associated with BPR, DCGF, and all-cause mortality in KTRs.This work was supported by the Seoul National University Research Grant in 2018, the Korean Society of Nephrology Grant in 2018 (BAXTER), and by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education (2019R1A6A3A01095329) and the Global Research Lab through the NRF, funded by the Ministry of Science and ICT (Information and Communication Technologies) in South Korea (grant number K2100400000110A0500–00710; H Kim)

Do H-2A Guest Workers Displace Native Farmworkers?

73 pagesThere is persistent evidence of acute labor shortage across farms in the U.S. Because of difficulty in finding willing native workers, more farms are resorting to the H-2A program to hire foreign temporary agricultural workers. In this paper, we study how the H-2A program responds to local unemployment and wages. The results indicate that a decrease in unemployment rate and an increase in AEWR increases H-2A demand. This suggests that farmers only use the H-2A program as a last resort and that H-2A guest workers do not displace native workers.2023-10-1

Projection of Future Mortality Due to Temperature and Population Changes under Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

The Paris Agreement aims to limit the global temperature increase to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to even below 1.5 °C. Now, it should be asked what benefits are in pursuing these two targets. In this study, we assessed the temperature–mortality relationship using a distributed lag non-linear model in seven major cities of South Korea. Then, we projected future temperature-attributable mortality under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios for those cities. Mortality was projected to increase by 1.53 under the RCP 4.5 (temperature increase by 2.83 °C) and 3.3 under the RCP 8.5 (temperature increase by 5.10 °C) until the 2090s, as compared to baseline (1991–2015) mortality. However, future mortality is expected to increase by less than 1.13 and 1.26 if the 1.5 °C and 2 °C increase targets are met, respectively, under the RCP 4.5. Achieving the more ambitious target of 1.5 °C will reduce mortality by 12%, when compared to the 2 °C target. When we estimated future mortality due to both temperature and population changes, the future mortality was found to be increased by 2.07 and 3.85 for the 1.5 °C and 2 °C temperature increases, respectively, under the RCP 4.5. These increases can be attributed to a growing proportion of elderly population, who is more vulnerable to high temperatures. Meeting the target of 1.5 °C will be particularly beneficial for rapidly aging societies, including South Korea

Evaluation of the Prognosis of COVID-19 Patients According to the Presence of Underlying Diseases and Drug Treatment

Certain underlying diseases such as diabetic mellitus and hypertension are a risk factor for the severity and mortality of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) patients. Furthermore, both angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEi) and angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs) are controversial at role in the process of COVID-19 cases. The aim of the study was to investigate whether underlying diseases and taking ACEi/ARBs, affect the duration of hospitalization and mortality in patients with confirmed COVID-19. Medical usage claims data for the past three years until 15 May 2020, from the "CORONA-19 International Cooperation Research" project was used. We analyzed the medical insurance claims data for all 7590 coronavirus (COVID-19) patients confirmed by RT-PCR tests nationwide up to 15 May 2020. Among the comorbidities, a history of hypertension (hazard ratio [HR], 1.51; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.056-2.158) and diabetes (HR, 1.867; 95% CI, 1.408-2.475) were associated significantly with mortality. Furthermore, heart failure (HR, 1.391; 95% CI, 1.027-1.884), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR, 1.615; 95% CI, 1.185-2.202), chronic kidney disease (HR, 1.451; 95% CI, 1.018-2.069), mental disorder (HR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.106-2.343), end stage renal disease (HR, 5.353; 95% CI, 2.185-13.12) were also associated significantly with mortality. The underlying disease has increased the risk of mortality in patients with COVID-19. Diabetes, hypertension, cancer, chronic kidney disease, heart failure, and mental disorders increased mortality. Controversial whether taking ACEi/ARBs would benefit COVID-19 patients, in our study, patients taking ACEi/ARBs had a higher risk of mortality.Y

Effects of air pollution on mortality of patients with chronic kidney disease: A large observational cohort study

Due to industrialization, the burden of diseases associated with air pollution is increasing. Although the risk associated with air pollution in the general population has been actively investigated, few studies have been conducted on the effects of exposure to air pollution in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) in East Asia. A total of 29,602 patients with CKD in Seoul participated in a retrospective cohort at three medical centers. We assessed the association of individualized exposure to five types of air pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, NO2, SO2, and CO) using inverse distance weighting (IDW) on mortality in CKD patients in the Cox proportional hazard model that was adjusted for sex, age, eGFR, hemoglobin, hypertension, diabetes, and area-level characteristics. During the 6.14 +/- 3.96 years, 3863 deaths (13%) were observed. We confirmed the significant effects of PM2.5 (hazard ratio [HR] 1.17, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07-029) and CO (HR 1.17.95% CI 1.00-1.38) on mortality in CKD patients. Different associations were found when stratified by age, body mass index, smoking, and drinking status. Long-term exposure to air pollutants had negative effects on mortality in patients with CKD. These effects were prominent in patients aged over 65 years, patients with a lean body, and those who did not drink alcohol. (C) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.N

Ambient carbon monoxide correlates with mortality risk of hemodialysis patients: comparing results of control selection in the case-crossover designs

Background: Growing evidence suggests that environmental air pollution adversely affects kidney health. To date, the association be-tween carbon monoxide (CO) and mortality in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) has not been examined.Methods: Among 134,478 dialysis patients in the Korean ESRD cohort between 2001 and 2014, 8,130 deceased hemodialysis pa-tients were enrolled, and data were analyzed using bidirectional, unidirectional, and time-stratified case-crossover design. We exam-ined the association between short-term CO concentration and mortality in patients with ESRD. We used a two-pollutant model, ad-justed for temperature as a climate factor and for nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), ozone (O3), and particulate matter less than 10 mu m in diameter as air pollution variables other than CO.Results: Characteristics of the study population included age (66.2 +/- 12.1 years), sex (male, 59.1%; female, 40.9%), and comorbidi-ties (diabetes, 55.6%; hypertension, 14.4%).Concentration of CO was significantly associated with all-cause mortality in the three case-crossover designs using the two-pollutant model adjusted for SO2. Patients with diabetes or age older than 75 years had a high-er risk of mortality than patients without diabetes or those younger than 75 years. Conclusion: Findings presented here suggest that higher CO concentration is correlated with increased all-cause mortality in hemodi-alysis patients, especially in older high-risk patients.Y

A novel loop-mediated isothermal amplification assay for serogroup identification of Neisseria meningitidis in cerebrospinal fluid

We have developed a novel Neisseria meningitidis serogroup-specific loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) assay for six of the most common meningococcal serogroups (A, B, C, W, X, and Y). The assay was evaluated using a set of 31 meningococcal LAMP assay positive cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) specimens from 1574 children with suspected meningitis identified in prospective surveillance between 1998 and 2002 in Vietnam, China, and Korea.Primer specificity was validated using 15 N. meningitidis strains (including serogroups A, B, C, E, W, X, Y, and Z) and 19 non-N. meningitidis species. The N. meningitidis serogroup LAMP detected down to ten copies and 100 colony-forming units per reaction. Twenty-nine CSF had N. meningitidis serogroup identified by LAMP compared with two CSF in which N. meningitidis serogroup was identified by culture & multi-locus sequence typing. This is the first report of a serogroup-specific identification assay for N. meningitidis using the LAMP method. Our results suggest that this assay will be a rapid, sensitive and uniquely serogroup-specific assay with potential for application in clinical laboratories and public health surveillance systems