FDI And Economic Growth In CEE And MENA Countries: A Tale Of Two Regions

This paper examines the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth in two different regions: Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The main findings of our analysis suggest that FDI has a positive effect on growth only in EU accession countries while the effect of FDI on growth in MENA and non-EU accession countries is negative. Candidacy to EU membership is considered as a driving force for stronger commitment and more serious reforms that may have led to the positive effect of FDI on growth.

An Investigation into the Labor Market Behavior and Characteristics of Emirati Unemployed

The strong and robust growth of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) over the past decade has significantly raised the standards of living in the country, and has created remarkable economic and social transformations. However, there is some concern that strong output growth has yet to translate into an equivalent growth of jobs for UAE citizens, particularly outside the public sector and among young nationals. A careful estimate shows that the number of unemployed Emiratis by the end of 2011 is 34750, of which 72 percent are women, and 65 percent are youth. Among the youth, the percentage of unemployed females is 70 percent. In 2010 the Emirati unemployment rate was estimated at 14 percent; 8 percent among males and 28 percent among females. In 2011, the unemployment rate is estimated at 12.8%; the highest unemployment rate is in Al Fujairah (19.5%) followed by Abu Dhabi (15.1%) and the lowest rate estimated in Dubai at 7%

Duration of Stay of Expatriates in the UAE

Shares of expatriates of total population in the UAE have been consistently on the rise. It is widely believed that the very high number of expatriates is the main cause of the imbalance in the population structure in the country. In addition, increasing numbers of expatriates from certain regions may imply possible risks related to security, social and economic conditions in the country. This research aims at looking at the possibilities of implementing a system in which duration of stay of expatriate workers in the UAE labor market is limited to a maximum number of years. In particular, the research intends to provide an overview of duration of stay of expatriates in the UAE in relation to nationalities, occupations, sectors, skills and educational levels and to supply a number of scenarios which can be implemented in the UAE and the pros and cons of each scenario in terms economic and demographic factors

Does export composition matter for economic growth in the United Arab Emirates?

This paper examines the export diversification process and the causality between disaggregated manufactured exports and economic growth in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The study develops a model whereby domestic investments, gross domestic product, as well as disaggregated manufactured exports and imports of goods and services, are considered. The results show that chemicals and related products cause short-run economic growth, while a bi-directional causality exists between machinery and transport equipment exports and economic growth both in the short and long run. Therefore, the shift to machinery and transport equipment exports contributes to long-run, sustainable economic growth in the UAE

How well do U.S. consumers predict the direction of change in interest rates?

The Michigan survey asks U.S. consumers about their 1-year expected directional change in interest rates. For 1978-1983 when interest rates are volatile, we find a strong association between the actual and predicted changes, with no asymmetry (the proportions of incorrectly predicted upward and downward moves are statistically the same.) For 1984-2005 when interest rates are relatively stable, we find asymmetry (consumers do not accurately predict the downward moves in interest rates.) We conclude that consumer borrowing based on such expectations can undermine monetary policy effectiveness, depending both on the directional change in policy and interest rate volatility.Directional predictions Michigan survey Mortgage rate Prime rate Economically rational expectations Asymmetric loss function