Author Reply : The relationship between alcohol intake and falls

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Body Mass Index, Smoking, and Alcohol and Risks of Barrett’s Esophagus and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma: A UK Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: The timing of the risk factors cigarette smoking, alcohol and obesity in the development of Barrett’s esophagus (BE) and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) is unclear. AIMS: To investigate these exposures in the aetiology of BE and EAC in the same population. METHODS: The cohort included 24,068 men and women, aged 39–79 years, recruited between 1993 and 1997 into the prospective EPIC-Norfolk Study who provided information on anthropometry, smoking and alcohol intake. The cohort was monitored until December 2008 and incident cases identified. RESULTS: One hundred and four participants were diagnosed with BE and 66 with EAC. A body mass index (BMI) above 23 kg/m(2) was associated with a greater risk of BE [BMI ≥23 vs. 18.5 to <23, hazard ratio (HR) 3.73, 95 % CI 1.37–10.16], and within a normal BMI, the risk was greater in the higher category (HR 3.76, 95 % CI 1.30–10.85, BMI 23–25 vs. 18.5 to >23 kg/m(2)). Neither smoking nor alcohol intake were associated with risk for BE. For EAC, all BMI categories were associated with risk, although statistically significant for only the highest (BMI >35 vs. BMI 18.5 to <23, HR 4.95, 95 % CI 1.11–22.17). The risk was greater in the higher category of a normal BMI (HR 2.73, 95 % CI 0.93–8.00, p = 0.07, BMI 23–25 vs. 18.5 to >23 kg/m(2)). There was an inverse association with ≥7 units alcohol/week (HR 0.51, 95 % CI 0.29–0.88) and with wine (HR 0.49, 95 % CI 0.23–1.04, p = 0.06, drinkers vs. non-drinkers). CONCLUSIONS: Obesity may be involved early in carcinogenesis and the association with EAC and wine should be explored. The data have implications for aetiological investigations and prevention strategies

The Relationship Between Cognitive Performance Using Tests Assessing a Range of Cognitive Domains and Future Dementia Diagnosis in a British Cohort: A Ten-Year Prospective Study.

BACKGROUND: Exploring the domains of cognitive function which are most strongly associated with future dementia may help with understanding risk factors for, and the natural history of dementia. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association of performance on a range of cognitive tests (both global and domain specific) with subsequent diagnosis of dementia through health services in a population of relatively healthy men and women and risk of future dementia. METHODS: We examined the association between performance on different cognitive tests as well as a global score and future dementia risk ascertained through health record linkage in a cohort of 8,581 individuals (aged 48-92 years) between 2004-2019 with almost 15 years follow-up (average of 10 years) before and after adjustment for socio-demographic, lifestyle, and health characteristics. RESULTS: Those with poor performance for global cognition (bottom 10%) were almost four times as likely to receive a dementia diagnosis from health services over the next 15 years than those who performed well HR = 3.51 (95% CI 2.61, 4.71 p < 0.001) after adjustment for socioeconomic, lifestyle, and biological factors and also prevalent disease. Poor cognition performance in multiple tests was associated with 10-fold increased risk compared to those not performing poorly in any test HR = 10.82 (95% CI 6.85, 17.10 p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Deficits across multiple cognitive domains substantially increase risk of future dementia over and above neuropsychological test scores ten years prior to a clinical diagnosis. These findings may help further understanding of the natural history of dementia and how such measures could contribute to strengthening future models of dementia.This work was supported by the Medical Research Council, UK (MRC) http://www.mrc.ac.uk/ (Ref: MR/N003284/1) Cancer Research UK http://www.cancerresearchuk. org/ (CRUK, Ref: C864/A8257) and NIHR https://www.nihr.ac.uk (Ref: NF-SI-0616-10090 to [CB]). The clinic for EPIC- Norfolk 3HC was funded by Research into Aging, now known as Age UK http://www.ageuk.org.uk/ (Grant Ref: 262). The pilot phase was supported by MRC (Ref: G9502233) and CRUK (Ref: C864/ A2883)

Cross-sectional and prospective relationship between occupational and leisure time inactivity and cognitive function in an ageing population. The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition in Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk) Study.

Background: The current evidence for higher physical activity and better cognitive function and lower risk of dementia is strong but not conclusive. More robust evidence is needed to inform public health policy. We provide further insight to discrepancies observed across studies, reporting on habitual inactivity including that during work. Methods: We examined cross-sectional and prospective relationships of physical inactivity during leisure and occupation time, with cognitive performance using a validated physical activity index in a cohort of 8585 men and women aged 40-79 years at baseline (1993-1997) for different domains using a range of cognitive measures. Cognitive testing was conducted between 2006-2011 (including pilot phase 2004-2006). Associations were examined using multinomial logistic regression adjusting for socio-demographic and health variables as well total habitual physical activity. Results: Inactivity during work was inversely associated with poor cognitive performance (bottom tenth percentile of a composite cognition score); Odds Ratio (OR) = 0·68 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.54, 0·86) P=0·001. Results were similar cross-sectionally; OR = 0·65 (95% CI 0·45, 0·93) P=0·02. Manual workers had increased risk of poor performance compared to those with an occupation classified as inactive. Inactivity during leisure time was associated with increased risk of poor performance in the cross-sectional analyses only. Conclusions: The relationship between inactivity and cognition is strongly confounded by education, social class and occupation. Physical activity during leisure may be protective for cognition, but work related physical activity is not protective. A greater understanding of the mechanisms and confounding underlying these paradoxical findings is needed.This work was supported by the Medical Research Council, UK (MRC) http://www.mrc.ac.uk/ (Ref: MR/N003284/1, MC-UU_12015/1 to N.W.); Cancer Research UK, http://www.cancerresearchuk.org/ (CRUK, Ref: C864/A8257) and NIHR, https://www.nihr.ac.uk (Ref: NF-SI-0616–10090 to C.B.). The clinic for EPIC- orfolk 3HC was funded by Research into Ageing, now known as Age UK, http://www.ageuk.org.uk/ (Grant Ref: 262). The pilot phase was supported by MRC (Ref: G9502233) and CRUK (Ref: C864/A2883

Physical activity trajectories and mortality: population based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the prospective associations of baseline and long term trajectories of physical activity on mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer. DESIGN: Population based cohort study. SETTING: Adults from the general population in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: 14 599 men and women (aged 40 to 79) from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Norfolk cohort, assessed at baseline (1993 to 1997) up to 2004 for lifestyle and other risk factors; then followed to 2016 for mortality (median of 12.5 years of follow-up, after the last exposure assessment). MAIN EXPOSURE: Physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) derived from questionnaires, calibrated against combined movement and heart rate monitoring. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer. Multivariable proportional hazards regression models were adjusted for age, sex, sociodemographics, and changes in medical history, overall diet quality, body mass index, blood pressure, triglycerides, and cholesterol levels. RESULTS: During 171 277 person years of follow-up, 3148 deaths occurred. Long term increases in PAEE were inversely associated with mortality, independent of baseline PAEE. For each 1 kJ/kg/day per year increase in PAEE (equivalent to a trajectory of being inactive at baseline and gradually, over five years, meeting the World Health Organization minimum physical activity guidelines of 150 minutes/week of moderate-intensity physical activity), hazard ratios were: 0.76 (95% confidence interval 0.71 to 0.82) for all cause mortality, 0.71 (0.62 to 0.82) for cardiovascular disease mortality, and 0.89 (0.79 to 0.99) for cancer mortality, adjusted for baseline PAEE, and established risk factors. Similar results were observed when analyses were stratified by medical history of cardiovascular disease and cancer. Joint analyses with baseline and trajectories of physical activity show that, compared with consistently inactive individuals, those with increasing physical activity trajectories over time experienced lower risks of mortality from all causes, with hazard ratios of 0.76 (0.65 to 0.88), 0.62 (0.53 to 0.72), and 0.58 (0.43 to 0.78) at low, medium, and high baseline physical activity, respectively. At the population level, meeting and maintaining at least the minimum physical activity recommendations would potentially prevent 46% of deaths associated with physical inactivity. CONCLUSIONS: Middle aged and older adults, including those with cardiovascular disease and cancer, can gain substantial longevity benefits by becoming more physically active, irrespective of past physical activity levels and established risk factors. Considerable population health impacts can be attained with consistent engagement in physical activity during mid to late life.The EPIC-Norfolk study is supported by programme grants from the Medical Research CouncilandCancer Research UKwith additional support from the Stroke Association, British Heart Foundation, Department of Health, Food Standards Agency, and the Wellcome Trust. Alexander Mok was supported by the National Science Scholarship from Singapore, A*STAR (Agency for Science, Technology and Research).The work of Nick Wareham and Soren Brage was funded by the Medical Research Council UK [MC_UU_12015/1 and MC_UU_12015/3].The funders had no role in the study design; the collection, analysis, and interpretation of data; the writing of the manuscript; or the decision to submit the article for publication

Sociodemographic and lifestyle predictors of incident hospital admissions with multimorbidity in a general population, 1999-2019: the EPIC-Norfolk cohort.

BACKGROUND:The ageing population and prevalence of long-term disorders with multimorbidity are a major health challenge worldwide. The associations between comorbid conditions and mortality risk are well established; however, few prospective community-based studies have reported on prior risk factors for incident hospital admissions with multimorbidity. We aimed to explore the independent associations for a range of demographic, lifestyle and physiological determinants and the likelihood of subsequent hospital incident multimorbidity. METHODS:We examined incident hospital admissions with multimorbidity in 25 014 men and women aged 40-79 in a British prospective population-based study recruited in 1993-1997 and followed up until 2019. The determinants of incident multimorbidity, defined as Charlson Comorbidity Index ≥3, were investigated using multivariable logistic regression models for the 10-year period 1999-2009 and repeated with independent measurements in a second 10-year period 2009-2019. RESULTS:Between 1999 and 2009, 18 179 participants (73% of the population) had a hospital admission. Baseline 5-year and 10-year incident multimorbidities were observed in 6% and 12% of participants, respectively. Age per 10-year increase (OR 2.19, 95% CI 2.06 to 2.33) and male sex (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.47) predicted incident multimorbidity over 10 years. In the subset free of the most serious diseases at baseline, current smoking (OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.60 to 2.15), body mass index >30 kg/m² (OR 1.48, 95% CI 1.30 to 1.70) and physical inactivity (OR 1.16, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.29) were positively associated and plasma vitamin C (a biomarker of plant food intake) per SD increase (OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.91) inversely associated with incident 10-year multimorbidity after multivariable adjustment for age, sex, social class, education, alcohol consumption, systolic blood pressure and cholesterol. Results were similar when re-examined for a further time period in 2009-2019. CONCLUSION:Age, male sex and potentially modifiable lifestyle behaviours including smoking, body mass index, physical inactivity and low fruit and vegetable intake were associated with increased risk of future incident hospital admissions with multimorbidity