Modern Insights into the Policies affecting Public Health in the Islamic Caliphate (622CE – 1258CE)

Background/aim: In the Western world, the emergence of historical research on the effects of the social determinants of health has provided the discipline of public health with new insight into this aspect of population health complementing the more traditional focus on the history of medicine. The Islamic Caliphate was a dominant power in its time and little is known about its public health history. This thesis aims to provide a chronologically historical account of the policies taken in this period and analyse them in the light of modern theories of public health. Materials and Methods: This thesis employed a qualitative research technique. Known primary and secondary historical sources were examined and data translated and presented in a chronological order. Modern historical sources analysing the historical accounts of that era were also used. Policies affecting health were retrieved and analysed using modern day research into the same policies. Results: The analysis has resulted in a revisionist argument that policies affecting public health in a positive way did exist in a sophisticated manner in the Islamic Caliphate albeit in an inconsistent manner. The study complements the works of medical historians who identified a “Golden Age” in the later era of the Caliphate with advancements in medical science with a potential “Golden Age” in the early era related to the social determinants of health. Conclusion: This thesis provides for the first time a chronological study of policies affecting public health in an era of public health history that has not been studied before. In addition it provides for the first time a modern analysis of these policies

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundDisorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.MethodsWe estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.FindingsGlobally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.InterpretationAs the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed

Bridging the gap: functional healing of embryonic small intestine ex vivo.

The ability to grow embryonic organs ex vivo provides an opportunity to follow their differentiation in a controlled environment, with resulting insights into normal development. Additionally, similar strategies can be used to assess effects on organogenesis of physical and chemical manipulations. This study aimed to create an organ culture model with which to test physical manipulations to enhance healing of gut segments, thus generating a single functional organ. Embryonic mouse jejunum was isolated and cut into 2–3 mm tubes, which were placed in pairs, separated by a small gap, on semi‐permeable supports. Each pair was linked by a nylon suture threaded through their lumens. After 3 days in organ culture fed by defined serum‐free media, the rudiments differentiated to form tubes of smooth muscle surrounding a core of rudimentary villi. Of 34 such pairs, 74% had touching and well aligned proximate ends. Of these joined structures, 80% (59% of the total pairs) had a continuous lumen, as assessed by observing the trajectories of fluorescent dextrans injected into their distal ends. Fused organ pairs formed a single functional unit, as assessed by spontaneous contraction waves propagated along their lengths. In these healed intestines, peripherin(+) neurons formed a nexus in the zone of fusion, linking the rudiment pairs. In future, this system could be used to test whether growth factors enhance fusion. Such results should in turn inform the design of novel treatments for short bowel syndrome, a potentially fatal condition with a currently limited and imperfect range of therapies. ©2015. The Authors Journal of Tissue Engineering and Regenerative Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons, Lt

Immune Profiling of COVID-19 in Correlation with SARS and MERS

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a major complication of the respiratory illness coronavirus disease 2019, with a death rate reaching up to 40%. The main underlying cause of ARDS is a cytokine storm that results in a dysregulated immune response. This review discusses the role of cytokines and chemokines in SARS-CoV-2 and its predecessors SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, with particular emphasis on the elevated levels of inflammatory mediators that are shown to be correlated with disease severity. For this purpose, we reviewed and analyzed clinical studies, research articles, and reviews published on PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science. This review illustrates the role of the innate and adaptive immune responses in SARS, MERS, and COVID-19 and identifies the general cytokine and chemokine profile in each of the three infections, focusing on the most prominent inflammatory mediators primarily responsible for the COVID-19 pathogenesis. The current treatment protocols or medications in clinical trials were reviewed while focusing on those targeting cytokines and chemokines. Altogether, the identified cytokines and chemokines profiles in SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, and SARS-CoV-2 provide important information to better understand SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis and highlight the importance of using prominent inflammatory mediators as markers for disease diagnosis and management. Our findings recommend that the use of immunosuppression cocktails provided to patients should be closely monitored and continuously assessed to maintain the desirable effects of cytokines and chemokines needed to fight the SARS, MERS, and COVID-19. The current gap in evidence is the lack of large clinical trials to determine the optimal and effective dosage and timing for a therapeutic regimen