Validation of three noninvasive laboratory variables to predict significant fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C in Saudi Arabia

<b>Background: </b>We tested the clinical utility of the platelet count, the aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase (AST/ALT) ratio, and the AST to platelet ratio index (APRI) score in predicting the presence or absence of advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C in Saudi Arabia. <b>Methods: </b>Liver biopsy procedures performed on chronic hepatitis C patients in our gastroenterology unit at King Khalid University Hospital were traced from records between the years 1998 to 2003. The hospital com--puter database was then accessed and detailed laboratory parameters obtained. By plotting receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC), three selected models (platelet count, AST/ALT ratio, and the APRI score) were compared in terms of the best variable to predict significant fibrosis. <b>Results: </b> Two hundred and forty-six patients with hepatitis C were included in this analysis. Overall, 26&#x0025; of patients had advanced fibrosis. When comparing the three above-mentioned prediction models, the APRI score was the one associated with the highest area under the curve (AUC) = 0.812 (95&#x0025; CI, 0.756-0.868) on the ROC curves, compared to the platelet count and AST/ALT ratio, which yielded an AUC of 0.783 (0.711-0.855) and 0.716 (0.642-0.789), respectively. <b>Conclusion: </b>The APRI score seemed to be the best predictive variable for the presence or absence of advanced fibrosis in Saudi hepatitis C patient

Sustained virologic response to peginterferon α-2a and ribavirin in 335 patients with chronic hepatitis C: A tertiary care center experience

BACKGROUND/AIM: This retrospective study assessed the efficacy, safety, and the predictors of sustained viral response (SVR) to a 48-week-course of peginterferon α-2a (Pegasys) and ribavirin combination therapy in 335 consecutive Saudi patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Clinical, biochemical, and virological parameters were collected at time 0 (pretreatment) and at 12, 24, 48, and 72 weeks posttreatment. The mean ± SD age was 49.1 ± 13.0 years; 229 (68.4%) were males, mean ± SD body mass index was 27.8 ± 7.4, 85 (25.4%) were diabetic, 25 (7.5%) had renal impairment, 136 (40.6%) had previously received interferon ± ribavirin therapy, and 247 (73.7%) underwent pretreatment liver biopsy. Patients with genotypes 1, 2 or 3, 4 and mixed genotype were 60 (22.15%), 30 (11.0%), 148 (54.4%), and 34 (12.5%), respectively. RESULTS: Early viral response (≥2-log10 HCV-RNA decline 12 weeks posttreatment) was achieved in 253 (75.3%). Patients who completed 48 weeks of treatment were 292 (87.1%); of these, 121 (75.6%) achieved ETVR, 161 (55.1%) continued to have SVR and 60 (20.5%) had a viral relapse following end-of-treatment response, that is 48.1 and 17.9% of all patients (n = 335), respectively. Nonresponders (NR) were 71 (24.3%) patients and 43 (12.8%) were unable to complete treatment (due to side effects or loss to follow up). Compared to the relapsers, patients with SVR were significantly younger (P = 0.000), nondiabetics (P = 0.015), had higher serum albumin (P = 0.007), had less pretreatment inflammatory grade (P = 0.011), infected with genotypes 2 or 3 (P = 0.014), and treatment-naïve patients (P = 0.001). However, in stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis, only treatment naiveté and low pretreatment inflammatory score were the independent predictors of SVR (P = 0.005 and P = 0.018, respectively). CONCLUSION: Combination therapy, if tolerated and completed, is effective in treating chronic HCV patients, especially those with no previous interferon therapy and lower pretreatment inflammatory grade

Epidemiology, disease burden, and treatment strategies of chronic hepatitis C virus infections in Saudi Arabia in the new treatment paradigm shift

Background/Aims: Around 101,000 individuals are estimated to be viremic for chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) in 2014; however, only about 20% have been diagnosed. We aim to assess baseline epidemiology, disease burden, and evaluate strategies to eliminate HCV in KSA. Materials and Methods: The infected population and disease progression were modeled using age- and gender-defined cohorts to track HCV incidence, prevalence, hepatic complications, and mortality. Baseline assumptions and transition probabilities were extracted from the literature. The impacts of two scenarios on HCV-related disease burden were considered through increases in treatment efficacy alone or treatment and diagnosis. Results: In 2030, it is estimated by the base scenario that viremic prevalence will increase to 103,000 cases, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) to 470, decompensated and compensated cirrhosis cases to 1,300 and 15,400, respectively, and liver-related mortality to 670 deaths. Using high efficacy treatment alone resulted in 2030 projection of 80,700 viremic cases, 350 HCC cases, 480 liver-related deaths, and 850 and 11,500 decompensated and compensated cirrhosis cases, respectively. With an aggressive treatment strategy, in 2030 there will be about 1,700 viremic cases, 1 HCC case, about 20 liver-related deaths, and 5 and 130 cases of decompensated and compensated cirrhosis, respectively. Delaying this strategy by one year would result in 360 additional deaths by 2030. Conclusions: HCV in KSA remains constant, and cases of advanced liver disease and mortality continue to rise. Considered increases in treatment efficacy and number treated would have a significantly greater impact than increased treatment efficacy alone. The projected impact will facilitate disease forecasting, resource planning, and strategies for HCV management. Increased screening and diagnosis would likely be required as part of a national strategy