Estimating Fiscal Multipliers by Combining Statistical Identification with Potentially Endogenous Proxies

Different proxy variables used in fiscal policy SVARs lead to contradicting conclusions regarding the size of fiscal multipliers. In this paper, we show that the conflicting results are due to violations of the exogeneity assumptions, i.e. the commonly used proxies are endogenously related to the structural shocks. We propose a novel approach to include proxy variables into a Bayesian non-Gaussian SVAR, tailored to accommodate potentially endogenous proxy variables. Using our model, we show that increasing government spending is a more effective tool to stimulate the economy than reducing taxes. We construct new exogenous proxies that can be used in the traditional proxy VAR approach resulting in similar estimates compared to our proposed hybrid SVAR model.Comment: 10 figure

Traditionelle Boote in Deutschland. T. 7, Weidling und Weidlingbauer am Hochrhein

Since drawings of traditional boats are extremely rare, it was a remarkable circumstance that, in the context of the German Research Foundation’s research project "Pre-Industrial Water Vessels in the Rhine River Basin", four drawings of "Weidlings" - as the flat-bottomed boats of the High Rhine are called - could be secured for the German Maritime Museum Archive. Executed in 1948 and in the 1960s, the four drawings comprise two depictions each of the "Langweidling" (long Weidling) and the "Halblangweidling" (half-length Weidling). The 22 and 21-metre-long Langweidlings and the 16-metre-long Halbweidlings are narrow, flat-bottomed vessels with blunt-tipped, upward-curving bows and sterns. When the research was carried out in the 1980s, boats of this type were already no longer encountered. Boats referred to as "Fischerweidlings" or "Fahrweidlings" now represented the Weidling vessel type. In these vessels, the ratio between length and width had shifted distinctly in favour of the width. Many of these Weidlings ended at the stern with a transom board. Interviews with two Weidling builders - a synonym for boat builders in Switzerland - as well as participatory observation of their work provided further insights into the development of Weidling construction. The article comes to the conclusion that the vessels subsumed under the generic term "Weidling" have a small number of features in common: a flat bottom, carvel side planking and blunttipped bows and sterns. A special common feature of these boats is that they were rowed from a standing position. In shallow waters they were also propelled by punting

Die Gemälde "Flöße auf der Weichsel" von Friedrich Kallmorgen: ein Dokument zur Weichselflößerei und zur Geschichte des Holzhandels

Since 2006, the German Maritime Museum has had in its possession an oil painting entitled 'Rafts on the Vistula' by Friedrich Kallmorgen (1856-1924). A study of the painting has proven that it is a reliable and informative source on the history of rafting on the Vistula and the wood trade in the Vistula region before World War I. Back then, wood made its way from forests in Austrian Galicia and Russia to as far as Berlin by way of water, via the Vistula, Brda, Bromberg Canal, Warta, Oder, Finow Canal and Havel. The oeuvre catalogue of Kallmorgen's paintings and prints by Irene Eder lists our oil painting as 'Study from Thorn'. It will accordingly have been executed in connection with a five-part painting cycle commissioned by the wood merchant Max Francke of Berlin, who owned a sawmill in Karlsdorf near Bromberg and obtained wood from the Vistula region on a large scale. Kallmorgen had travelled to Thorn and Bromberg in 1901 with Francke, a brother-in-law of his brother’s, to carry out studies on rafting, raftsmen, and work in the sawmill. These initial studies were supplemented by further studies made on a journey of 1903. Oil studies like 'Rafts on the Vistula' then formed the basis for Kallmorgen's large-scale painting cycle 'From the Forest to the Mill' which hung in Francke's Berlin mansion. In the wood merchant’s house it served prestige purposes and showed visitors the business so successfully engaged in by their host. In addition to the one in Karlsdorf, Francke also owned sawmills in Berlin-Spandau and Marienwerder on the Finow Canal, all of which were seized by the National Socialists in 1938. The whereabouts of the large paintings has never been determined to this day. In the oeuvre catalogue, the words "owner unknown" follow the entries for the oil paintings 'The Mill in Spandau, Interior of the Mill in Karlsdorf near Bromberg, Forest Work in Galicia and Wood Loads on the Vistula'