Development and simulation of multi-diagnostic Bayesian analysis for 2D inference of divertor plasma characteristics

We present results of the design, implementation and testing of a Bayesian multi-diagnostic inference system which combines various divertor diagnostics to infer the 2D fields of electron temperature T e, density n e and deuterium neutral density n 0 in the divertor. The system was tested using synthetic diagnostic measurements derived from SOLPS-ITER fluid code predictions of the MAST-U Super-X divertor which include appropriate added noise. Two SOLPS-ITER simulations in different states of detachment, taken from a scan of the nitrogen seeding rate, were used as test-cases. Taken across both test-cases, the median absolute fractional errors in the inferred electron temperature and density estimates were 10.3% and 10.1% respectively. Differences between the inferred fields and the test-cases were well explained by solution uncertainty estimates derived from posterior sampling. This work represents a step toward a larger goal of obtaining a quantitative, 2D description of the divertor plasma state directly from experimental data, which could be used to gain better understanding of divertor physics phenomena

Carbon Monitoring System Flux Estimation and Attribution: Impact of ACOS-GOSAT X(CO2) Sampling on the Inference of Terrestrial Biospheric Sources and Sinks

Using an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE), we investigate the impact of JAXA Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite 'IBUKI' (GOSAT) sampling on the estimation of terrestrial biospheric flux with the NASA Carbon Monitoring System Flux (CMS-Flux) estimation and attribution strategy. The simulated observations in the OSSE use the actual column carbon dioxide (X(CO2)) b2.9 retrieval sensitivity and quality control for the year 2010 processed through the Atmospheric CO2 Observations from Space algorithm. CMS-Flux is a variational inversion system that uses the GEOS-Chem forward and adjoint model forced by a suite of observationally constrained fluxes from ocean, land and anthropogenic models. We investigate the impact of GOSAT sampling on flux estimation in two aspects: 1) random error uncertainty reduction and 2) the global and regional bias in posterior flux resulted from the spatiotemporally biased GOSAT sampling. Based on Monte Carlo calculations, we find that global average flux uncertainty reduction ranges from 25% in September to 60% in July. When aggregated to the 11 land regions designated by the phase 3 of the Atmospheric Tracer Transport Model Intercomparison Project, the annual mean uncertainty reduction ranges from 10% over North American boreal to 38% over South American temperate, which is driven by observational coverage and the magnitude of prior flux uncertainty. The uncertainty reduction over the South American tropical region is 30%, even with sparse observation coverage. We show that this reduction results from the large prior flux uncertainty and the impact of non-local observations. Given the assumed prior error statistics, the degree of freedom for signal is approx.1132 for 1-yr of the 74 055 GOSAT X(CO2) observations, which indicates that GOSAT provides approx.1132 independent pieces of information about surface fluxes. We quantify the impact of GOSAT's spatiotemporally sampling on the posterior flux, and find that a 0.7 gigatons of carbon bias in the global annual posterior flux resulted from the seasonally and diurnally biased sampling when using a diagonal prior flux error covariance

Satellite measurements of peroxyacetyl nitrate from the Cross-Track Infrared Sounder: comparison with ATom aircraft measurements

We present an overview of an optimal estimation algorithm to retrieve peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) from single-field-of-view Level 1B radiances measured by the Cross-Track Infrared Sounder (CrIS). CrIS PAN retrievals show peak sensitivity in the mid-troposphere, with degrees of freedom for signal less than or equal to 1.0. We show comparisons with two sets of aircraft measurements from the Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom), the PAN and Trace Hydrohalocarbon ExpeRiment (PANTHER) and the Georgia Tech chemical ionization mass spectrometer (GT-CIMS). We find a systematic difference between the two aircraft datasets, with vertically averaged mid-tropospheric values from the GT-CIMS around 14 % lower than equivalent values from PANTHER. However, the two sets of aircraft measurements are strongly correlated (R2 value of 0.92) and do provide a consistent view of the large-scale variation of PAN. We demonstrate that the retrievals of PAN from CrIS show skill in measurement of these large-scale PAN distributions in the remote mid-troposphere compared to the retrieval prior. The standard deviation of individual CrIS–aircraft differences is 0.08 ppbv, which we take as an estimate of the uncertainty of the CrIS mid-tropospheric PAN for a single satellite field of view. The standard deviation of the CrIS–aircraft comparisons for averaged CrIS retrievals (median of 20 satellite coincidences with each aircraft profile) is lower at 0.05 ppbv. This would suggest that the retrieval error is reduced with averaging, although not with the square root of the number of observations. We find a negative bias of the order of 0.1 ppbv in the CrIS PAN results with respect to the aircraft measurements. This bias shows a dependence on column water vapor. We provide a water-vapor-dependent bias correction for use with the CrIS PAN data.</p

Variant-Specific Viral Kinetics in Acute COVID-19

Understanding variant-specific differences in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral kinetics may explain differences in transmission efficiency and provide insights on pathogenesis and prevention. We evaluated SARS-CoV-2 kinetics from nasal swabs across multiple variants (Alpha, Delta, Epsilon, Gamma) in placebo recipients of the ACTIV-2/A5401 trial. Delta variant infection led to the highest maximum viral load and shortest time from symptom onset to viral load peak. There were no significant differences in time to viral clearance across the variants. Viral decline was biphasic with first- and second-phase decays having half-lives of 11 hours and 2.5 days, respectively, with differences among variants, especially in the second phase. These results suggest that while variant-specific differences in viral kinetics exist, post-peak viral load all variants appeared to be efficiently cleared by the host. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT04518410

Marketing Actions and the Value of Customer Assets: A Framework for Customer Asset Management

This article develops a framework for assessing how marketing actions affect customers’lifetime value to the firm. The framework is organized around four critical actions that firms must take to effectively manage the asset value of the customer base: database creation, market segmentation, forecasting customer purchase behavior, and resource allocation. In this framework, customer lifetime value is treated as a dynamic construct, that is, it influences the eventual allocation of marketing resources but is also influenced by that allocation. By viewing customers as assets and systematically managing these assets, a firm can identify the most appropriate marketing actions to acquire, maintain, and enhance customer assets and thereby maximize financial returns. The article discusses in detail how to assess customer lifetime value and manage customers as assets. Then, it identifies key research challenges in studying customer asset management and the managerial challenges associated with implementing effective customer asset management practices.Yeshttps://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/manuscript-submission-guideline

Forward Modeling of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide in GEOS-5: Uncertainties Related to Surface Fluxes and Sub-Grid Transport

Forward GEOS-5 AGCM simulations of CO2, with transport constrained by analyzed meteorology for 2009-2010, are examined. The CO2 distributions are evaluated using AIRS upper tropospheric CO2 and ACOS-GOSAT total column CO2 observations. Different combinations of surface C02 fluxes are used to generate ensembles of runs that span some uncertainty in surface emissions and uptake. The fluxes are specified in GEOS-5 from different inventories (fossil and biofuel), different data-constrained estimates of land biological emissions, and different data-constrained ocean-biology estimates. One set of fluxes is based on the established "Transcom" database and others are constructed using contemporary satellite observations to constrain land and ocean process models. Likewise, different approximations to sub-grid transport are employed, to construct an ensemble of CO2 distributions related to transport variability. This work is part of NASA's "Carbon Monitoring System Flux Pilot Project,

Genomic, Pathway Network, and Immunologic Features Distinguishing Squamous Carcinomas

This integrated, multiplatform PanCancer Atlas study co-mapped and identified distinguishing molecular features of squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs) from five sites associated with smokin

Lilliput

Catalog for the exhibition Lilliput held at the Seton Hall University Walsh Gallery, June 8 - July 24, 2009. Curated by Jeanne Brasile and Asha Ganpat. Includes an essay by Jeanne Brasile and Asha Ganpat. Includes color illustrations

Pan-Cancer Analysis of lncRNA Regulation Supports Their Targeting of Cancer Genes in Each Tumor Context

Long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) are commonly dys-regulated in tumors, but only a handful are known toplay pathophysiological roles in cancer. We inferredlncRNAs that dysregulate cancer pathways, onco-genes, and tumor suppressors (cancer genes) bymodeling their effects on the activity of transcriptionfactors, RNA-binding proteins, and microRNAs in5,185 TCGA tumors and 1,019 ENCODE assays.Our predictions included hundreds of candidateonco- and tumor-suppressor lncRNAs (cancerlncRNAs) whose somatic alterations account for thedysregulation of dozens of cancer genes and path-ways in each of 14 tumor contexts. To demonstrateproof of concept, we showed that perturbations tar-geting OIP5-AS1 (an inferred tumor suppressor) andTUG1 and WT1-AS (inferred onco-lncRNAs) dysre-gulated cancer genes and altered proliferation ofbreast and gynecologic cancer cells. Our analysis in-dicates that, although most lncRNAs are dysregu-lated in a tumor-specific manner, some, includingOIP5-AS1, TUG1, NEAT1, MEG3, and TSIX, synergis-tically dysregulate cancer pathways in multiple tumorcontexts

Monte Carlo of Trapped Ultracold Neutrons in the UCNτ Trap

In the UCNτ experiment, ultracold neutrons (UCN) are confined by magnetic fields and the Earth’s gravitational field. Field-trapping mitigates the problem of UCN loss on material surfaces, which caused the largest correction in prior neutron experiments using material bottles. However, the neutron dynamics in field traps differ qualitatively from those in material bottles. In the latter case, neutrons bounce off material surfaces with significant diffusivity and the population quickly reaches a static spatial distribution with a density gradient induced by the gravitational potential. In contrast, the field-confined UCN—whose dynamics can be described by Hamiltonian mechanics—do not exhibit the stochastic behaviors typical of an ideal gas model as observed in material bottles. In this report, we will describe our efforts to simulate UCN trapping in the UCNτ magneto-gravitational trap. We compare the simulation output to the experimental results to determine the parameters of the neutron detector and the input neutron distribution. The tuned model is then used to understand the phase space evolution of neutrons observed in the UCNτ experiment. We will discuss the implications of chaotic dynamics on controlling the systematic effects, such as spectral cleaning and microphonic heating, for a successful UCN lifetime experiment to reach a 0.01% level of precision