War and Welfare: Britain, France and the United States 1807-14

This paper assesses the relative welfare costs of the various embargos and blockades of the years 1807-1814 in three countries: Britain, France and the United States. Relative price evidence indicates that these blockades and embargos did restrict trade, and that britain was less severely affected than her rivals. Benchmark welfare estimates for the United States are particularly high, at roughly 5% per annum. While absolute welfare estimates depend on elasticity assumptions, the US unambiguously came out worst in these disputes, and Britain almost surely suffered lower losses than France as well.

Heckscher-Ohlin Theory and Individual Attitudes Towards Globalization

The aim of the paper is to see whether individuals’ attitudes towards globalization are consistent with the predictions of Heckscher-Ohlin theory. The theory predicts that the impact of being skilled or unskilled on attitudes towards trade and immigration should depend on a country’s skill endowments, with the skilled being less anti-trade and antiimmigration in more skill-abundant countries (here taken to be richer countries) than in more unskilled-labour-abundant countries (here taken to be poorer countries). These predictions are confirmed, using survey data for 24 countries. The high-skilled are pro-globalization in rich countries; while in some of the very poorest countries in the sample being high-skilled has a negative (if statistically insignificant) impact on pro-globalization sentiment. More generally, an interaction term between skills and GDP per capita has a negative impact in regressions explaining anti-globalization sentiment. Furthermore, individuals view protectionism and anti-immigrant policies as complements rather than as substitutes, as they would do in a simple Heckscher-Ohlin worldglobalization, attitudes, survey data, Hecksher-Ohlin theory.

Heckscher-Ohlin Theory and Individual Attitudes Towards GlobalisationInternational Financial Integration

The aim of the paper is to see whether individuals' attitudes towards globalisation are consistent with the predictions of Heckscher-Ohlin theory. The theory predicts that the impact of being skilled or unskilled on attitudes towards trade and immigration should depend on a country's skill endowments, with the skilled being less anti-trade and anti-immigration in more skill-abundant countries (here taken to be richer countries) than in more unskilled-labour-abundant countries (here taken to be poorer countries). These predictions are confirmed, using survey data for 24 countries. The high-skilled are pro-globalisation in rich countries; while in some of the very poorest countries in the sample being high-skilled has a negative (if statistically insignificant) impact on pro-globalisation sentiment. More generally, an interaction term between skills and GDP per capita has a negative impact in regressions explaining anti-globalisation sentiment. Furthermore, individuals view protectionism and anti-immigration policies as complements rather than as substitutes, as they would do in a simple Heckscher-Ohlin world.

Europe and the causes of globalization, 1790 to 2000

Forthcoming in H. Kierzkowski (ed.), From Europeanization of the Globe to the Globalization of Europe (Palgrave, 2002).

Power and Plenty: Trade, War and the World Economy in the Second Millennium (Preface)

This book provides the first systematic, integrated, analytical account of the evolution of the international economy during the last millennium. It emphasizes the two-way interaction between trade and geopolitics, and the importance of such interactions for world economic development.

Italy and the first age of globalization, 1861-1940

The paper presents trade policy as in line with that of other continental European powers, with a move to moderate levels of tariff protection for politically sensitive sectors such as steel and textiles and clothing, but also in agriculture, with levels of protection falling slightly before the First World War. Monetary policy was similarly driven by the constraints of capital scarcity, and by the political priority attached to reducing the cost of funding government debt. The most innovative area was probably in industrial policy, where after the 1880s and again in the 1930s in response to sever shocks, quite creative institutional policies were adopted. In particular financial restructuring was used as an opportunity to reshape the structure of industry.Comparative Economic History, Industrial Policy, Monetary Policy, Monetary Regime,Trade Policy