Self-similarity of seismic moment release to volume change scaling for volcanoes: a comparison with injection-induced seismicity

Estimates of intruded magma volume are critical for forecasting volcanic unrest. Geodetic modeling can provide such estimates but is of limited use in submarine and highly vegetated settings. A complementary approach could be to use estimates of seismic moment release. In this study, we examine the moment-volume scaling of several proximal volcanic earthquake sequences and compare it to that of injection-induced seismicity. We find a notable similarity in scaling between the volcanic sequences, which contrasts with the broad range of responses exhibited by anthropogenic injection-induced sequences. This may imply an underlying similarity in the geologic conditions for volcanoes that is distinct from induced seismicity settings. It could also allow for estimates of intruded volume to be made without geodetic information. This provides further insight into the factors controlling seismogenesis in these different settings and has implications for volcano seismology and injection-induced seismicity hazard estimation

Real time imaging, forecasting and management of human-induced seismicity at Preston New Road, Lancashire, England

Earthquakes induced by subsurface fluid injection pose a significant issue across a range of industries. Debate continues as to the most effective methods to mitigate the resulting seismic hazard. Observations of induced seismicity indicate that the rate of seismicity scales with the injection volume and that events follow the Gutenberg-Richter distribution. These two inferences permit us to populate statistical models of the seismicity and extrapolate them to make forecasts of the expected event magnitudes as injection continues. Here, we describe a shale gas site where this approach was used in real time to make operational decisions during hydraulic fracturing operations. Microseismic observations revealed the intersection between hydraulic fracturing and a pre-existing fault or fracture network that became seismically active. Although "red light" events, requiring a pause to the injection program, occurred on several occasions, the observed event magnitudes fell within expected levels based on the extrapolated statistical models, and the levels of seismicity remained within acceptable limits as defined by the regulator. To date, induced seismicity has typically been regulated using retroactive traffic light schemes. This study shows that the use of high-quality microseismic observations to populate statistical models that forecast expected event magnitudes can provide a more effective approach

High resolution imaging of the M​L​ 2.9 August 2019 earthquake in Lancashire, UK, induced by hydraulic fracturing during Preston New Road PNR-2 operations

Hydraulic fracturing (HF) at Preston New Road (PNR), Lancashire, United Kingdom, in August 2019, induced a number of felt earthquakes. The largest event (⁠ML 2.9) occurred on 26 August 2019, approximately three days after HF operations at the site had stopped. Following this, in November 2019, the United Kingdom Government announced a moratorium on HF for shale gas in England. Here we provide an analysis of the microseismic observations made during this case of HF‐induced fault activation. More than 55,000 microseismic events were detected during operations using a downhole array, the vast majority measuring less than Mw 0. Event locations revealed the growth of hydraulic fractures and their interaction with several preexisting structures. The spatiotemporal distribution of events suggests that a hydraulic pathway was created between the injection points and a nearby northwest–southeast‐striking fault, on which the largest events occurred. The aftershocks of the ML 2.9 event clearly delineate the rupture plane, with their spatial distribution forming a halo of activity around the mainshock rupture area. Across clusters of events, the magnitude distributions are distinctly bimodal, with a lower Gutenberg–Richter b‐value for events above Mw 0, suggesting a break in scaling between events associated with hydraulic fracture propagation, and events associated with activation of the fault. This poses a challenge for mitigation strategies that rely on extrapolating microseismicity observed during injection to forecast future behavior. The activated fault was well oriented for failure in the regional stress field, significantly more so than the fault activated during previous operations at PNR in 2018. The differing orientations within the stress field likely explain why this PNR‐2 fault produced larger events compared with the 2018 sequence, despite receiving a smaller volume of injected fluid. This indicates that fault orientation and in situ stress conditions play a key role in controlling the severity of seismicity induced by HF

Investigating the role of elastostatic stress transfer during hydraulic fracturing-induced fault activation

We investigate the physical processes that generate seismicity during hydraulic fracturing. Fluid processes (increases in pore pressure and poroelastic stress) are often considered to be the primary drivers. However, some recent studies have suggested that elastic stress interactions may significantly contribute to further seismicity. In this work we use a microseismic data set acquired during hydraulic fracturing to calculate elastic stress transfer during a period of fault activation and induced seismicity. We find that elastic stress changes may have weakly promoted initial failure, but at later times stress changes generally acted to inhibit further slip. Sources from within tight clusters are found to be the most significant contributor to the cumulative elastic stress changes. Given the estimated in situ stress field, relatively large increases in pore pressure are required to reach the failure envelope for these faults - on the order of 10 MPa. This threshold is far greater than the reliable cumulative elastic stress changes found in this study, with the vast majority of events receiving no more than 0.1 MPa of positive ΔCFS, further indicating that elastic stress changes were not a significant driver, and that interaction with the pressurized fluid was required to initiate failure. Thus, cumulative stress transfer from small events near the injection well does not appear to play a significant role in the reactivation of nearby faults

What do we need to know to safely store CO2 beneath our shelf seas? Stakeholder workshop report

This report summarises the content and discussion of an Agile Initiative workshop held at the University of Oxford on March 1st 2024, discussing “what do we need to know to safely store CO2 in our UK continental shelf seas?

A unified earthquake catalogue for the North Sea to derisk European CCS operations

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is essential to European decarbonisation efforts, and several offshore CO2 storage projects are being developed in the North Sea. Understanding the geomechanical response to CO2 injection is key to both the pre-characterisation and operation of a storage reservoir. A thorough assessment of seismicity gives critical insights into the stress field and faulting around reservoirs, both key controls on the geomechanical response to injection. Seismicity also illuminates potential hydraulic pathways for leakage, be it directly by revealing the extent of faults, or indirectly through fractures imaged by measurements of seismic anisotropy. High quality seismicity data is critical to underpin all of these methods of analysis. This paper presents the most complete catalogue of seismicity in the North Sea to date. The combined data are enabling revised assessments of seismic hazard and leakage risk in the North Sea, as well as a better understanding of faulting and stress. This study shows the value of unifying disparate seismicity data, allowing for more accurate seismological analyses. These lay the foundation for better management of risks for not only geologic CO2 storage, but other offshore industries and infrastructure