Applying Occam's razor to global agricultural land use change

We present a parsimonious agricultural land-use model that is designed to replicate global land-use change while allowing the exploration of uncertainties in input parameters. At the global scale, the modelled uncertainty range of agricultural land-use change covers observed land-use change. Spatial patterns of cropland change at the country level are simulated less satisfactorily, but temporal trends of cropland change in large agricultural nations were replicated by the model. A variance-based global sensitivity analysis showed that uncertainties in the input parameters representing to consumption preferences are important for changes in global agricultural areas. However, uncertainties in technological change had the largest effect on cereal yields and changes in global agricultural area. Uncertainties related to technological change in developing countries were most important for modelling the extent of cropland. The performance of the model suggests that highly generalised representations of socio-economic processes can be used to replicate global land-use change

A randomized controlled trial comparing intensive non-surgical treatment with bariatric surgery in adolescents aged 13-16 years (AMOS2): Rationale, study design, and patient recruitment.

BACKGROUND: Previous non-randomized studies show similar outcomes in adolescents and adults after bariatric surgery. We describe the study protocol, recruitment, and selected baseline data of patients in a randomized multi-center study, the Adolescent Morbid Obesity Surgery 2 (AMOS2). METHODS: Three clinics in Sweden collaborated in designing the study and recruitment of patients from August 1, 2014 to June 30, 2017. Patients were selected among adolescents 13-16 years of age attending third-level obesity care for at least one year. Patients were randomized 1:1 to bariatric surgery (predominantly Roux-en-Y gastric bypass) or intensive non-surgical treatment starting with an eight-week low-calorie-diet. RESULTS: Fifty adolescents (37 girls) were randomized, 25 (19 girls) to bariatric surgery. Mean age was 15.7 years (range 13.3-16.9), weight 122.6 kg (range 95-183.3), Body Mass Index (BMI) 42.6 kg/m2 (range 35.7-54.9) and BMI-SDS 3.45 (range 2.9-4.1). One patient had type 2 diabetes mellitus, and 12/45 (27%) had elevated liver enzymes. There were no significant differences between the groups. For the 39 eligible patients who were offered but declined inclusion, BMI was not different from included patients. However, patients who declined were younger, 15.2 years (p = 0.021). A sex difference was also noted with more of eligible girls, 37/53 (69.8%), than boys, 13/36 (36.1%), wanting to participate in the study (p = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: This clinical trial, randomizing adolescents with severe obesity to bariatric surgery or intensive non-surgical treatment, aims at informing about whether it is beneficial to undergo bariatric surgery in early adolescence. It will also enlighten the outcome of comprehensive non-surgical treatment. The study was registered at www.clinicalTrials.gov number NCT02378259

Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

We present a modelling framework to simulate probabilistic futures of global cropland areas that are conditional on the SSP (shared socio-economic pathway) scenarios. Simulations are based on the Parsimonious Land Use Model (PLUM) linked with the global dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) using socio-economic data from the SSPs and climate data from the RCPs (representative concentration pathways). The simulated range of global cropland is 893-2380 Mha in 2100 (± 1 standard deviation), with the main uncertainties arising from differences in the socio-economic conditions prescribed by the SSP scenarios and the assumptions that underpin the translation of qualitative SSP storylines into quantitative model input parameters. Uncertainties in the assumptions for population growth, technological change and cropland degradation were found to be the most important for global cropland, while uncertainty in food consumption had less influence on the results. The uncertainties arising from climate variability and the differences between climate change scenarios do not strongly affect the range of global cropland futures. Some overlap occurred across all of the conditional probabilistic futures, except for those based on SSP3. We conclude that completely different socio-economic and climate change futures, although sharing low to medium population development, can result in very similar cropland areas on the aggregated global scale

Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison

Model-based global projections of future land use and land cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socio-economic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g. boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process as well as improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity

Parents' assessment of parent-child interaction interventions – a longitudinal study in 101 families

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The aim of the study was to describe families with small children who participated in parent-child interaction interventions at four centres in Sweden, and to examine long term and short term changes regarding the parents' experience of parental stress, parental attachment patterns, the parents' mental health and life satisfaction, the parents' social support and the children's problems.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this longitudinal study a consecutive sample of 101 families (94 mothers and 54 fathers) with 118 children (median age 3 years) was assessed, using self-reports, at the outset of the treatment (T1), six months later (T2) and 18 months after the beginning of treatment (T3). Analysis of the observed differences was carried out using Wilcoxon's Signed-Rank test and Cohen's d.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The results from commencement of treatment showed that the parents had considerable problems in all areas examined. At the outset of treatment (T1) the mothers showed a higher level of problem load than the fathers on almost all scales. In the families where the children's problems have also been measured (children from the age of four) it appeared that they had problems of a nature and degree otherwise found in psychiatric populations. We found a clear general trend towards a positive development from T1 to T2 and this development was also reinforced from T2 to T3. Aggression in the child was one of the most common causes for contact. There were few undesired or unplanned interruptions of the treatment, and the attrition from the study was low.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study has shown that it is possible to reach mothers as well as fathers with parenting problems and to create an intervention program with very low dropout levels – which is of special importance for families with small children displaying aggressive behaviour. The parents taking part in this study showed clear improvement trends after six months and this development was reinforced a year later. This study suggests the necessity of clinical development and future research concerning the role of fathers in parent-child interaction interventions.</p

Drivers for global agricultural land use change: The nexus of diet, population, yield and bioenergy

The nexus of population growth and changing diets has increased the demands placed on agriculture to supply food for human consumption, animal feed and fuel. Rising incomes lead to dietary changes, from staple crops, towards commodities with greater land requirements, e.g. meat and dairy products. Despite yield improvements partially offsetting increases in demand, agricultural land has still been expanding, causing potential harm to ecosystems, e.g. through deforestation. We use country-level panel data (1961-2011) to allocate the land areas used to produce food for human consumption, waste and biofuels, and to attribute the food production area changes to diet, population and yields drivers. The results show that the production of animal products dominates agricultural land use and land use change over the 50-year period, accounting for 65% of land use change. The rate of extensification of animal production was found to have reduced more recently, principally due to the smaller effect of population growth. The area used for bioenergy was shown to be relatively small, but formed a substantial contribution (36%) to net agricultural expansion in the most recent period. Nevertheless, in comparison to dietary shifts in animal products, bioenergy accounted for less than a tenth of the increase in demand for agricultural land. Population expansion has been the largest driver for agricultural land use change, but dietary changes are a significant and growing driver. China was a notable exception, where dietary transitions dominate food consumption changes, due to rapidly rising incomes. This suggests that future dietary changes will become the principal driver for land use change, pointing to the potential need for demand-side measures to regulate agricultural expansion. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Genus &amp; genrer : forskningsanknutna genusdiskurser i dagspress

At the centre of this study lies the question of how research-related media texts contribute to the social construction of sex and gender conceptions when they use research, either as a main source, or to support or comment on specific issues and statements, from the political arena, for example. The principal aim of the study has been to analyze and problematize the ways in which different types of newspapers, genres and editorial sections reproduce, or contribute to change, in existing gender discourses. The material was collected from two Swedish newspapers during the year 2001: the national morning paper Dagens Nyheter (DN), and the national evening paper Aftonbladet. The theories of discourse, agenda-setting and -framing in this study are related to the questions: what kinds of knowledge on women and men, and biological, physiological, psychological, social and cultural perspectives on sex/gender are represented; how are they described; and how do content and form contribute to the (re)production of, or change in, gender discourses? The main analytical perspectives are those about gender discourse (re)production, genres as ideological forms, and the epistemologies of journalism. A combination of analytical strategies and methods was used: content and thematic analysis, and qualitative analysis of text and language with methodological tools from different traditions of discourse analysis. In my study, I can see an interplay between research traditions and genre conventions in the (re)production of gender discourses. Since the news sections repeatedly choose to publish research as empiric and in the form of results, and then within that, primarily findings from medicine and the social sciences, these areas are reproduced as important and relevant, and as producers of objective, true knowledge that can be presented as simple facts. Research-related texts in culture journalism, on the other hand, follow the tradition of primarily treating research within the humanities, and nowadays also gender and queer theoretical perspectives within different disciplines. Through the genre conventions of culture journalism, this research is reproduced as something that you can reflect upon, problematize, criticize, form an opinion of, and judge. The study also gives reason to argue that media logic and institutionalized genre conventions contribute to the reproduction of science and research as different worlds and cultures, in which the natural sciences and the humanities are found in different media spaces, and different forms of knowledge about sex/gender are given space on different conditions and in different forms

On Safety Solutions in an Assembly HMI-Cell

The increased diffusion of cooperation between humans and robotics in manufacturing systems is one of the next things to implement within robotics. Since the computer power gets more and more powerful, the possibilities increase to achieve safer working environment, due to that all safety signals demands fast management of data. This could lead to a possibility to work closer and more direct with a robot, using the robot as a third hand. Within an EU FW7 funded project called LOCOMACHs (Low Cost Manufacturing and Assembly of Composite and Hybrid Structures) there are one study focusing on how to support a future higher TRL-leveled HMI cell (Human Machine Interaction) in an assembly task. The main objective in this paper is to present how different external safety systems could support the whole HMI assembly cell to work properly in an industrial context. The scenario for HMI, in this case, is that an operator enters into the robot working area with the aim to perform an assembly task that need two hands. There are different support systems that could be applied to this assembly application, but every one of these needs to coincide with official standards to be applied in an approved industrial HMI assembly cell. The different safety support systems that are used in this research are light barriers, physical barriers and three-position enabler. These safety support systems are tested in a demonstrator assembly cell using a mock-up wing part. The tests with the selected safety support systems in the physical demonstrator will be compared with a concept that uses cameras to achieve the same degree of safety.LOCOMACH