Schumpeterian Growth and Endogenous Business Cycles

This paper looks at the linkages between growth and business cycles by bringing together two strands of literature. We incorporate a quality ladders engine of growth into an otherwise standard real business cycle model. We are interested in whether the process which leads to technological improvement over time, is also a good candidate for the process which leads to business cycles. We use a standard real business cycle approach to solve for rules of motion in our state variables and proceed to generate artificial time series. We compare the statistical properties of these series with their historical counterparts to determine if the model mimics the real world closely. One advantage our approach has over the standard approach is that the trend component is included in our artifical series just as it is in the data. Hence, we are not tied to any particular filtering method when we compare simulations with the real world data. Quantitative analysis reveals the model is capable of accounting for key features of fluctuations at various frequencies. Moreover, the model can do so without relying as heavily on highly persistent exogenous shocks as standard models must.

What Effect does the Size of the State-Owned Sector Have on Regional Growth in China?

This abstract will be reformatted upon submission. You don't need to format for line-breaks here!!!!! This paper tests the contributions of the size of state-owned enterprises as a determinant of China’s economic growth. The methodology is discussed in papers by Levine and Renelt (1992) and Sala-i-Martin (1997). We estimate regressions with growth of output and total factor productivity as the dependent variable and a variety of other factors, including measures of the size of the state-run sector, as regressors. We find that controlling for a variety of other factors, the greater the importance of state owned enterprises, as measured by the proportion of total industrial production they produce, the lower the provincial growth rate. The average estimate is that a decrease in the SOE share of industrial production by ten percentage points increases real GDP growth the following year by 1.14%. The average impacts of a reduction in the SOE share in employment are smaller in absolute magnitude and different for large provinces than they are for small ones. Large provinces actually have higher growth rates if this share rises, while smaller provinces have higher growth rates when it falls.growth regressions, China, State-Owned Enterprises

Is Schumpeterian "Creative Destruction" a Plausible Source of Endogenous Real Business Cycle Shocks?

This paper looks at the linkages between growth and business cycles by bringing together two strands of literature. We incorporate a quality ladders engine of growth into an otherwise standard real business cycle model. Our fundamental question is, can Schumpeter’s creative destruction process which leads to technological improvement over time also generate realistic business cycles? We use a standard real business cycle approach to solve for rules of motion in our state variables and proceed to generate artificial time series. We compare the statistical properties of these series with their historical counterparts to determine if the model mimics the real world closely. One advantage our approach has over the standard approach is that the trend component is included in our artificial series just as it is in the data. Hence, we are not tied to any particular filtering method when we compare simulations with the real world data. Quantitative analysis reveals the model is at least as capable of accounting for key features of fluctuations at various frequencies as a model with exogenous technology shocks. Moreover, the model can do so without relying as heavily on a highly persistent generating process for such exogenous shocks as standard models must.Schumpeter, growth, cycles, real business cycles

The Economic Reunification of Korea: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Model

This paper constructs a dynamic specific factors model to examine the impact of the economic reunification of North and South Korea. The model is a compromise between the highly stylized neoclassical models of trade found in the theoretical trade literature, and the highly aggregated models used in dynamic macroeconomics. We find that the policies with the biggest effects on aggregate output are changes in government tax and spending rates, particularly spending on infrastructure. In contrast, we find that both skilled and unskilled wages are much more responsive to the particulars of trade policy, particularly openness to intra-Korea trade and intra-Korea labor mobility. The location of production in a fully integrated Korean economy is determined by the location of infrastructure.factor mobility; dynamic general equilibrium; specific-factors; Korea

Specialization and Market Development as Engines of Growth

This paper constructs an original model of growth based on Adam Smith's notions of specialization and extent of the market. Growth depends on the specialization of labor in market production and learning-by-doing in transactions services. It is a model of sustained, but not infinite, growth. We seek to explain the following stylized facts. 1) The share of household production in total output has fallen over time as the economy has grown. 2) Services as a percent of GDP have risen at the same time. The model can replicate the above stylized facts for reasonable parameterizations. This paper shows that it is possible to build growth models that match the historic experience without relying in unbounded growth. Models like this may be very useful in understanding the processes that drive growth

A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of Korean Immigration Policy

This paper constructs a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model for a trading economy. We incorporate three major factors of production: capital, skilled labor & unskilled labor. We solve and calibrate the model using data from Korea. We then consider changes to immigration policy. We are able to examine the effects on output, consumption, wages, and utility. We do this for both the new steady state and for the time-path leading to that steady state. In addition, we are able, if we so wish, to impose a series of unrelated macroeconomic shock to the model. This has the advantage of allowing us to calculate confidence bands around our policy impulse response functions. We find that allowing skilled labor to immigrate leads to greater welfare gains in the steady state. We also show that there is a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the exact time path to a new steady state in the presence of the typical fluctuations associated with business cycles. We find a great deal of inertia in the transition to a new steady state

A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of Japanese & Korean Immigration

This paper constructs a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model for a trading economy. We incorporate three major factors of production: capital, skilled labor & unskilled labor. We solve and calibrate the model using data from Japan and Korea. We then consider changes to immigration policy in both countries. We are able to examine the effects on output, consumption, wages, and utility. We do this for both the new steady state and for the time-path leading to that steady state. In addition, we are able, if we so wish, to impose a series of unrelated macroeconomic shock to the model. This has the advantage of allowing us to calculate confidence bands around our policy impulse response functions. We find that allowing skilled labor to immigrate leads to greater welfare gains in the steady state. We also show that there is a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the exact time path to a new steady state in the presence of the typical fluctuations associated with business cycles. We find a great deal of inertia in the transition to a new steady state

The dynamic effects of changes to Japanese immigration policy

This paper constructs a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model for a trading economy. We incorporate three major factors of production: capital, skilled labor & unskilled labor. We solve and calibrate the model using data from Japan. We then consider changes to immigration policy. We are able to examine the effects on output, consumption, wages, and utility. We do this for both the new steady state and for the time-path leading to that steady state. In addition, we are able, if we so wish, to impose a series of unrelated macroeconomic shock to the model. This has the advantage of allowing us to calculate confidence bands around our policy impulse response functions. We find that allowing skilled labor to immigrate leads to greater welfare gains in the steady state. However, even with exclusively unskilled immigration, existing workers are made slightly better off on average when immigration restrictions are relaxed. We also show that there is a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the exact time path to a new steady state in the presence of the typical fluctuations associated with business cycles. We find a great deal of inertia in the transition to a new steady state

A Dynamic Model of Specialization and Market Development as Engines of Economic Growth

This paper constructs a model of growth based on Adam Smith's notions of specialization and extent of the market. We seek to explain the following stylized facts. 1) The share of household production in total output has fallen over time as the economy has grown. 2) Services as a percent of GDP have risen at the same time. In this paper growth depends on specialization of labor according to comparative advantage in production and learning-by-doing in transactions services. It is a model of sustained, but not infinite, growth. Indeed, the main point of the paper is that it is possible to build growth models that match the historic experience without relying in unbounded growth. The model can replicate the above stylized facts for reasonable annual GDP growth rates. Simulations show that inequality over the growth episode is characterized by an inverted U-shaped curve

A Dynamic Model of Specialization and Market Development as Engines of Economic Growth

This paper constructs a model of growth based on Adam Smith's notions of specialization and extent of the market. We seek to explain the following stylized facts. 1) The share of household production in total output has fallen over time as the economy has grown. 2) Services as a percent of GDP have risen at the same time. In this paper growth depends on specialization of labor according to comparative advantage in production and learning-by-doing in transactions services. It is a model of sustained, but not infinite, growth. Indeed, the main point of the paper is that it is possible to build growth models that match the historic experience without relying in unbounded growth. The model can replicate the above stylized facts for reasonable annual GDP growth rates. Simulations show that inequality over the growth episode is characterized by an inverted U-shaped curve