Are Errors in Official U.S. Budget Receipts Forecasts Just Noise?

Existing evidence suggests that U.S. Government budget receipts forecasts are unbiased and efficient. Our study is an attempt to examine the veracity of these findings. The time series framework employed in this study is distinguished from previous work in three ways. First, we build a model that explicitly admits serial correlation in the residuals by allowing for autoregressive, moving-average, serial correlation. Second, we employ the nonparametric Monte-Carlo bootstrap to free ourselves from reliance on asymptotic distribution theory which is suspect given the short data series available for this study. Third, we control for errors in the macroeconomic and financial assumptions used to produce the U.S. Government's budget forecasts. We find that the U.S. Government's annual, one-year ahead, budget receipts forecasts for fiscal years 1963 through 2003 are biased and inefficient. In addition, we find that these forecasts exhibit serial correlation in their errors and thus do not efficiently exploit all available information. Finally, we find evidence that is consistent with strategic bias that may reflect the political goals of the Administration in power. Working Paper 07-2

Management of invasive Allee species

In this study, we use a discrete, two-patch population model of an Allee species to examine different methods in managing invasions. We first analytically examine the model to show the presence of the strong Allee effect, and then we numerically explore the model to test the effectiveness of different management strategies. As expected invasion is facilitated by lower Allee thresholds, greater carrying capacities and greater proportions of dispersers. These effects are interacting, however, and moderated by population growth rate. Using the gypsy moth as an example species, we demonstrate that the effectiveness of different invasion management strategies is context-dependent, combining complementary methods may be preferable, and the preferred strategy may differ geographically. Specifically, we find methods for restricting movement to be more effective in areas of contiguous habitat and high Allee thresholds, where methods involving mating disruptions and raising Allee thresholds are more effective in areas of high habitat fragmentation

PRODUCTION DECISIONS WITH UNCERTAIN MARKETS: THE CASE OF BT CORN

The effect of marketing uncertainty due to consumer opposition over genetically modified (GM) grain is modeled in the context of a producer's decision to plant GM. The model shows that a tendency to plant less GM acreage and obtain premium prices for Non-GM grain is tempered by increased price risk.Crop Production/Industries,

Status-Quo-Bias and Voluntary Contributions: Can Lab Experiments Parallel Real World Outcomes for Generic Advertising?

Many commodities have programs assessing producers for generic advertising. Ads such as "Got Milk?" and the "Incredible Edible Egg" are a public good for producers. Most of these programs originally used the Voluntary Contribution Mechanism, but have now become mandatory because of free-riding. This research simulates both the economic and psychological details of the egg industry in experiments that produce strikingly realistic results. Because mandatory programs have recently been declared unconstitutional, we also the test the Provision Point Mechanism and show that observed low levels of free-riding for both mechanisms are the result of status quo bias.Marketing, H40, H41, M37,

SHORT-RUN INDICATORS OF FINANCIAL SUCCESS FOR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA FARMERS

Agricultural Finance,

Optimal Institutional Mechanisms for Funding Generic Advertising: An Experimental Analysis

Given the uncertain legal status of generic advertising programs for agricultural commodities, alternative voluntary funding institutions are investigated hat could provide a high level of benefits to producers. This experimental study simulates key economic and psychological factors that affect producer contributions to generic advertising. The results suggests that producer referendum play a critical role in increasing contributions and that producer surplus is maximized by a Provision Point Mechanism instituted by producer referendum with thresholds ranging from 68% to 90%, and expected funding from 47% to 77% of the time, depending on the level of advertising effectiveness.Marketing,

LAND VALUES AND ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATION

Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use,

Do rBST-Free and Organic Milk Stigmatize Conventionally Produced Milk?

Producers are continually seeking to differentiate their products in the marketplace. A common approach is via labeling where differences in production methods are marketed. Yet, positive labeling for the new product has the potential to stigmatize the conventionally produced product by highlighting perceived problems with the product. The net economic result can be negative to producers as the conventional product that dominates the market is stigmatized by the new product that has little market share, and this leads to consumers decreasing their willingness to pay for the conventional product. This experimental research identifies this stigma effect in the case of milk, where the presentation of rBST-Free milk reduces consumers' willingness to purchase conventional milk.Demand and Price Analysis,

Ferromagnetic resonance study of polycrystalline Fe_{1-x}V_x alloy thin films

Ferromagnetic resonance has been used to study the magnetic properties and magnetization dynamics of polycrystalline Fe$_{1-x}$V$_{x}$ alloy films with $0\leq x < 0.7$. Films were produced by co-sputtering from separate Fe and V targets, leading to a composition gradient across a Si substrate. FMR studies were conducted at room temperature with a broadband coplanar waveguide at frequencies up to 50 GHz using the flip-chip method. The effective demagnetization field $4 \pi M_{\mathrm{eff}}$ and the Gilbert damping parameter $\alpha$ have been determined as a function of V concentration. The results are compared to those of epitaxial FeV films

Coin Tossing is Strictly Weaker Than Bit Commitment

We define cryptographic assumptions applicable to two mistrustful parties who each control two or more separate secure sites between which special relativity guarantees a time lapse in communication. We show that, under these assumptions, unconditionally secure coin tossing can be carried out by exchanges of classical information. We show also, following Mayers, Lo and Chau, that unconditionally secure bit commitment cannot be carried out by finitely many exchanges of classical or quantum information. Finally we show that, under standard cryptographic assumptions, coin tossing is strictly weaker than bit commitment. That is, no secure classical or quantum bit commitment protocol can be built from a finite number of invocations of a secure coin tossing black box together with finitely many additional information exchanges.Comment: Final version; to appear in Phys. Rev. Let