Observing Attitudes, Intentions and Expectations (1945-1973)

Although involved in projects of influent institutions like the Cowles Commission, the NBER, and the Michigan Survey Research Center (SRC), George Katona, the "pioneer student and chief collector of consumer anticipations data" (Tobin, 1959, p. 1) is virtually absent from accounts of the topics he explored, including the study of the consumption function and the development of behavioral economics. This essay argues that such an absence is partly explained by the theoretical underpinnings of Katona's project, which were incompatible with the economic views of behavior that dominated from the mid-1940s to the mid-1970s. It compares alternative survey programs funded by the Federal Reserve during that period, and analyzes the ensuing controversy on the purposes of the observation of attitudes, intentions and expectations. It claims that understanding Katona's approach "required a real restructuring of thought - a genuine paradigm shift" (Simon, 1979, p. 12), which gives specific interest to this historical episode

Income Uncertainty and Self-Reported Precautionary Wealth: Evidence from the Japanese Micro Data

Using unique survey data which includes information on precautionary wealth and its target, we analyze the precautionary saving behavior of Japanese households. Our findings are: 1. Measures for income uncertainty have a positive influence on the target for precautionary wealth but not on precautionary wealth. 2. The positive influence of income uncertainty on the target vanishes when older households with a head aged 51 or older are included in the sample. These findings suggest that Japanese households save against income uncertainty until around when their head is aged 50 and then save against other risks such as the longevity risk

Job Security Perceptions and the Saving Behavior of German Households

This paper investigates the co-movements of job security perceptions and household saving rates using data from the 1992 to 2010 waves of the German Socio-Economic Panel. The empirical analysis reveals that higher job insecurity is generally accompanied by slightly lower saving which suggests that employment and financial insecurity typically go hand-in-hand. When confounding changes in the perception of financial security are controlled for, slight evidence for precautionary saving behavior is found. This behavior is of rather small economic importance and limited to households that are somewhat worried about their financial situation who increase their saving by about 0.3%-points or EUR 100 annually in the light of increased job insecurity. In contrast, no significant change in saving is observed for households that are either very concerned or not at all concerned about their financial situation, i.e., either financially constrained or in possession of a buffer-stock of wealth.Diese Studie untersucht den Zusammenhang zwischen subjektiv wahrgenommener Arbeitsplatzunsicherheit und dem Sparverhalten deutscher Haushalte mit Daten des Sozio-ökonomischen Panels für den Zeitraum der Jahre 1992 bis 2010. Die empirische Analyse zeigt, dass höher Arbeitsplatzunsicherheit typischerweise mit geringeren Sparquoten einhergeht. Beschäftigungsunsicherheit wird also zumeist von finanzieller Unsicherheit begleitet. Bei Berücksichtigung der finanziellen Situation ergeben sich Anzeichen für Vorsichtssparverhalten. Dieses Verhalten ist allerdings von eher geringer ökonomischer Bedeutung und ist auf Haushalte beschränkt, die etwas über ihre finanzielle Situation besorgt sind. Diese Haushalte erhöhen ihre Sparquote um 0,3 Prozentpunkte oder 100 Euro pro Jahr, wenn sie sich Sorgen um ihren Arbeitsplatz machen. Hingegen lässt sich kein Zusammenhang zwischen Arbeitsplatzunsicherheit und Sparverhalten bei Haushalten finden, die hinsichtlich ihrer finanziellen Lage entweder sehr oder gar nicht besorgt sind, d.h. entweder durch ihr Einkommen restringiert sind oder bereits einen ausreichenden Vermögenspuffer besitzen