The long hold: Storing data at the National Archives

A description of the information collection and storage needs of the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) is presented. The unique situation of NARA is detailed. Two aspects which make the issue of obsolescence especially complex and costly are dealing with incoherent data and satisfying unknown and unknowable requirements. The data is incoherent because it comes from a wide range of independent sources, covers unrelated subjects, and is organized and encoded in ways that are not only not controlled but often unknown until received. NARA's mission to preserve and provide access to records with enduring value makes NARA, in effect, the agent of future generations. NARA's responsibility to the future places itself is a perpetual quandary of devotion to serving needs which are unknown

The long hold: Storing data at the National Archives

The National Archives is, in many respects, in a unique position. For example, I find people from other organizations describing an archival medium as one which will last for three to five years. At the National Archives, we deal with the centuries, not years. From our perspective, there is no archival medium for data storage, and we do not expect there will ever be one. Predicting the long-term future of information technology beyond a mere five or ten years approaches the occult arts. But one prediction is probably safe. It is that the technology will continue to change, at least until analysts start talking about the post-information age. If we did have a medium which lasted a hundred years or longer, we probably would not have a device capable of reading it. The issue of obsolescence, as opposed to media stability, is more complex and more costly. It is especially complex at the National Archives because of two other aspects of our peculiar position. The first aspect is that we deal with incoherent data. The second is that we are charged with satisfying unknown and unknowable requirements. A brief overview of these aspects is presented

Cluster effect for SNP–SNP interaction pairs for predicting complex traits

Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) interactions are the key to improving polygenic risk scores. Previous studies reported several significant SNP–SNP interaction pairs that shared a common SNP to form a cluster, but some identified pairs might be false positives. This study aims to identify factors associated with the cluster effect of false positivity and develop strategies to enhance the accuracy of SNP–SNP interactions. The results showed the cluster effect is a major cause of false-positive findings of SNP–SNP interactions. This cluster effect is due to high correlations between a causal pair and null pairs in a cluster. The clusters with a hub SNP with a significant main effect and a large minor allele frequency (MAF) tended to have a higher false-positive rate. In addition, peripheral null SNPs in a cluster with a small MAF tended to enhance false positivity. We also demonstrated that using the modified significance criterion based on the 3 p-value rules and the bootstrap approach (3pRule + bootstrap) can reduce false positivity and maintain high true positivity. In addition, our results also showed that a pair without a significant main effect tends to have weak or no interaction. This study identified the cluster effect and suggested using the 3pRule + bootstrap approach to enhance SNP–SNP interaction detection accuracy

Prediction of individual genetic risk to prostate cancer using a polygenic score

BACKGROUND Polygenic risk scores comprising established susceptibility variants have shown to be informative classifiers for several complex diseases including prostate cancer. For prostate cancer it is unknown if inclusion of genetic markers that have so far not been associated with prostate cancer risk at a genome-wide significant level will improve disease prediction. METHODS We built polygenic risk scores in a large training set comprising over 25,000 individuals. Initially 65 established prostate cancer susceptibility variants were selected. After LD pruning additional variants were prioritized based on their association with prostate cancer. Six-fold cross validation was performed to assess genetic risk scores and optimize the number of additional variants to be included. The final model was evaluated in an independent study population including 1,370 cases and 1,239 controls. RESULTS The polygenic risk score with 65 established susceptibility variants provided an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.67. Adding an additional 68 novel variants significantly increased the AUC to 0.68 (P-=-0.0012) and the net reclassification index with 0.21 (P-=-8.5E-08). All novel variants were located in genomic regions established as associated with prostate cancer risk. CONCLUSIONS Inclusion of additional genetic variants from established prostate cancer susceptibility regions improves disease prediction

Investigating the possible causal role of coffee consumption with prostate cancer risk and progression using Mendelian randomization analysis.

Coffee consumption has been shown in some studies to be associated with lower risk of prostate cancer. However, it is unclear if this association is causal or due to confounding or reverse causality. We conducted a Mendelian randomisation analysis to investigate the causal effects of coffee consumption on prostate cancer risk and progression. We used two genetic variants robustly associated with caffeine intake (rs4410790 and rs2472297) as proxies for coffee consumption in a sample of 46,687 men of European ancestry from 25 studies in the PRACTICAL consortium. Associations between genetic variants and prostate cancer case status, stage and grade were assessed by logistic regression and with all-cause and prostate cancer-specific mortality using Cox proportional hazards regression. There was no clear evidence that a genetic risk score combining rs4410790 and rs2472297 was associated with prostate cancer risk (OR per additional coffee increasing allele: 1.01, 95% CI: 0.98,1.03) or having high-grade compared to low-grade disease (OR: 1.01, 95% CI: 0.97,1.04). There was some evidence that the genetic risk score was associated with higher odds of having nonlocalised compared to localised stage disease (OR: 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.06). Amongst men with prostate cancer, there was no clear association between the genetic risk score and all-cause mortality (HR: 1.00, 95% CI: 0.97,1.04) or prostate cancer-specific mortality (HR: 1.03, 95% CI: 0.98,1.08). These results, which should have less bias from confounding than observational estimates, are not consistent with a substantial effect of coffee consumption on reducing prostate cancer incidence or progression.British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Economic and Social Research Council, Medical Research Council, and the National Institute for Health Research, under the auspices of the UK Clinical Research Collaboration Cancer Research UK. Grant Number: C18281/A19169 RMM and Caroline Relton (Integrative Cancer Epidemiology Programme) Canadian Institutes of Health Research the European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme. Grant Numbers: 223175, HEALTH-F2-2009-223175 Cancer Research UK. Grant Numbers: C5047/A7357, C1287/A10118, C5047/A3354, C5047/A10692, C16913/A6135 National Institute of Health (NIH) Cancer Post-Cancer GWAS. Grant Number: 1 U19 CA 148537-01 the GAME-ON initiative the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme. Grant Numbers: 223175, HEALTH-F2-2009-223175 Cancer Research UK. Grant Numbers: C1287/A10118, C1287/A 10710, C12292/A11174, C1281/A12014, C5047/A8384, C5047/A15007, C5047/A10692 the National Institutes of Health. Grant Number: CA128978 Post-Cancer GWAS initiative. Grant Numbers: 1U19 CA148537, 1U19 CA148065, 1U19 CA148112 the GAME-ON initiative the Department of Defence. Grant Number: W81XWH-10-1-0341 the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) CIHR Team in Familial Risks of Breast Cancer Komen Foundation for the Cure Breast Cancer Research Foundation. Grant Number: Ovarian Cancer Research Fund VicHealth and Cancer Council Victoria Australian NHMRC. Grant Numbers: 209057, 251553, 504711 Cancer Council Victoria Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) National Death Index and the Australian Cancer Database U.K. Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Programme of the NIH Research. Grant Numbers: HTA 96/20/99, ISRCTN20141297 Prodigal study and the ProMPT (Prostate Mechanisms of Progression and Treatment) National Cancer Research Institute (NCRI) Department of Health, the Medical Research Council and Cancer Research UK. Grant Number: G0500966/75466 Cancer Research UK. Grant Number: C5047/A7357 NIHR Biomedical Research Centre at The Institute of Cancer Research and Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust National Institute for Health Research Bristol Nutrition Biomedical Research Unit based at University Hospitals Bristol NHS Foundation Trust and the University of Bristol FCH, DEN and JLD are NIHR Senior Investigators MRC and the University of Bristol. Grant Numbers: G0600705, MC_UU_12013/6This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Wiley via https://doi.org/10.1002/ijc.3046

Pubertal development and prostate cancer risk: Mendelian randomization study in a population-based cohort.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies have observed a positive association between an earlier age at sexual development and prostate cancer, but markers of sexual maturation in boys are imprecise and observational estimates are likely to suffer from a degree of uncontrolled confounding. To obtain causal estimates, we examined the role of pubertal development in prostate cancer using genetic polymorphisms associated with Tanner stage in adolescent boys in a Mendelian randomization (MR) approach. METHODS: We derived a weighted genetic risk score for pubertal development, combining 13 SNPs associated with male Tanner stage. A higher score indicated a later puberty onset. We examined the association of this score with prostate cancer risk, stage and grade in the UK-based ProtecT case-control study (n = 2,927), and used the PRACTICAL consortium (n = 43,737) as a replication sample. RESULTS: In ProtecT, the puberty genetic score was inversely associated with prostate cancer grade (odds ratio (OR) of high- vs. low-grade cancer, per tertile of the score: 0.76; 95 % CI, 0.64-0.89). In an instrumental variable estimation of the causal OR, later physical development in adolescence (equivalent to a difference of one Tanner stage between pubertal boys of the same age) was associated with a 77 % (95 % CI, 43-91 %) reduced odds of high Gleason prostate cancer. In PRACTICAL, the puberty genetic score was associated with prostate cancer stage (OR of advanced vs. localized cancer, per tertile: 0.95; 95 % CI, 0.91-1.00) and prostate cancer-specific mortality (hazard ratio amongst cases, per tertile: 0.94; 95 % CI, 0.90-0.98), but not with disease grade. CONCLUSIONS: Older age at sexual maturation is causally linked to a reduced risk of later prostate cancer, especially aggressive disease.This work was supported by the World Cancer Research Fund (2011/419) and Cancer Research UK (C18281/A19169). The Integrative Epidemiology Unit (IEU) is supported by the MRC and the University of Bristol (G0600705, MC_UU_12013/19), and the Integrative Cancer Epidemiology Programme is supported by Cancer Research UK programme grant C18281/A19169. The National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Bristol Nutrition Biomedical Research Unit is funded by the NIHR and is a partnership between University Hospitals Bristol NHS Foundation Trust and the University of Bristol. The ProtecT study is supported by the UK NIHR Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Programme (HTA 96/20/99; ISRCTN20141297). Funding for PRACTICAL and the iCOGS infrastructure came from: the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme under grant agreement n° 223175 (HEALTH-F2-2009-223175) (COGS), Cancer Research UK (C1287/A10118, C1287/A 10710, C12292/A11174, C1281/A12014, C5047/A8384, C5047/A15007, C5047/A10692, C8197/ A16565), the National Institutes of Health (CA128978), and Post-Cancer GWAS initiative (1U19 CA148537, 1U19 CA148065 and 1U19 CA148112 – the GAME-ON initiative), the Department of Defence (W81XWH-10-1-0341), the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) for the CIHR Team in Familial Risks of Breast Cancer, Komen Foundation for the Cure, the Breast Cancer Research Foundation, and the Ovarian Cancer Research Fund. We acknowledge support from the NIHR to the Biomedical Research Centre at The Institute of Cancer Research and The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from BioMed Central via http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12916-016-0602-

The effects of height and BMI on prostate cancer incidence and mortality:a Mendelian randomization study in 20,848 cases and 20,214 controls from the PRACTICAL consortium

Background\ud \ud Epidemiological studies suggest a potential role for obesity and determinants of adult stature in prostate cancer risk and mortality, but the relationships described in the literature are complex. To address uncertainty over the causal nature of previous observational findings, we investigated associations of height- and adiposity-related genetic variants with prostate cancer risk and mortality.\ud \ud Methods\ud \ud We conducted a case–control study based on 20,848 prostate cancers and 20,214 controls of European ancestry from 22 studies in the PRACTICAL consortium. We constructed genetic risk scores that summed each man’s number of height and BMI increasing alleles across multiple single nucleotide polymorphisms robustly associated with each phenotype from published genome-wide association studies.\ud \ud Results\ud \ud The genetic risk scores explained 6.31 and 1.46 % of the variability in height and BMI, respectively. There was only weak evidence that genetic variants previously associated with increased BMI were associated with a lower prostate cancer risk (odds ratio per standard deviation increase in BMI genetic score 0.98; 95 % CI 0.96, 1.00; p = 0.07). Genetic variants associated with increased height were not associated with prostate cancer incidence (OR 0.99; 95 % CI 0.97, 1.01; p = 0.23), but were associated with an increase (OR 1.13; 95 % CI 1.08, 1.20) in prostate cancer mortality among low-grade disease (p heterogeneity, low vs. high grade <0.001). Genetic variants associated with increased BMI were associated with an increase (OR 1.08; 95 % CI 1.03, 1.14) in all-cause mortality among men with low-grade disease (p heterogeneity = 0.03).\ud \ud Conclusions\ud \ud We found little evidence of a substantial effect of genetically elevated height or BMI on prostate cancer risk, suggesting that previously reported observational associations may reflect common environmental determinants of height or BMI and prostate cancer risk. Genetically elevated height and BMI were associated with increased mortality (prostate cancer-specific and all-cause, respectively) in men with low-grade disease, a potentially informative but novel finding that requires replication

Blood lipids and prostate cancer: a Mendelian randomization analysis.

Genetic risk scores were used as unconfounded instruments for specific lipid traits (Mendelian randomization) to assess whether circulating lipids causally influence prostate cancer risk. Data from 22,249 prostate cancer cases and 22,133 controls from 22 studies within the international PRACTICAL consortium were analyzed. Allele scores based on single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) previously reported to be uniquely associated with each of low-density lipoprotein (LDL), high-density lipoprotein (HDL), and triglyceride (TG) levels, were first validated in an independent dataset, and then entered into logistic regression models to estimate the presence (and direction) of any causal effect of each lipid trait on prostate cancer risk. There was weak evidence for an association between the LDL genetic score and cancer grade: the odds ratio (OR) per genetically instrumented standard deviation (SD) in LDL, comparing high- (≥7 Gleason score) versus low-grade (<7 Gleason score) cancers was 1.50 (95% CI: 0.92, 2.46; P = 0.11). A genetically instrumented SD increase in TGs was weakly associated with stage: the OR for advanced versus localized cancer per unit increase in genetic risk score was 1.68 (95% CI: 0.95, 3.00; P = 0.08). The rs12916-T variant in 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-CoA reductase (HMGCR) was inversely associated with prostate cancer (OR: 0.97; 95% CI: 0.94, 1.00; P = 0.03). In conclusion, circulating lipids, instrumented by our genetic risk scores, did not appear to alter prostate cancer risk. We found weak evidence that higher LDL and TG levels increase aggressive prostate cancer risk, and that a variant in HMGCR (that mimics the LDL lowering effect of statin drugs) reduces risk. However, inferences are limited by sample size and evidence of pleiotropy.C. J. B. is funded by the Wellcome Trust 4-year studentship WT083431MA. The Integrative Cancer Epidemiology Programme is supported by Cancer Research UK programme grant C18281/A19169. The MRC IEU is supported by the Medical Research Council and the University of Bristol (MC_UU_12013/1-9). The NIHR Bristol Nutrition Biomedical Research Unit is funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) and is a partnership between University Hospitals Bristol NHS Foundation Trust and the University of Bristol. The CRUK study and PRACTICAL consortium is supported by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, European Commission’s Seventh Framework Programme grant agreement no. 223175 (HEALTH-F2-2009-223175), Cancer Research UK Grants C5047/A7357, C1287/A10118, C5047/A3354, C5047/A10692, and C16913/ A6135. The National Institutes of Health (NIH) Cancer Post-Cancer GWAS initiative grant no. 1 U19 CA 148537-01 (the GAME-ON initiative) and NIHR support to the Biomedical Research Centre and The Institute of Cancer Research and Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Wiley via http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/cam4.69