Strategic argumentation: A game theoretical investigation

Argumentation is modelled as a game where the payoffs are measured in terms of the probability that the claimed conclusion is, or is not, defeasibly provable, given a history of arguments that have actually been exchanged, and given the probability of the factual premises. The probability of a conclusion is calculated using a standard variant of Defeasible Logic, in combination with standard probability calculus. It is a new element of the present approach that the exchange of arguments is analysed with game theoretical tools, yielding a prescriptive and to some extent even predictive account of the actual course of play. A brief comparison with existing argument-based dialogue approaches confirms that such a prescriptive account of the actual argumentation has been almost lacking in the approaches proposed so far

A VERITAS/Breakthrough Listen Search for Optical Technosignatures

The Breakthrough Listen Initiative is conducting a program using multiple telescopes around the world to search for "technosignatures": artificial transmitters of extraterrestrial origin from beyond our solar system. The VERITAS Collaboration joined this program in 2018, and provides the capability to search for one particular technosignature: optical pulses of a few nanoseconds duration detectable over interstellar distances. We report here on the analysis and results of dedicated VERITAS observations of Breakthrough Listen targets conducted in 2019 and 2020 and of archival VERITAS data collected since 2012. Thirty hours of dedicated observations of 136 targets and 249 archival observations of 140 targets were analyzed and did not reveal any signals consistent with a technosignature. The results are used to place limits on the fraction of stars hosting transmitting civilizations. We also discuss the minimum-pulse sensitivity of our observations and present VERITAS observations of CALIOP: a space-based pulsed laser onboard the CALIPSO satellite. The detection of these pulses with VERITAS, using the analysis techniques developed for our technosignature search, allows a test of our analysis efficiency and serves as an important proof-of-principle.Comment: 15 pages, 7 figure

VERITAS discovery of very high energy gamma-ray emission from S3 1227+25 and multiwavelength observations

We report the detection of very high energy gamma-ray emission from the blazar S3 1227+25 (VER J1230+253) with the Very Energetic Radiation Imaging Telescope Array System (VERITAS). VERITAS observations of the source were triggered by the detection of a hard-spectrum GeV flare on May 15, 2015 with the Fermi-Large Area Telescope (LAT). A combined five-hour VERITAS exposure on May 16th and May 18th resulted in a strong 13$\sigma$ detection with a differential photon spectral index, $\Gamma$ = 3.8 $\pm$ 0.4, and a flux level at 9% of the Crab Nebula above 120 GeV. This also triggered target of opportunity observations with Swift, optical photometry, polarimetry and radio measurements, also presented in this work, in addition to the VERITAS and Fermi-LAT data. A temporal analysis of the gamma-ray flux during this period finds evidence of a shortest variability timescale of $\tau_{obs}$ = 6.2 $\pm$ 0.9 hours, indicating emission from compact regions within the jet, and the combined gamma-ray spectrum shows no strong evidence of a spectral cut-off. An investigation into correlations between the multiwavelength observations found evidence of optical and gamma-ray correlations, suggesting a single-zone model of emission. Finally, the multiwavelength spectral energy distribution is well described by a simple one-zone leptonic synchrotron self-Compton radiation model.Comment: 18 pages, 6 figures. Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal (ApJ

Do Markets Respond More To More Reliable Labor Market Data? A Test of Market Rationality

Since 1979, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has nearly quadrupled the size of the sample used to estimate monthly employment changes. Although first-reported employment estimates are still noisy, the magnitude of sampling variability has declined in proportion to the increase in the sample size. A model of rational Bayesian updating predicts that investors would assign more weight to the BLS employment survey as it became more precise. However, a regression analysis of changes in interest rates on the day the employment data are released finds no evidence that the bond market¿s reaction to employment news intensified in the late 1980s or 1990s; indeed, in the late 1990s and early 2000s the bond markets hardly reacted to unexpected employment news. For the time period as a whole, an unexpected increase of 200,000 jobs is associated with about a 6 basis point increase in the interest rate on 30 year Treasury bonds, and an 8 basis point increase in the interest rate on 3 month bills, all else equal. Additionally, unexpected changes in the unemployment rate and revisions to past months¿ employment estimates have statistically insignificant effects on long-term interest rates

Impacts of abstinence education on teen sexual activity, risk of pregnancy, and risk of sexually transmitted diseases

Abstrac