On the Relationship between the Conditional and Unconditional Distribution of a Random Variable

This paper studies the relationship between the unconditional and conditional distribution of the same random variable, say Y, when the distribution of the conditioning random variable X is of a known form. The problem is tackled in the general case where the distribution of Y and Y given X are mixed. Attention is focused to two particular cases. In the first X is assumed to follow a Poisson distribution; in the second X is allowed to have a mixed Poisson form. Potential applications are also discusse

Memory-experience gap in early adolescents' happiness reports

Studies among adult populations show that estimates of how happy one has felt in the past tend to be more positive than average happiness as assessed using time sampling techniques. This ‘memory-experience gap’ is attributed to cognitive biases, among which fading affect bias. In this paper we report a study among 352 pupils of a secondary school in the Netherlands. These youngsters reported subsequently: 1) how happy they had felt yesterday, 2) how happy they had felt during the last month, 3) what they had done the previous day and 4) how the

Vagal Stimulation Modulates Inflammation through a Ghrelin Mediated Mechanism in Traumatic Brain Injury

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) releases a cascade of inflammatory cytokines. Vagal nerve stimulation (VNS) and ghrelin have known anti-inflammatory effects; furthermore, ghrelin release is stimulated by acetylcholine. We hypothesized VNS decreases post-TBI inflammation through a ghrelin-mediated mechanism. TBI was created in five groups of mice: sham, TBI, TBI/ghrelin, TBI/VNS, and TBI/VNS/ghrelin receptor antagonist (GRa). Serum and tissue ghrelin, and serum TNF-α were measured. Ghrelin increased following VNS 2 h post-TBI compared to sham or TBI. At 6 h, TBI and TBI/VNS/GRa had increased TNF-α compared to sham while TBI/VNS and TBI/ghrelin had TNF-α level comparable to sham. The highest ghrelin was measured in stomach where TBI decreased ghrelin in contrast to an increase by VNS. In conclusion, VNS increased serum ghrelin and decreased TNF-α following TBI. This was abrogated with GRa. Our data suggests that ghrelin plays an important role in the anti-inflammatory effects of VNS following TBI

A Hybrid Color Space for Skin Detection Using Genetic Algorithm Heuristic Search and Principal Component Analysis Technique

Color is one of the most prominent features of an image and used in many skin and face detection applications. Color space transformation is widely used by researchers to improve face and skin detection performance. Despite the substantial research efforts in this area, choosing a proper color space in terms of skin and face classification performance which can address issues like illumination variations, various camera characteristics and diversity in skin color tones has remained an open issue. This research proposes a new three-dimensional hybrid color space termed SKN by employing the Genetic Algorithm heuristic and Principal Component Analysis to find the optimal representation of human skin color in over seventeen existing color spaces. Genetic Algorithm heuristic is used to find the optimal color component combination setup in terms of skin detection accuracy while the Principal Component Analysis projects the optimal Genetic Algorithm solution to a less complex dimension. Pixel wise skin detection was used to evaluate the performance of the proposed color space. We have employed four classifiers including Random Forest, Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machine and Multilayer Perceptron in order to generate the human skin color predictive model. The proposed color space was compared to some existing color spaces and shows superior results in terms of pixel-wise skin detection accuracy. Experimental results show that by using Random Forest classifier, the proposed SKN color space obtained an average F-score and True Positive Rate of 0.953 and False Positive Rate of 0.0482 which outperformed the existing color spaces in terms of pixel wise skin detection accuracy. The results also indicate that among the classifiers used in this study, Random Forest is the most suitable classifier for pixel wise skin detection applications

The GYMSSA trial: a prospective randomized trial comparing gastrectomy, metastasectomy plus systemic therapy versus systemic therapy alone

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The standard of care for metastatic gastric cancer (MGC) is systemic chemotherapy which leads to a median survival of 6-15 months. Survival beyond 3 years is rare. For selected groups of patients with limited MGC, retrospective studies have shown improved overall survival following gastrectomy and metastasectomies including peritoneal stripping with continuous hyperthermic peritoneal perfusion (CHPP), liver resection, and pulmonary resection. Median survival after liver resection for MGC is up to 34 months, with a five year survival rate of 24.5%. Similarly, reported median survival after pulmonary resection of MGC is 21 months with long term survival of greater than 5 years a possibility. Several case reports and small studies have documented evidence of long-term survival in select individuals who undergo CHPP for MGC.</p> <p>Design</p> <p>The GYMSSA trial is a prospective randomized trial for patients with MGC. It is designed to compare two therapeutic approaches: gastrectomy with metastasectomy plus systemic chemotherapy (GYMS) versus systemic chemotherapy alone (SA). Systemic therapy will be composed of the FOLFOXIRI regimen. The aim of the study is to evaluate overall survival and potential selection criteria to determine those patients who may benefit from surgery plus systemic therapy. The study will be conducted by the Surgery Branch at the National Cancer Institute (NCI), National Institutes of Health (NIH) in Bethesda, Maryland. Surgeries and followup will be done at the NCI, and chemotherapy will be given by either the local oncologist or the medical oncology branch at NCI.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov ID. NCT00941655</p

Preventing mental health problems in children : the families in mind population-based cluster randomised controlled trial.

BackgroundExternalising and internalising problems affect one in seven school-aged children and are the single strongest predictor of mental health problems into early adolescence. As the burden of mental health problems persists globally, childhood prevention of mental health problems is paramount. Prevention can be offered to all children (universal) or to children at risk of developing mental health problems (targeted). The relative effectiveness and costs of a targeted only versus combined universal and targeted approach are unknown. This study aims to the effectiveness, costs and uptake of two approaches to early childhood prevention of mental health problems ie: a Combined universal-targeted approach, versus a Targeted only approach, in comparison to current primary care services (Usual care).DesignThree armed, population-level cluster randomised trial (2010-2014) within the universal, well child Maternal Child Health system, attended by more than 80% of families in Victoria, Australia at infant age eight months. Participants: Families of eight month old children from nine participating local government areas. Randomised to one of three groups: Combined, Targeted or Usual care. Intervention: (a) the Combined universal and targeted program where all families are offered the universal Toddlers Without Tears group parenting program followed by the targeted Family Check-Up one-on-one program or (b) the Targeted Family Check-Up program. The Family Check-Up program is only offered to children at risk of behavioural problems. Analysis: Participants will be analysed according to the trial arm to which they were randomised, using logistic and linear regression models to compare primary and secondary outcomes. An economic evaluation (cost consequences analysis) will compare incremental costs to all incremental outcomes from a societal perspective.DiscussionThis trial will inform public health policy by making recommendations about the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of these early prevention programs. If effective prevention programs can be implemented at the population level, the growing burden of mental health problems could be curbed.<br /

Happiness Through Vacationing: Just a Temporary Boost or Long-Term Benefits?

Does vacationing add to our happiness in the long run? This question was addressed in a study of 3,650 Dutch citizens who reported their leisure travel every 3 months during 2 years and rated their happiness at the end of each year. Participants who had been on vacation appeared to be marginally happier, in terms of hedonic level of affect, than those who had not. This difference in Affect balance between vacationers and non-vacationers is probably due to a very minor causal effect of vacationing on hedonic level of affect. Possibly, vacationing is positively reminisced and these memories allow for the prevalence of more positive affect in people's lives. Happiness did not predict vacationing. The effect of holiday trips on vacationers' happiness is mostly short-lived; among vacationers, happiness was unrelated to the number of trips and days spent on vacation. A separate analysis of vacationers, who value vacationing most, yielded the same results. Implications for future research are discussed

Quantifying Variability of Avian Colours: Are Signalling Traits More Variable?

Background Increased variability in sexually selected ornaments, a key assumption of evolutionary theory, is thought to be maintained through condition-dependence. Condition-dependent handicap models of sexual selection predict that (a) sexually selected traits show amplified variability compared to equivalent non-sexually selected traits, and since males are usually the sexually selected sex, that (b) males are more variable than females, and (c) sexually dimorphic traits more variable than monomorphic ones. So far these predictions have only been tested for metric traits. Surprisingly, they have not been examined for bright coloration, one of the most prominent sexual traits. This omission stems from computational difficulties: different types of colours are quantified on different scales precluding the use of coefficients of variation. Methodology/Principal Findings Based on physiological models of avian colour vision we develop an index to quantify the degree of discriminable colour variation as it can be perceived by conspecifics. A comparison of variability in ornamental and non-ornamental colours in six bird species confirmed (a) that those coloured patches that are sexually selected or act as indicators of quality show increased chromatic variability. However, we found no support for (b) that males generally show higher levels of variability than females, or (c) that sexual dichromatism per se is associated with increased variability. Conclusions/Significance We show that it is currently possible to realistically estimate variability of animal colours as perceived by them, something difficult to achieve with other traits. Increased variability of known sexually-selected/quality-indicating colours in the studied species, provides support to the predictions borne from sexual selection theory but the lack of increased overall variability in males or dimorphic colours in general indicates that sexual differences might not always be shaped by similar selective forces

The mir-51 Family of microRNAs Functions in Diverse Regulatory Pathways in Caenorhabditis elegans

The mir-51 family of microRNAs (miRNAs) in C. elegans are part of the deeply conserved miR-99/100 family. While loss of all six family members (mir-51-56) in C. elegans results in embryonic lethality, loss of individual mir-51 family members results in a suppression of retarded developmental timing defects associated with the loss of alg-1. The mechanism of this suppression of developmental timing defects is unknown. To address this, we characterized the function of the mir-51 family in the developmental timing pathway. We performed genetic analysis and determined that mir-51 family members regulate the developmental timing pathway in the L2 stage upstream of hbl-1. Loss of the mir-51 family member, mir-52, suppressed retarded developmental timing defects associated with the loss of let-7 family members and lin-46. Enhancement of precocious defects was observed for mutations in lin-14, hbl-1, and mir-48(ve33), but not later acting developmental timing genes. Interestingly, mir-51 family members showed genetic interactions with additional miRNA-regulated pathways, which are regulated by the let-7 and mir-35 family miRNAs, lsy-6, miR-240/786, and miR-1. Loss of mir-52 likely does not suppress miRNA-regulated pathways through an increase in miRNA biogenesis or miRNA activity. We found no increase in the levels of four mature miRNAs, let-7, miR-58, miR-62 or miR-244, in mir-52 or mir-52/53/54/55/56 mutant worms. In addition, we observed no increase in the activity of ectopic lsy-6 in the repression of a downstream target in uterine cells in worms that lack mir-52. We propose that the mir-51 family functions broadly through the regulation of multiple targets, which have not yet been identified, in diverse regulatory pathways in C. elegans